The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    538 daily forecasts Friday am

    By Flavius on Sat, 10/20/2018 - 12:00am |

     

    Chance of winning              

       House by the Democrats                          Senate by the Republicans.                                                                 Oct 19                   79  %                                       ?84   %                                                                                           Oct 20                   85.1                                          ?84                                                                                             Oct 21                   84.8                                           78. 5                                                                                             Oct 22.                  86.1                                           79.2                                                                                           Oct 22 9pm            86.5                                           78.4                                                                                              Oct 23 9pm            85.1                                           81.3                                                                                             Oct 24 9 pm           83.9                                           82.4                                                                                              Oct 25 9pm            83.8                                           83.0                                                                                            Oct 26 9pm            84.8                        ...                82.2                                                                                           Oct 27 9pm            84.3                                           82.6                                                                                            Oct 28 9pm             84.8                                           82.6                                                                                        Oct  29    5pm         86.8                                           82.5                                                                                        Oct 30 noon            85.2                                           85.5                                                                                       Nov 1 10 am          84.2                                           84.4                                                                                       Nov 2 10 am          85.1                                           85.0

    Fridays new forecasts

    Senate       

    Fl                     Nelson          49                                 Scott              47       St.Pete's polls                                            WV                  Manchin        47                                 Morrisey        42        Emerson College                                 FL                   Nelson          49                                  Scott             47        Trafalcar

     

     

     

     

     

                                  

     

       

     

         

     

     

     

     

             

     

     

                                                                                                                                                

     

     

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    Comments

    deleted


    by Flavius on Wed, 10/24/2018 - 10:45am

    deleted 

     


    by Flavius on Wed, 10/24/2018 - 10:46am

    It's all about that Base - screw the polls - how many suppressed votes to GOP victory?


    by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 10/24/2018 - 2:17am

    Screw it all - just vote.


    by barefooted on Wed, 10/24/2018 - 2:40am

    There's a nice little  op-ed piece over @ The Hill of what Mark Mellman of The Mellman group felt he learned about current polling issues by looking at that "live polling" project at the NYTimes, with the following summary:

    All of which is to say: a. I learned something from Upshot polls, and b. quite different methods are converging on a reasonable expectation of Democratic control of the House with a pickup of over 30 seats.


    by artappraiser on Wed, 10/24/2018 - 4:02am

    P.S. Also @ The Hill: Bernie being pessimistic about the possibility of a "blue wave"


    by artappraiser on Wed, 10/24/2018 - 4:05am

    I'll continue posting my summary of  538 until election day.

    As follows. 

    1 issue at 9 am and 9 pm for House and Senate.                                                                                                      2 retain that continually updated summary until the election                                                                                        3 on each occasion  review 538's  "all forecasts"                                                                                                       4  if new data "merits " it,  report beneath the summary  for that day only.                                                                   

     


    by Flavius on Fri, 10/26/2018 - 12:06pm

    Why do I bother?

    Mostly for future analysis  after the election to  question whether movements in 538's data base during this period  will then in retrospective be seen  to have been predictive value of which we were not currently aware.

    Even more for curiosity value I have started to include 538's daily forecasts for the House & Senate for my own amazement to see the extent , if any, this current data is somehow reflected in its daily report of expected

    final majorities.

    Which in possession of such knowledge,plus $2.50 ,I'll also be able to get an MTA card.


    by Flavius on Sat, 10/27/2018 - 2:14am

    We could start a GoFundMe to help with your MTA...?


    by PeraclesPlease on Sat, 10/27/2018 - 3:52am

    Very kind. But  I can just make  an announcement on my car and any passenger who don't flee at Lex are usually good for $2.50. 


    by Flavius on Sat, 10/27/2018 - 12:12pm

    Showing how seriously 538 is taken: people put money where it's mouth is:


    by artappraiser on Sun, 10/28/2018 - 11:17pm

    538 tells you  about the bells& whistles. Not true that a forecast is a forecast. Each one is weighted to correct past partianship . Ancad separately weighted overall as to the extent its included in the final  number;

    Let us say. 538 believes  Rasmussen's  poll of Republicans should  be reduced by  10%. So Rep 58, Dem 42 might be changed to rep 53 Dem 42

    Which  in turn is reported  as 56 Rep (53 divided by 95)

                                   

    So 538 just reports the final result  of all this as  Rep 56 Dem 44.

    Along with a bunch of adjustments ..

    Whatever, it worked last time.We'll see.

    Meanwhile until Nate stubbs his toe I use his numbers,

    BAD EXPLANATION but I was falling asleep and

    now I'm sick of it

     


    by Flavius on Mon, 10/29/2018 - 10:59pm