The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age
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    Robert Gates’ Pentagon Budget-Cut Magic

                                   (by permission, Anthony Freda, www.anthonyfreda.com)  Thanks, Anthony.  Easy to sell war to us, isn't it?

    The blogosphere and print media are abuzz with Secretary of Defense Gates’ announcement of austerity measures, signaling that the President had charged him with decreasing the Pentagon budget in harmony with the shared sacrifices that would be needed in all segments of government spending. 

    Yesterday, Jan. 6, 2011, the number was announced often as $178 billion in cuts over five years.  Overnight it seems that some numbers-crunching wags did the math and found that $100 billion of the program and weapons cuts were allotted to other Pentagon projects.  Oops.  Today’s figures mention $78 billion in cuts over five years, and $100 billion sliding around to other columns in the budget.  ‘Investments’, some call them; 'Shifts’, others call them.  We would call them faux savings, like Lucy making lists of all the shoes and hats she wanted to buy, but didn’t, and trying to convince Ricky that she saved him money, when she only bought the sweet dress she couldn’t live without.

    The Pentagon’s base budget has doubled since the September 11 attacks; the $554 billion number the White House will offer to congress for the fiscal year starting in October is $12 billion less than Gates had wanted, but he will make do.  Please remember that the Pentagon budget is not the defense budget, and doesn’t include the cost of the wars.

    And the five-year defense plan amounts to almost three trillion dollars, still minus the wars.  The five-year cuts would amount to 2.67% of that number; 2.67 % of the Penatagon base budget.

    The Congressional Research Service estimates that the cost of the GWOT since 9/11 has been $1.12 trillion (pdf here)  Stare at that number long enough and you get dizzy thinking what that money might have spent on improving the lives of Americans who have bailed out banks, lost pensions, jobs, hope, sometimes homes…and are apparently about to be asked to sacrifice more.  Or be informed they will be sacrificing further.

    So what’s being jettisoned in the Pentagon budget?  At the top of the list is $15.5 billion for the General Dynamics Expeditionary Force Vehicle, an amphibious troop landing vehicle for Marines.  Its production is some 176% over cost already, and five years behind schedule.  Please also remember that cost over-runs are just normal business with Federal contracts; but in this case the Marine Corps Commandant agrees with Gates, and instead the Marines will buy a new fleet of vehicles to land rifle squads on land from the sea.   

    Some Republicans aren't happy about the cuts.  Representative Todd Akin, a Missouri Republican, said yesterday about the cuts to the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle, “Do we as a nation think that the Marine Corps should be able to get from ships to the shore in a battle? If so, cutting the EFV is absurd,  If the president and the secretary of Defense want to get rid of the Marine Corps, they should come out and say that directly.”

    A Raytheon ground- launched defensive missile system for the Army will be canceled, Gates said, and the Marine version of a Lockheed Martin F-35 jet will be slowed by two years, he said.  Slowed by two years.

    Army troop levels will be reduced by 27,000, about 4.7 percent, starting in 2015 and the Marines’ head count will decline by about 20,000, about 9.8 percent, Gates said, given his projections for a possible turnover of security in Afghanistan.   Gates also announced he will send an additional 3,000 troops to Afghanistan ahead of the planned draw-down next summer. (Keep your eye on that number, please, as summer draw-downs commence.)  They will head south to Kandahar, O Kandahar!, where the Taliban still rule, and are proving harder to dislodge than early estimates foretold.  You will remember that the region was to be last summer’s showcase COIN strategy success.

    Gates plans to cut the number of private military contractors by nearly a third over the next three years, maintain a freeze on civilian military salaries, and raise health-care premiums for military retirees and their families for the first time since 1995. Congress may not approve that item, though.  He also said he would shrink the number of generals and admirals from about 900 to 800.

    What systems and products are the winners in the defense lottery?  Oh, please let me just cut and paste from Bloomberg:

    About $70 billion from cost-cutting programs will be plowed back into new purchases in the next five years, Gates said.

    The Air Force will buy more Reaper drones made by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems of San Diego; increase the purchase of the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle, a launch rockets made by a joint venture of Chicago-based Boeing Co. and Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed Martin; and upgrade radars on board Boeing’s F-15 jet fighters, Gates said.

    The Navy will invest in a new generation of electronic jammers that neutralize enemy radar, allowing U.S. ships and planes to operate freely, Gates said. It will begin development of a seaborne unmanned strike and surveillance plane and will purchase a destroyer, a Littoral Combat Ship and fleet oilers, he said.

    Purchases from Boeing

    The sea service also will buy 41 more Boeing-made F/A-18 jet fighters to compensate for the delay in Lockheed’s F-35 program, according to a Pentagon document sent to lawmakers.

