It's time Obama pulled the gun he said he'd bring to this knife fight.

I certainly understand the views of those who urge calm patience over rash analysis of polls and premature panic induced by the first readings of chicken bones. But while such advice may be appropriate for the jittery nerves of nail-biting Obama supporters, it does little to address the reality that the Democratic candidates, their strategists and surrogates might be doing too little too late.

The time has passed to simply accept Obama's poor showing at present. When I say poor showing, I don't mean opinion polls — they are only a part of the evidence, and not a very large part, at that. Again, those who advise patience have blamed much of the growing unease among Obama supporters on poor readings of poll numbers, which typically predict very little at this stage of the race. Yet even disregarding the polls completely cannot dismiss the rationale for serious concerns.

Let's start with what polls actually can tell us. If anything, they are a rough snapshot in time of voter preferences. By stacking together polls taken in the same time frame, the clarity of the snapshot generally improves, as data anomalies and outliers produced by some polls tend to be offset by other polls.

Today, most polls have Obama and McCain about tied nationally. The fact that the polls all say essentially the same thing is a strong indication they are accurately reflecting current voter sentiment.

Quibble if you must or say that it's about the electoral map and that Obama is ahead when individual states are measured. True, but Obama has lost ground on that map, as well.

Yes, there was a post-convention bounce for McCain that was entirely expected. But Obama had his bounce before that and has now lost ground to McCain overall.

Preposterous! you might say. Why, in that previous election, so-and-so was trailing or doing only slightly better at this point!

Except this isn't that election. In many ways, there has never been an election like this. Start with the first bi-racial presidential candidate in history facing off against the oldest presidential candidate in history, and it's apparent this isn't your father's presidential election. Certainly not your grandfather's.

My point is, history always looks a lot like now — until the moment it doesn't. And previous elections are an especially poor predictor of this one, which more than any in our history, has to be viewed in real time on its own terms. In other words, throw out the statistical presumptions, consider the playing field level, and realize that's exactly where Obama is today: even.

Is that where he should be at this point? I don't think so.

Maybe polling data from previous elections shows Obama is acceptably positioned to win. But as I have pointed out, historical data is untrustworthy in such a historically unique election.

Besides, a thorough examination of history would also tell us that the party in power during an unpopular war often loses. History also would say that the party in power during an economic downturn usually loses. And history would fairly shout that an unpopular war plus hard times equals a double whammy against the party in power. Throw in a wildly unpopular president and the chance to make history by electing the first African-American president. With these built-in advantages for the Democrats, Obama should be running 10 points ahead, if not more.

Whether those advantages hold water or not, for his own sake Obama needs to be running 10 points ahead now.

Have I mentioned that he has a funny name and is black? He had better build a commanding lead soon and not let go, lest his position becomes irreversible in the waning days or too many undecideds are swayed by some unidentified prejudice at the last minute in a tight race.

Not convinced by polls? Fine, forget polling numbers. There are other, more important reasons for legitimate concern.

One of those reasons is how convincingly each campaign is making its case to the low-information voters who will ultimately decide this election. And there can be little doubt, the McCain campaign is winning the information war. Here at TPM and across the political blogosphere, the consensus is that McCain and Palin are enjoying better mainstream press than Obama and Biden.

We speak of reporters being in the tank for McCain, and of entire news organizations — even those other than Fox News — riding the GOP tire swing. So we gripe and moan and wail about what bastards the Republicans are. And then we gripe and moan and wail about how unfair the MSM is.

Why do we react this way? Because we know the present situation gives McCain the advantage, and that worries us. As it should.

Oh, but things will turn around soon, some say. And why is that? What will change to make that happen? One thing, certainly, must change: Obama.

McCain's tactics — from his stump-speech lies to his lying ads to his sequestering of Palin — are indeed deceitful and wrong. McCain is getting better press. But in the end, the responsibility to win against McCain comes down to the performance of Obama himself.

It's critical to understand that McCain's better media coverage is not simply a reflection of media bias, at least not a bias for McCain per se. No, the disparity in coverage is better understood as the inevitable result of Republicans being more savvy when it comes to offering reporters what they crave: conflict, red meat and sharply worded sound bites. The GOP knows how to game the media. Democrats are notoriously lousy at it.

As others have noted, Obama's demeanor in interviews is distant, overly thoughtful, hesitant and wordy. What is called for is crispness, command, and a display of conviction tied to his positions and character. His sound bites aren't sharp. They don't offer a real element of conflict. Worst of all, they don't communicate his policies forcefully, succinctly or as memorably as the Republicans.

Obama's stump speeches are getting better, but they have many of the same problems as his interview style.

Obama's ads have lost punch, and for one simple reason: He has lost control of the debate and spends too much time explaining his policies in defensive terms instead of making McCain defend his own abysmal policies and record.

Will that approach provoke the GOP smear machine? Probably. But the ads with Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers are coming in any case. Better to counter them now if need be than to respond from a weaker position, when McCain has given Obama a reputation beyond repair with those low-information voters.

What's wrong with being assertive, packaging your message in a sound bite each day, and going on the offense out of principle and the conviction that truth is on your side?

Nothing is wrong with that if Obama wants to be the next president. There will be time to speak softly and carry a big stick after Obama wins. But he has to win first.

McCain is slicing him up good. It's time Obama pulled out the gun. And used it.