The 2nd most important election for Americans (after Obama/McCain) was held today. And I just voted.

More important than the North Carolina or Minnesota Senate race, or who is Governor of California or Mayor of New York, more important than runs Britain, France or Germany. Today's election will have more influence on how a President Obama tackles energy use, foreign trade, health care or climate change than any of these. So I just know that - political junkies all - you're on the edge of your seat, family (and dogs) huddled over the shortwave, gnawing on your fingernails (leave the dog alone), awaiting the results... 

... from Canada.

I'd normally avoid any serious discussion of Canada by cracking semi-smart on moose/wolf/beaver, David Frum & William Shatner & Celine Dion, or just doing the usual Canadian duck & dive. But I can't be bothered with that schtick today. Because, though barely anyone in the US media (populace?) is aware of it, I meant what I said about the importance of this election. To Obama.

Here's the deal. Canada & the US are no longer textbook versions of "sovereign" nations. We're already heavily-integrated. Now, no American politician is gonna talk about this, and it's not in any Canadian's interest to emphasize it either, but Canada-US has quietly become one of America's most important relationships. Yes, China & Russia are more important, but we're talking democratic elections here, and last I saw, Putin losing the Presidency didn't really seem to matter much. Here's why this election is important to an Obama Administration. 

More excitement, apres le deluge...

1. Trade. The US - i.e. an Obama Administration - has to pump up exports & cut imports to stop the $700 Billion annual trade deficit bleed-out. And who's the largest trading partner of the US? Yeah, the Canucks. Larger than China. US trade with Canada is larger than Japan, the UK, Germany, France & Saudi Arabia's. Combined. Please re-read that last word. And that trade imbalance? Yes, China is important. But who's the #2 US trade deficit with? The "People of the Toque." Obama will need to "fix" this & respond to a deep recession, but without triggering a protectionist war. NAFTA is central here. 

2. Energy. Who's the #1 supplier of oil to the US? The Saudis, right? Errrr, no. It's dear ole Canuckistan. The US gets more petroleum from Canada than from the Saudis, the Iraqis & the Russians combined. And long-term? That "Drill, baby, drill" thing? Nobody in the energy industry seriously thinks the US is going to make it from domestic sources. The only way it has a chance to replace Middle Eastern oil is by drilling the hell out of Canada. More precisely, the oilsands of Alberta. The oilsands have been toured, repeatedly, by the major American political, military & business leaders... because there's more oil there than in Saudi Arabia. Right now, a $100 billion plus building boom is rolling out there, which might be fine, if it weren't for the fact that the oil produced is filthy. It requires incredible quantities of water & natural gas to extract the goo, and refine it. Oilsands oil also produces CO2 like crazy. Which means, from Arnie to Obama to Ottawa, there's gonna have to be a massive joint effort to reduce those emissions, if the oil is to be tapped.

I'd keep going, but I suspect you're asleep already. I suspect you really don't want to hear about: 3. How Ontario produces more vehicles than Michigan - so the retooling of the Big 3 has to be done bi-nationally. 4. How Canada is set to bridge the Kyoto signatories & the new Obama Admin. 5. How Canadian troops have taken the highest casualties proportionally of any nation in Afghanistan. 6. How Canada now has the strongest banking system in the G7, and its banks are looking to buy-out large American banks. 

No, eh? Good. Me neither.

7. Health Care. One last issue. In 1970, both nations spent ~7% of their GDP on health. Today, the US spends ~16%, and Canada, ~10%. Yet Canada's health outcomes are better. That's 6% of GDP we've freed up. In the US, this would equal $700 billion each year in free cash. So for a comparable populace with a relevant system, look North.

Ok, the sharp edge. An Obama Administration has committed to eliminating oil imports from the Middle East, to transform the Big Three, reduce health care costs, fix Afghanistan, cut CO2 emissions, recapitalize the banks, slash the trade deficit, etc. 

He's gonna need a friend amongst the Moose. 

So I voted. Pretty easy. You get a card in the mail, take along a piece of ID (driver's license, utility bill) and... vote. If you're not registered, you bring a bill, and a friend. You vote just for the Federal candidate. No "down ticket." Paper ballots. Done. Other than the old ladies in their walkers, pretty smooth overall. 

Hardest part is that there are 5 real parties. The likely winner of a Minority Government tonight will get that with 34%-36% of the vote (the Conservatives.) Why? Because the other 4 parties are ALL center-left. (Sigh.) The Conservatives are headed by a mean-spirited ex-think tank ideologue of the New Right, based in the oil patch - and whose closest advisors are New Right/Republicans from the US. In short, the guy's a prick. (Can I say prick here?) The Liberals (likely finishing 2^nd), are headed by a Quebecois intellectual, brilliant, but who can barely speak English. (Really.) An equally intellectual member of the New Democratic Party (think British Labour), will come 3^rd, his stridency having been sanded off by media training. The Bloc Quebecois, former separatists, now offering much weaker tea. And the rapidly-rising Greens, spoilers likely to take 6%-8% of the vote (and thus drive the liberals & NDP insane.)

What I'm asking from you is just this. First, your prayers. (Visa, Mastercard & other powerful cosmic forces are also accepted.) Because above all, we cannot handle a Conservative majority. (Really, I can't. I may have to move to Texas. And yes, that's a threat.) But because of the vote-splitting, we may well get that. So just enough cosmic force to keep a Minority Government please. And second, I'm asking for your Rec, because there are many Canadians on this site. And many who have family & friends in Canada. And many who understand that our two nations are basically joined at the neck. But also because it would do all of us a lot of good if Senator Obama was inaugurated in January with some solid, progressive friends standing guard nearby. 

Ones from just to his North.

And besides. In case of a bad November result down South, we may all want to consider this potential strategy.

So please consider this an open-thread for any/all Canucks who wander through TPM tonight, or others who wish to poke their noses into the igloo to see what near-audible rumblings of discontent are about.

UPDATE: Looks like the Conservatives won around 145 seats (up 20), enough to form a Minority Government - with 37% of the vote (up ~1%.) 

The 2nd-largest party (Canada's traditional winners) the Liberals, fell badly, losing ~25 seats. They are likely to spend the next 6 mos. changing leaders. 

This could be bad news for the Center-Left, as the Conservatives can likely rule rule with less risk of being defeated in Parliament. 

The NDP gained 8-10 seats, and the Greens rose to nearly 7% - but no seats. 

Look for Michael Ignatieff (author, and ex-Harvard/Cambridge) or Bob Rae (Rhodes Scholar) as next Liberal leader. 

Pierre Trudeau's well-spoken & photogenic son Justin won election in Quebec.  Charisma seems to have carried over as well.