The way I *think* the country is configured is that the bulk of inhabitable land is pretty much along the coast. In the middle are oil wells and I not much water. They move the oil to refineries which seem to largely be on the coasts. Some of 'em have been damaged over the last week or so (In Ras Lanuf at least I think).

Maybe I have it wrong, but my impression was oil field workers in the middle were evacuated early - so I was sort of visualizing refugees trapped more on the coasts when I made that boat observation. Not sure if that's accurate.

And yeah ... backlash against peaceful immigrants was a terrible outcome (though hardly unpredictable considering the base-fear dynamic created).

The air defenses are worrisome. I was reading elsewhere these missiles were more a risk to lower altitude operations. Don't know what to make of it. Do sort of wonder if these reporters can track down where Libyan air defenses *really* are, how come the military can't as well (incompetence can never be counted out). Hope nobody gets shot down ... but someone probably will.

The analysis would feel more satisfying if it had accounted for: (a) the fact that there is actually a reasonably large (if poorly trained) ground force already engaged - what is the comparative strength between the opposing forces and what level of augmentation would be required to even the field (assuming we wanted to win this for the rebels outright). (b) The fact that prior to military intervention a sizable number (majority?) of Libyan tribes had already rejected Qaddafi to side with the revolution. This treats Libya as a unified national populace facing an external threat and doesn't account for the psychological impact on rebel-aligned tribes who could well view the attacks as supporting their cause; reduced fear of overwhelming reprisals (inability for heavy armor columns to move across the desert or ships to bombard cities) could solidify resolve against the regime. And (c) the reported high percentage of mercenaries fighting for the government vs. a seemingly native uprising. Again, there is a strong case to be made that the nationalist swing should go revolution/coalition while the significant increase in risk from air-strikes could cause someone in it for the money to think really hard about the odds of living to spend it.

I can see a bazillion ways from Sunday what we're trying here could go totally off the rails ... but it does at least deserve a discussion of how things could fuck up based on the real dynamics that seem to be in play. One big question mark this brings up is if Al Jazeera overstated the tribal support for the revolution - the reported council statements *seemed* pretty solid. If so, Qatar has some 'splanin to do.

This whole situation seems entirely different than Afghanistan - which is what this article uses as a template (and it isn't alone). Nobody in Afghanistan asked for crap from us - we demanded something, they refused, we invaded. It seems very unlikely looking at reactions there will be a good predictor of Libyan public opinion here. And thinking about it, as we're beyond the point of just stopping with a "never-mind" now, it doesn't matter much how anyone feels about this other than the Libyan people (and longer-term, Americans obviously). If they're happy, I'm happy; today they seem happier than yesterday. If the revolutionaries win they may be our friends - or at least friendly - and like us simply because we helped them (how fucking crazy would *that* be?). Maybe not. But damn. We could do worse things in the world than give 'em a chance rather than just mutter "they were probably terrorists anyhow" and let some despot (who we KNOW will finance terror acts when it suits his purposes) slaughter them. Those people don't seem like they suck to me - maybe I'm stupid.

This action seems defensible ... until, of course, the powers that be inevitably manage to bumble and botch the whole thing beyond salvageable positive outcome. Still, if our leaders somehow manage to magically not be lame - just this once - it doesn't have to. I'm hoping electoral pressures in Europe result in more effectiveness rather than the logarithmically increasing idiocy America's tend to induce ... seems to go 'bout 50/50 and Sarkozy does kind of have "idiot" written all over him when he gets to doing his politikin' thing.

(sorry to spew ... sussing out my own opinion, really.)