The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Reid sure seems to be ahead in Nevada.

    By kgb999 on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 7:34am |

    I'm going to open with a big 'ole caveat that our resident prognosticating expert thinks I'm all wet here. But to me, it sure looks like Reid is increasing his lead in Nevada daily. The biggest point of disagreement is the GOP crossover vote - he finds the number from the latest CNN/Time poll to be overly optimistic ... while I find it to be understated.

    To me, all evidence points to a significant GOP crossover. And there is absolutely zero to support the idea that Democrats would significantly vote for Angle beyond the fact that a lot of 'em proudly declare the party sucks to anyone who will listen - including pollsters. And seriously, can anyone really blame them?

    Anyone who knows Nevada politics will likely agree that all of these prominent Nevada GOP players have significant pull with specific Republican groups. I can't agree with a conclusion that discounts the strong probability that such a prevailing sentiment at the top comes with an accompanying amplifier within in the electorate - and these aren't the only examples I could have chosen. There just isn't any similar dynamic to point to from the Democratic side. I stand firmly behind my assertion that to whatever extent people would be unwilling to admit their true intent on a poll, it would be GOP members unwilling to admit they planned to vote for Harry Reid.

    Whew. Ok, that out of the way. Rasmussan doesn't let plebes like me use their internal data and his is the only other contemporary poll for the Nevada race. So. If you'd like to follow me along on my little vote-projection exercise, you'll have to deal with the CNN/Time Poll and my not-pudit-approved application of their data. Below is the breakdown of who respondents said they would vote for in the Nevada senate race by party affiliation.

    Candidate Democrat Independent Republican
    Reid96%38%10%
    Angle3%53%82%
    Ashjian*3%3%
    None of them1%5%3%
    No Opinion*1%*

    Convienently, the Nevada press is also breaking down the number of votes cast in Clark and Washoe counties along these same partisan lines. Now, it's late as hell my time ... so this is going to be kind of ugly looking. But what I did was calculate what the breakdown of votes cast looks like assuming the CNN/Time poll is accurate. These numbers don't count the Not-Reno/Vegas voters ... but the two counties projected hold the vast majority of voters in the state.

    Democratic Votes Cast
    ---------------------
    99,000 Clark
    21,600 Washoe
    --------------
    120,600 Total

      3,618 Angle
    115,776 Reid
      1,206 None


    Republican
    ----------
    82,000 Clark
    24,500 Washoe
    ------------
    106,500 Total

    87,330    Angle
    10,650    Reid
     3,195    Ashjian
     3,195    None
     1,065    Other
     1,065    Gop Bonus (Stat rounding)

    Indpendent
    -------------
    35,000 Clark
     7,500 Washoe
    ---------------
    42,500 Total

    22,525     Angle
    16,150     Reid
     1,275     Ashjian
     2,125    None
       425    GOP Bonus (No Opinion)


    -------------
    Totals
    -------------
    (113473    Angle Unadjusted)
    (  1490    Angle Bonus)
    114963    Angle
    142576    Reid
      4470    Ashjian
      1065    Other
      6526    None
    ---------------------
    +27,613 Reid (+/- 6% margin of error; range 25,956 to 29,270)

    269600 Total Votes Cast
    +10% - Reid current lead.

    So far, in the bellweather counties ... Reid seems to be looking pretty good.

    Note: due to the fun of math and statistics, the Republican breakdown in the CNN/Time poll adds up to 99%, the missing 1% was applied to Angle's tally. With independents breaking to Angle, the "No Opinion" response from that demographic was also applied to her tally. That is the "Gop Bonus" category.

    Comments

    Man, do I hope you're right.  Though I've been no fan of Reid's since he became Majority Leader, this would be a huge win for us (not Team Democrat, but Team-Not Batshit-Insane Americans).

    If Reid does win, it will be fascinating to watch how the media spins it.  I'm guessing they'll just forget all the gloating obituaries they've written about Reid, and jump to the next story proving their narrative of a Repub;ican Resurgence (e.g., if the Democrats lose "Obama's seat" in Illinois). 


    by brewmn on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 9:17am

    Team-Not Batshit-Insane Americans = Chicago Cubs.


    by quinn esq on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 12:35pm

    It wouldn't surprise me a bit if that's exactly how they would spin it in the event Reid wins. Bearing in mind that the GOP has generally done precisely what they accuse their adversaries of ... we've got to assume for the most part the media is controlled by republican-aligned interests.

    It will be interesting to see if their priority is going to be spinning against the Democrats or helping Rove et. al. break the back of the Tea Party ... and more specifically their hanger-on-in-chief  (Love how she puts that. "If nobody else steps up" ... as *IF* there aren't a half-dozen other folks jockeying for position at the moment). There are some indicators that the simmering tensions in the GOP might explode in short order.

