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    Hurricane Joaquin - Open Thread

    By trkingmomoe on Thu, 10/01/2015 - 11:09am |

    I hope all of you are getting ready on the East Coast for this storm.  Right now it is a Cat 3 and that makes it very dangerous.  It will be pushing a high storm surge like Sandy.  Also the satellite and radar images are showing a lot of moisture.  That means inland flooding also. There has already been heavy rain in the target area so the ground is very saturated.  This is a large storm so it will effect a large area out side of the eye land fall. 

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/120226.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

    There is an excellent article by one of the best weather blog on Gawker. It gives the tract and weather charts.  The author explains the science and what the charts tell us about this storm. 

    http://thevane.gawker.com/hurricane-joaquin-is-threatening-the-east-coast-heres-1733813478

    Here some tips for getting ready for this storm.

    Shop today for a weeks worth of supplies.  Keep in mind that you can lose power and water. So choose foods that are canned.  Don't forget a hand crank can opener if you don't have one.

    Paper plates, cups and towels are needed.  Don't forget the TP too.

    Batteries, flashlight, matches, candles and grill supplies.  You can cook outdoors after the storm if you lose power.  

    I always include peanut butter, tuna, canned meats and powered milk.  

    You should buy some bottled water but I fill all my pans and other containers that have lids with tap water. Also fill your bath tubs with water.  Have a bucket on hand to scoop water out to flush toilet.

    Get you laundry done before the storm hits.

    You will need a car charger for your cell phone.  

    Gas up your cars.

    If you live in an evacuation area, get packed and make plans to stay somewhere with friends and family.  Leave early if you can or send your family ahead of you.  Be careful about flooded roads.  Make sure you pick a rout that does not flood if you can.  When you are told to evacuate, get the hell out of Dodge.  Don't wait. 

    Take important papers and family photos with you.  A point I want to make is be sure to have 6 months worth of pay stubs because if you do have to file bankruptcy and your employer was wiped out also. You will need them to file thanks to the crappy changes to the bankruptcy laws.  Walk through the house and photograph each room for insurance purposes. It will help with your claims. 

    If there is someone in your household with serious health issues, get meds filled and on hand. Find a shelter that is for special needs if that person is dependent on equipment that uses electricity.  Then make plans for that person to go there.  

    Get everything picked up out side and put indoors.  

    Keep an eye on the weather bulletins. 

    Please take this storm seriously.  There are some models that are kicking out into the Atlantic but it is still going to be skirting along the coast. 

     

      

    Comments

    Governor Cuomo has released a statement.

    https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-urges-new-yorkers-be-prepared-heavy-rains-potential-tropical-storm-conditions

    There is some important information in it for this storm.  


    by trkingmomoe on Thu, 10/01/2015 - 12:21pm

    Update:

    People should be concerned about flash flooding in the Carolinas.  This is going to happen even if the hurricane stays off shore. Here is an explanation from Dennis Mersereau why this will happen on the coast. 

    http://thevane.gawker.com/more-than-a-foot-of-rain-is-possible-on-the-east-coast-1734067198

    The driving force for all of the big weather we’ll see over the next couple of days is that sharp trough in the jet stream that’s digging across the eastern United States this afternoon. The trough will grow even sharper by tomorrow, with an upper-level low (and eventually a low pressure system at the surface) wringing out a deep slug of tropical moisture in the atmosphere over the southeast.

    The result will be rain, and lots of it. We could be staring down an event that will shatter many all-time rainfall records, bringing with it the potential for a significant flooding event over a wide stretch of real estate.

     


    by trkingmomoe on Thu, 10/01/2015 - 5:13pm

    5:00 PM Update from the National Hurricane Center.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/011504.shtml

     

    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas well into Friday.

    2. A strong majority of the forecast models are now in agreement on a track farther away from the United States east coast. We are becoming optimistic that the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states will avoid the direct effects from Joaquin. However, we cannot yet completely rule out direct impacts along on the east coast, and residents there should continue to follow the progress of Joaquin over the next couple of days.

    3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches.

    4. Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products issued by local NWS Forecast Offices.

     

    It sounds like the hurricane will stay off shore.  This is good but there will be a heavy rain event and flooding.  Joaquin is now a Cat 4. 


    by trkingmomoe on Thu, 10/01/2015 - 5:44pm

    You might like to see the size of this storm. This is a large fall storm. I should say huge as it is now beating up the Bahamas. You can also see the moisture being pulled up from the Gulf north traveling up the coast.  It is the white line of clouds over Florida. You can see the movement. 

    http://thevane.gawker.com/heres-a-satellite-loop-of-joaquins-eyewall-lashing-the-1734162397


    by trkingmomoe on Fri, 10/02/2015 - 12:43am

    Here is the 5:00 AM report from NOAA. 

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/020842.shtml?

    KEY MESSAGES: 1. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas today.

    2. The forecast models continue to indicate a track offshore of the United States east coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic states, and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas is decreasing. However, there is still uncertainty in how close Joaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape Cod, and Nova Scotia during the next several days, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for Bermuda later today.

    3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches.

    4. Even if Joaquin remains offshore, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products issued by local NWS Forecast Offices.

    It look better now and will stay moving away from the coast.  There is still going to be a major rain event and flooding.  


    by trkingmomoe on Fri, 10/02/2015 - 9:27am

    The flooding in South Carolina is wide spread.  Some areas got as much as 22 inches. The pictures that have been coming in over the news has been devastating. This is a type of disaster that take a long time to recover from.  It can also change the politics. I know this from experience.  

    I hope every one that is a reader of this site is safe and dry. 


    by trkingmomoe on Mon, 10/05/2015 - 1:14pm