FDR gave us the New Deal.
Truman gave us the Fair Deal.
LBJ hoped for a Great Society, and he got a great deal of it passed into law.
Under Speaker Newt Gingrich, the GOP offered a Contract with America, and the public took them up on the deal.

In politics as in shopping, Americans love a good deal, and everyone is hoping for one as the buzz about Obama's State of the Union Address grows. The country is in a foul mood and the pressure is on the president to deliver more widely shared prosperity.

So what kind of deal will Obama offer the country tomorrow night? And can the White House make sense of the public's conflicting signals in time to adjust course for the State of the Union? Unfortunately, the administration is sending its own conflicting signals.

On the one hand, Obama delivered a populist barn-burner in Ohio this past weekend, deliberately using some form of the word "fight" at least two dozen times to make the point he's on the side of the struggling middle class exemplified by families in the Rust Belt.

On the other hand, White House sources have said the president's speech tomorrow will include a three-year freeze on discretionary government spending (national security and entitlement programs are exempted) that could save $250 billion over ten years--in other words, three percent of the $9 trillion deficit the government is expected to generate over that period. After three years, no domestic programs other than Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security would get one red cent more than the amount in this year's budget adjusted for inflation. And to further emphasize his commitment to fiscal discipline, Obama supports conservative-led efforts to establish a bi-partisan commission that will recommend other ways to cut federal spending. Tax increases are apparently off the table.

Former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe is coming to work at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. and presumably, his first task is to make sense of the Massachusetts loss. Analysis of that debacle will inform his second task, as Plouffe and the rest of Obama's inner circle refine the president's agenda and message in a way that rekindles the magic of the 2008 campaign. And the tall order for Obama and his men is to do all this in time for the State of the Union.

But is the White House just spinning up populist rhetoric while drafting a budget that offers liberals nothing new and the middle class nothing much to sing about? That's how Republicans are pre-portraying the president's speech. Some are suggesting Obama is shifting to the Right. Others suggest he hasn't learned his lesson from Massachusetts and is running to the Left. Progressive liberals argue just the opposite, that Obama is mistakenly moving Right.

As Obama's poll numbers slip and the GOP crows, the State of the Union remains Obama's best opportunity to reset public perception and re-energize the support of liberals and independents, two groups critical to averting a widespread Massachusetts Effect in November.

Right now, Americans across the political spectrum are worried sick about how to survive, let alone prosper. They see the Big Banks that got us into this mess doing just fine with their tax dollars. So in this environment, Obama can't offer particular groups anything that smacks of excessive preference.

Instead, Obama has to offer nearly everyone a deal that is perceived as both new and fair. It doesn't have to be a great deal. Just a Good Deal.

That means nothing less than a second down payment on job creation and economic development, with better targeting and a faster mechanism for injecting the funds into the economy. With little stomach for much more federal borrowing, the president is likely to offer tax breaks for small businesses and extensions of unemployment benefits as central pieces of his economic plan. But I'm looking for something more, something bolder in the speech, that addresses the basic survival needs of the middle class.

It may be that Obama will simply run down a laundry list of old, populist ideas. That would be a missed opportunity. While White House advisers are focused on an angry electorate and dropping poll numbers, it's easy to overlook that we are still Americans and that we thirst for a challenge worthy of us. Lucky for us, or not, those challenges abound, from rewiring the country's electrical grid to rebuilding our schools, from expanding our public transportation system to a host of environmental crises.

If this president and his closest aides are really in touch with the country, they will find a way to direct the restless energy of citizens, particularly the unemployed, into meaningful, paid public service. The nation could rebuild and get back to work through programs similar to the WCA, TVA, CCC and others, but modernized and targeted for our needs and economy.

Yes, it's an old premise, based on a hard story with a happy ending. But if Obama wants to stir the hearts of independents and liberals, he could inspire and lead best by following in the footsteps of FDR. It would be bold, effective and I believe most people would think it's a Good Deal.