    The Army will upgrade its fleet of General Dynamics-made Abrams tanks, Stryker combat vehicles and Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Gates said. It will begin fielding a new communications system for soldiers on the battlefield, he said.

    Here’s more on the Winners and Losers.  The stock market is jiggling numbers already, of course. 

    God/Goddess bless the United States of America, and all of us.

    (courtesy of Anthony Freda At www.AnthonyFreda.com)  Artiste extraordinaire.

    (cross-posted at my.firedoglake.com)

    Comments

    This is complicated Stardust and I do not wish to pretend to know that which I am not sure of.

    But three trillion bucks. damn!

    And how many folks are hired overseas in all this?

    Thank you for this post.


    As they say, a trillion here, a trillion there, sooner or later it starts to add up to some real money.  Overseas?  You mean the 1000+ bases?  Or the contractors?  That's a horse of another color; not all are soldiers; it's a way to spread American largesse, in a way.  War as economic development, bypassing the NGOs, which are often corrupt and wasteful, as Oxfam tells us repeatedly.

    If we had even put half of this money into individual pockets, it would have done more good.  This is so depressing, DD.  The TAPI pipeline agreement was just signed (hat tip: Edger, FDL), so look for us to be providing security into the future. 

    http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=233:afghanistan-the-tapi-pipeline-and-energy-geopolitics&catid=103:energysecurityissuecontent&Itemid=358


    How soon will quintilion come into common usage?


    Just as soon as the international oligarchists figure it out. ha


    Maybe for a bit we'll use 'a thousand trillion' like the British do; that may not scare the horses taxpayers commonfolk quite as much. 


    It is bizarre beyond measure that, as a people, without there ever having been any actual consideration of the alternativees, we undertake to spend without limit on the instruments of death. As if we could somehow intimidate the rest of the world into doing our bidding by demonstrating our willingness to incinerate four out of a six person family.  The remaining two will have only one goal in life.

     

    (btrw, star, didn't blow off your question in the Huck thread--missed it for a day but answered it late)


    Bizarre.Beyond.Measure.  We have become so accustomed to our hegemony-by-force, almost never cooperation.  I read a long piece by Stephen Walt about where bad ideas go, since they really don't die.  It got me thinking about how little we learn from history, or about the world beyond us, and how people who sell bad ideas do so just because it is profitable for them somehow.

    The military claims to know we are creating more and more enemies, yet in Afghanistan, we're bullish on Abrams tanks and drones.  Nightmares, nightmares.  I would try to kill us.

    Oh; don't worry about the other, Pirate.  I'll peek in later; it's a thread that doesn't hold much interest for me, really.  ;o)


    don't worry

    It's not that--your offer sounded  like the best one I've had this year....


    Military nerds are discussing the amphibian thingie and proposed manpower cuts over at Andrew Exum's:

    http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama/2011/01/how-many-forced-entry-brig...


    Thanks. AA; Ill take a look.  The manpower cuts are, of course, conditional.  So...


    wow--I've never encountered so many acronyms in one page before. Didn't understand one in ten of them...I guess that's what they made google for...

    That's what the military made the Internet for...   Tongue out


    Shifting money around, and caling it a "budget cut" seems to be the adoptive strategy of our government in PR.  Smoke and mirrors is the new reality.  Reminds me of Jack Nicholson's "You want the truth?  you can't handle the truth!" from a A Few Good Men.


    We've noticed that Republican used to be so duplicitous in their naming of bills, framing things inside-out or backwards; now it's commonplace.  Like 'health care reform' never did diddley about cutting costs of care, just diddled with insurance. 

    I loved the cuts for the figher planes: project delayed two years.  Like as not, that project was behind five years already, too, like the amphibious landing craft.  Sigh.  No talk of closing bases; hell, even 10% of the bases in the countries of our allies.  That's plain crazy.


    Actually the delay of the F35 is of some concern to me -

    From what I can tell, our previous line of fighters went into production in 1980, 31 years ago, with some improvements since, but still.... if it came out in 1980, design finished long before. (the PC came out1981; the first mass produced CD player was 1985). I worked on fully digitalized aircraft designs shortly after the F18 appearance that that are now considered rather ancient, yet the F/A-18 is still our main fighter?

    So we have an F22 design that's fiercely expensive, an F35 design that's a wee bit more straightforward and less fiercely expensive, and then there's the question of developing a new generation long-range bomber. We seem incapable of producing progressive, needed technology in the military.

    Not that I support any of our current engagements as anything more than a way to sell replacement armaments and spread bad feelings through the Mideast, but if we do face an altercation with China or Russia in 5 years, it's rather a different thing than fighting a prehistoric clan throwing rocks and placing roadside bombs.


