Breathe

    By Flavius on Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:41pm |

    Which was my advice when the August employment numbers were released.

    Same today.There are some days when something significant happens. Today like September 7th wasn't one of them. If either August or September had been up 300,000, that would have been significant. But not 100K and change.

    Another non significant day was Debate Tuesday.Nothing happened then either.

    Can you think of anything Obama said which caused anyone-anyone- intending to vote for him to change her mind? Of course Romney swayed some undecideds. Who now support him. Some  of whom probably will still do despite the fact- checking revelations of his lies.

    Obama IM not so HO came to play pre'vent.Which, as is usually is the case, resulted in team Romney dancing in the end zone. But after taking a week off the clock.

    Romney had come to play.Or more accurately to perform. Carefully drilled on how to move, wave his hands,and over ride the moderator.And , graduate with simultaneous degrees from Harvard Law and the Business School, he did exactly what he'd been taught.

    And he's still behind.

    Just as it would have been improportionate  to rend our garments over the August employment report or  take a victory lap over today's one, it.s similarly wrong  to treat Tuesday as a significant event in this interminable election.

    Just another day at the office.

    Nor , pace the commentariat ,should affable balding Biden appear at next week's showdown at the VP corral with six guns blazing. God forbid he should  emulate Lieberman's romance with Cheney. Rather he could be good old Joe, chatting up the Amtrack conductors or HenryLewis Gatesand that Cambridge cop over a beer.

    Let Ryan do his dance in the end zone. Let's do ours Nov 7. 

     

     

    Comments

    This inane and out-of-touch election campaign is - mercifully - almost over.  Progressives have been laying low during the campaign of bipartisan stupidity, and have been keeping relatively quiet to allow Obama to dispatch Romney.  But as soon as the election is over, the progressive lion is going to roar and unload its pent up potential.

    The moribund and corrupt Democratic Party of Holder, Geithner, Bowles, Rubin is about to get washed away.

    .


    by Dan Kervick on Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:36pm

    Fair enough


    by Flavius on Sat, 10/06/2012 - 12:06am

    Terrific post.

    IMO, you are spot on in your analysis.  That's all.....

    except thanks.


    by Aunt Sam on Sat, 10/06/2012 - 12:03am

    Thanks. It helps being very old.


    by Flavius on Sat, 10/06/2012 - 12:24am

    Scarborough was pissed as hell about these new figures.

    Some kid (for me anyone under 35 years of age) spoke up with the 'facts' and I was astonished.

    First the new data included 80,000 jobs that were posted to previous months. That was astonishing all by itself since last month? they took some jobs away from July?

    Second, there is some tool used by the same organization that involves a polling exercise whereby it was determined that 800,000 jobs had been 'created' in September!

    Huffpo and Dailybeast and Washpo (I think) all confirmed this latter figure.

    Now Xmas is coming up and retailers are getting ready for the 'coming' Jesus perk in December.

    There is something happening here and I do not know what it is; the left is hesitant but the right is FUMING!

    My son deals in rental properties besides condo sales and he says:

    Dad, there is nothing available out there in real estate.

    And other sites note that some corps are buying up property for rental values and the basement as far as real estate values is up!

    If that frickin Mitt is elected, there will be 12 million jobs created because of what the current Administration has accomplished.

    But if Obama stays in his current office, Obama will get the full and I mean full credit for this phenomena.

    I think we are headed into boom times.

    No kidding!

    What this will mean for the lower--say 40%--is unknown. Whether inflation will kick in and really eat at current SS levels etc due to the national debt; I don't know.

    But tax monies will pour in nationally and on the state levels.

    At least that is what Carnack tells me!


    by Richard Day on Sat, 10/06/2012 - 5:30am

    Nope, they didn't take jobs away from July and August. These were late reports from companies that -for whatever reason- couldn't file their reports promptly during those months.

    I'm completely confused about the 800,000 jobs created in September.I'll check the sources you mention and any other I can think of and report  back here.

    Finally never argue with a Canadian, we might all want to go into exile there if RomRyan are installed.


    by Flavius on Sat, 10/06/2012 - 6:22am

    So far I've only found the unconvincing explanation that the 800,000 new jobs were people working for themselves. Hmn.

    Since I've failed at that assignment I'll try to compensate by  providing some background on the leading proponent of the 7.8% conspiracy:Jack Welch, CEO of GE forever.Or at least it seemed that way.

    In some quarters he's better known for having divorced his first wife to marry a white slipper attorney and then divorcing Ms. WS in order to marry the editor of the Harvard Business Review who came to interview him and stayed to enjoy his company (De Gustibus). Ms. WS was unamused by this and required Welch to give her an extremely large settlement.

    Welch will surely  find it more economical to just spread unfounded rumors about the Bureau of Labor Statistics.


    by Flavius on Sat, 10/06/2012 - 7:00am

    Okay, here are some links

     

    http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/10/05/number-employed-people-rises-873000-september-highest-december-2008

     

    Here is Andrew Leonard

    http://www.salon.com/2012/10/05/jobs_report_stunner/

     

    Here is a note regarding part timers

    http://www.newsmax.com/Economy/Jobs-Part-Time-Positions-unemployment/2012/10/05/id/458819

     

    I am on MSNBC RIGHT NOW and they confirm the 873,000 and also quote that nut job in Florida as saying there is a dem conspiracy but also McCain who is an imbecile and has been for almost a decade if not more.

    Oh well, what the hell.

     


    by Richard Day on Sat, 10/06/2012 - 7:12am

    "It's complicated" as they say:

    Erik Wemple : Unemployment-rate trutherism: A taxonomy

    He concludes

    So before Jack Welch and Stuart Varney want to talk about “mistrust” in unemployment numbers and other such unsubstantiated mush, they’d do well to steep themselves in PSU trends over the years.

    However, I will say that when things get this complicated most people will go with whatever spin they trust, whether Jack Welch, Fox News or Obama campaign, and reinforce their views.  Instead of admitting to themselves that these individual numbers are so complicated they probably aren't good  numbers to use for any kind of predictions at all, neither political or nor financial.


    by artappraiser on Sat, 10/06/2012 - 11:39am

    Comes to mind that this close before a presidential election when the economy has been bad for a long time that it's all about what people in swing states feel, see, and hear from friends and acquaintances (like should they know Richard Day's son) and not what government stats say. One or two months of government stats aren't going to change very many minds.


    by artappraiser on Sat, 10/06/2012 - 11:52am

    And if those stats affirm what they feel, see and hear, then those stats become significant politically, esp given that Obama is pushing "things are getting better - stay the course" and Romney is pushing "things haven't gotten better - change the course."


    by Elusive Trope on Sat, 10/06/2012 - 12:10pm

    My blog's point was the disparity between what's really significant and what is  media hype.

    Subsequently  Jack Welch has emerged from his presumably blissful if costly relationship with Ms. former Harvard Business Review editor and has introduced the conspiracy charge.

     

    Ah,old age.  He would once have known better. Like me he must have observed how difficult it is to organize business people to achieve an objective  even when they are paid to do so and they are operating in the open. Trying to organize a conspiracy within  the BLS to possibly sway an election, about which the people involved  have differing views sounds approximately like herding cats. 


    by Flavius on Sun, 10/07/2012 - 1:30pm

    Latest Comments