    I can't help but wonder if the Republican strategists wouldn't like to at least try and make a serious run at the Oval Office in 2012. The idea that these wackos might actually nominate Palin (or someone like O'Donnell ... or Miller ... or Angle ... or ...) probably has Rove up with night-sweats. I can totally see them grabbing a "The Tea Party cost us our most important races" narrative with both hands and riding it for all it's worth.

    Neither media spin would surprise me. In some regards a Reid loss to Angle could be more problematical to the GOP than the Democrats (assuming Dems hold the Senate majority even with his loss). But good lord ... terrible for Nevada.


    by kgb999 on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 1:03pm

    I like that, the "Not Bat-shit Crazy" Party...I could get behind that!


    by stillidealistic on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 1:47pm

    I like that one, too.  What it lacks in inspiration it makes up for with modesty.


    by AmericanDreamer on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 1:56pm

    I sure the hell hope you are correct in this assessment. We need some hope going into Tuesday. I mean if O'Donnell and Angle loose, the two most dangerous wingnuts in the nation will not be able to do any damage.

    Now if they take care of Miller, only Curly Rand will remain.

    Of course repubs do not need a majority to keep doing damage anyway. They have already said there will be no compromise on anything.

    I just will feel safer if I do not have to hear giberrish from the craziest of the crazies.


    by Richard Day on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 12:45pm

    I'm not the only one who's noted the strange statistical game Ralston is playing in Nevada in obsessing on the "turnout edge". I figure it's all good because if Nevadans believe "That crazy lady" is ahead ... it can only help Reid.

    Ralston is the only one I've seen give any indication of how the state is going outside Clark/Washoe ... with 330,000 votes cast and "less than 4% edge to GOP". Just going with 4%, that's 158,400 dem to 171,600 gop. (.923 dem/gop ratio compared to a  .881 ratio in Washoe ... which means Democrats seem to be outperforming Washoe statewide). That seems to put Democratic voters up by about 900 votes statewide by the raw count. Using my formula, that increases the Reid lead by 11,616. I didn't put that number in my calculations because Ralston's reporting ignores independents and required some secondary calculations .... whereas the numbers I went with allow me to impute a margin of error.

    Ralston has posted newer numbers than the ones I'm using here for Clarke/Washoe (he ignores independents which make it hard to use what he's producing for my purpose ... I'm waiting for the RJ to give a full count). The new reported tally for partisans is: 141,291 Dem to 123,988 GOP. That's a 1.139 dem/gop ratio of votes actually cast. My numbers above have a 1.132 ratio.

    Even assuming equal crossover, the math is undenaible; Reid is winning at this point. The real question is how decisively and if Angle will be able to make it up.

     


    by kgb999 on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 2:28pm

    And one more clarification on the "rest of the state" number. Nevada voter registration is split 39/39 dem/gop *statewide*. Democrats have a concentration in Clark. Republicans have a concentration in Washoe - but there are a lot more people in Clark than Washoe. In order to *really* do that middle number right, you'd need to take the percentage of nevada voters in both Clark and Washoe, use the party affiliation numbers to calculate the breakdown of dem/republicans in those two counties, subtract these voters from the remaning population, and then interpolate a gop/dem break down for the rest of 'em .... ooooor you could figure out where the hell Nevada's website has hidden their break down of voter registration/party affiliation data by county and add everyone else up manually (anyone else know where the they've stashed that?).

    I didn't do any of this. So my 4% method there was pretty damn lazy - without accompanying dem/gop registration figures, reporting a "4% turnout edge" is really sort of a specious number. In some regards, Ralston's reporting is kind of pissing me off. He clearly doesn't know what "numbers geeks" need to properly geek out. We'll get real numbers from everyone by Monday at the latest.


    by kgb999 on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 2:58pm

    Thanks.

     

    A frivolous question. When will we know Tuesday night? Do we have to wait for remote E.Ds that trickle in Wednesday morning?


    by Flavius on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 3:37pm

    Pretty sure Nevada counties have all gone to e-voting. They have the capacity to release the "uncertified" results more or less real-time. Don't know how they plan to do it specifically though. If they do it like the primaries, there will be an "election night reporting" web site that gives the results as the pricincts check in.

     


    by kgb999 on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 4:44pm

    I hope you are right. Some fairly recent numbers coming out over on HP, don't know if you've seen them. 


    by Oxy Mora on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 3:34pm

    From your keyboard to God's eyes ... I hope you're correct in your analysis.


    by MrSmith1 on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 2:18pm

    New poll out from the RJ shows 49/45 in the favor of Angle (+/- 4%). Superficially, it seems to show a +1 GOP swing (but the data required to see if this is assumption is accurate has not been released).

    The sampling, made up of 42 percent Republicans though the GOP represents just 37 percent of Nevada registered voters, reflects a turn-out edge typical for a normal mid-term election and roughly reflects turnout trends during early voting.

    The Reid campaign called the Mason-Dixon poll "meaningless because the fact is that more Democrats have voted than Republicans so far." In sheer numbers, that's true, with Democrats out-voting Republicans by at least 10,000 among the more than 300,000 ballots cast as of Wednesday night.