    From 1 1/2 years ago in Wired - http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/07/report-two-year-delay-for-joint-... -

    The Obama administration’s apparently successful campaign to end production of the F-22 stealth fighter hinged on at least one very big assumption: that the newer F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (pictured) would more than make up for a curtailed Raptor fleet. “It [the F-35] is a versatile aircraft, less than half the total cost of the F-22, and can be produced in quantity with all the advantages produced by economies of scale — some 500 will be bought over the next five years, more than 2,400 over the life of the program,” Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said in a speech in Chicago on July 16.

    Problem is, Gates’ assertions might be wrong, if one recent internal Pentagon report holds true. The Joint Estimate Team “determined that the fighter won’t be able to move out of the development phase and into full production until 2016,” CQ’s Josh Rogin noted. The F-35 program office has promised full production in 2014, ramping up to around a jet per day. The delay is due to slower-than-expected progress in flight testing. The test flight goal for the current fiscal year is 317 sorties, Bill Sweetman revealed. “The total so far … is more like 30 flights, with a little more than two months to go.”

    The Air Force’s plans for the F-35 don’t allow for much wiggle room. Many F-15s, F-16s and A-10s fly under restrictions due to age-related structural problems. Gates tapped 250 of the oldest jets for retirement, this year — for the first time dropping the Air Force below its requirement for 2,250 fighters. “Every day without a solution, this situation becomes more and more urgent,” Air Guard Lt. Gen. Harry Wyatt told Congress.

    It's funny that the Wired article then goes on to say this is bad-mouthing from the F22 supporters. Seems the situation is even worse than charged. The actual situation is that Gates didn't announce a "cut"  - he's announcing that the F35 is in serious trouble, delayed yet again for 2 more years and more likely more, with the Marine portion likely to be cancelled completely as a failure, so instead we'll buy a bunch of ancient F/A-18's from Boeing to tide us through while we try to get some real adults in to run a program. That's not the same as "we looked at what fat we could trim and decided on the F35".

    It also points to the problem of having more than 2 countries work together to build a complicated device. More political optimism, like full nation-building, rather than serious, cutting-edge technology projects. Case in point: the International Space Station.


    Between the lines this also *INCREASES* costs for European allies as they pay more for maintaining their aging fleet of F16's.

    First delays reported back in 2007:

    http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/f-35-jsf-hit-by-serious-design-probl...

    Most parts of the JSF program are running about four years behind most of its initial schedule, and the estimated basic cost for one aircraft has surged about 84 percent, to $92 million in 2002 dollars from $50 million.

    The Air Force has changed its first-unit combat date to April 2016 from a target of June 2011, and the Navy date also slipped to April 2016 from April 2012.


    It was the Generals who said no to the F-22's, I believe.  Can't say about the delays of the F-35's; maybe the delays are announced that way simply because production's behind schedule, another way to shift budgetary columns.  I know there's been lots more emphasis on missle systems and drones, and missiles from aircraft carriers; perhaps those are more desirable now.  Or there's another plane we don't know about in production.  You could google those defense sites, maybe. 

    Again, I doubt Gates would delay them on some whim.  A quick google query brought up a lot of opinions; one hit was about Israel having ordered 75 of them.  Those F-22's are being shopped around the globe.

    http://www.bing.com/search?q=why+delay+the+F-35+fighter+planes+production%3F&form=QBRE&qs=n&sk=

    I have to add that I do carry within me a bit or more of 'I don't care' about them.  So many armaments and weapons and bomb delivery systems, so many wars.  We're drowning in them, and the parts that self-destruct when they go Ka-Boom!


    Well part of the issue was the price of the F-22, part was overoptimism at Lockheed-Martin delivering the F-35 without more and more delays.  So the F16 and others are our ancient workhorses, and maybe they're doing the job, but somewho I have trouble believing they don't need some reasonable updated version and soon.

    Not necessarily the full bells-and-whistles stealth everywhere that seems to be driving all these costs up. And would I suppose be better if I understood what enhancements had been done to these old lines over the years.


    This says they're grand, but seriously: war with China? 

    http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/man/uswpns/air/fighter/f18.html


    I believe I said "altercation", no?

    In 2001, if you recall, the Chinese forced down one of our border surveillance planes down onto Hainan, pulled the plane apart and sent it back in tiny boxes, crew fortunately intact.

    Again and again there are kerfluffles around S. China Sea with China expansionism, Russia invading Georgia, China military games pretending to attack Taiwan, etc. Part of our effective diplomatic response is the seriousness with which are military options are seen - unlikely full out war but the ability to cause a little mischief that the other side can't do anything about.


    That was funny, AA!  All the author did was rubber-stamp the cuts, and use the exact reasoning Gates gave.  Might have talked about closing bogus bases arond the world, or something.  Loved the nod to the annual review of troop strength, though.  A cynic might guess there won't be many decreases.  ;o)


    In the old days we'd say Gates was moonlighting, now we'd say he's a sock puppet?