    Most important takeaway for the purpose of the topic of this thread is that the polling doesn't appear support my main thesis of a GOP swing to Reid. I still stand behind it, but this poll doesn't support me. That acknowledged, unless things have changed substantially for this election, "sheer numbers" is what wins it. So, again. By the numbers Reid is certainly still ahead.

    I don't feel too bad sticking to my premise in the face of contrary polling numbers ... obstinacy of opinion seems to be the rule of the day ... those riding polling numbers to form their opinion don't seem to feel bad sticking to their "enthusiasm gap" assumption in the face of contrary facts on the ground; nor do the pollsters who are heavily oversampling Republicans.

    One other interesting thought. By the time this poll was completed - nearly 50% of the electorate had already voted. I wonder what effect, if any, that has.


    by kgb999 on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 4:07pm

    First off, I never take anything from the RJ as serious to consider when it comes to politics. I have to bounce their numbers with the Sun to find a happy medium I can live with that is closer to reality.

    Second, please define the difference between bat-shit crazy and an astute political maneuver?

    Too many people discount Angle as bat-shit crazy all while not realizing the political potential behind her candidacy. Even Angle is unaware of what's really happening.

    For example, how does one rationally explain that $14 million in campaign donates from a state where unemployment and the housing market is the worst in all 50 states?...it didn't come from Nevada. Also, why would anyone be interested in promoting a door-mouse candidate with no apparent political capabilities being a Senator?

    The real question everyone is not asking is who will really benefit from Harry loosing to Angle?

     

    ENSIGN

     

    Think about it. If Angle beats Harry, Ensign automatically becomes the Senior Senator for Nevada. And since he's up for re-election in 2012, what better way to prove to Nevadans they need to keep Ensign in office.. all sins forgiven...by having Angle parading around Capitol Hill making a political ass out of herself to the embarrassment of the state.

    There's some political power players involved in the Angle campaign that's running below the radar screen and even Angle isn't aware she's being played for a sucker to bring Ensign's 2012 campaign back from the gates of hell.


    by Beetlejuice on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 4:53pm

    Hmmmmmm. That isn't a bad thought at all. And his family has the cash on hand and the connections to funnel it. One thing seems increasingly certain: the support sure as hell isn't coming from the Rove-aligned camp.

    I was figuring the Koches were tired of being a piggy bank and wanted to move into a more direct position of control. The battle lines for the impending GOP bloodletting are kind of look to be shaping up quickly. They've moved ALL the money out of the party proper and Rove is pretty much sitting on the whole piggy bank - and just started throwing some notable firebombs.

    But damn. You're explanation is quite plausible. I know the belief Ensign is toast ... leaving Angle as the "Senior Senator" pushed my dad over the edge for Reid. I got the impression Krolicki sat out this race specifically because he liked the odds of fighting Ensign for a seat in 2012 instead of fighting Reid in 2010. Angle winning here would certainly complicate his situation somewhat.


    by kgb999 on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 7:56pm

    There's some other hidden power brokers at play here that don't want any publicity about their actions and maneuvers in the political arena to sway an election using money and whatever other abilities they have at their disposal. Angle is the perfect candidate...she's totally clueless she's being manipulated. Neither Lowden or Tark would have been so easily taken in...perhaps that's why Angle beat them both.


    by Beetlejuice on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 10:56pm

    Hey, you aren't taking into consideration all the independents in Nevada, most of whom are conservative. They are going to be voting for Angle. Those RINO's who are supporting Reid are all cast out of the Republican party & we HATE 'em.


    by ausscyn (not verified) on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 6:15pm

    Actually, I *am* taking into account the independents in Nevada. I have us breaking against Reid by 62%. But we aren't *all* idiots. Reid does pretty good on the fiscal conservative thing, he does great on gun rights, excellent on land rights, and kicks Arizona's ass every time they try to steal our water. And don't forget Yucca. Those of us who actually produce stuff aren't going to let you idiots screw up our state even worse than it already is.

    And just a quick FYI. A real independent would never use the term RINO ... let alone use the term "we" when discussing casting someone out of the republican party. Good luck with that "casting out" thing by the way ... ROTFLMAO. Hope you don't burst into a little ball of angry flames when the idiot-queen of Nevada loses. Because as of right now, she's losing.


    by kgb999 on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 8:19pm

    1.      AS we are all aware, while many of small businesses are in financial trouble, lots of big name companies are reluctant to expand businesses, even with adequate capital.
    　
    From what I understand, they might take into account that plenty of ordinary households are still facing Stagnant Income Raises  & Runaway Healthcare Cost, and beyond, say, low demand. 
    　
    Given, the choice is clear, which one is going a long way to desperately needed job boost, tax credit for 95% of middle class or others. 
    　
    2.      I hope strongly that Nevada also will take a bold action into solar energy space just like California. 
    To my knowledge, solar industry became cost completive with the counterparts.

    by hsr0601 (not verified) on Fri, 10/29/2010 - 7:53pm