The possibility of a killer cyclone from the tropics delivering a gut punch to the U.S. East Coast just before Election Day, threatening tens of millions of voters with soggy devastation and a possible burst of snow, was probably not a factor in any candidate’s game plan. But it’s suddenly all too real.
Team Romney, faced with 9 point deficit with 10 minutes left to go, and staring at that first debate moment in the game, changed their teams name to the Raging Rockefellers, referring to moderate Republican Nelson Rockefeller. They figured this was better for the general election than their their previous name of the Frothing Buchanans. The mascot wasn't going over well in internal polling, nor was it playing well in the swing states.
One of the intriguing facet of the debate is why Obama didn't bring up of the 47%. The Obama team claims that was a calculated decision. They didn't want to give Romney a platform before 55 million+ Americans to do a mea culpa.
The result is that Romney has to do the mea culpa on Hannity (whose audience is already not voting for Obama), and America gets just the headline about Romney admitting being "completely wrong" in his own words.
The commercials about the 47% still continue.
Obama and Biden will still use the 47% at their rallies.
Romney down by 9 with 10 minutes left to go, not trusting his defense, went for the Hail Mary pass (just lie through your teeth and hope no one notices). It was successful. But the only wide receiver that put fear into the hearts of the defense's backfield was injured in the process. So there is now 9:41 left in the game, Romney, down by 9 and in field goal range at Obama's 14 yard line no longer has a sigificant passing game.
Does he play it safe over the next few days and settle for the field goal?
Talking with the folks around me, there is weird energy. On the eve of the debate, liberals are "in general" feeling good, but also know "anything can happen" during debate. At the same time there is a sense Obama, Warren et al will pull it out in the end.
Nate Silver has a great blog today, using the infamous football analogy, claiming that Romney is down by 7 early in the fourth quarter with possession of football on his own 20.
According to the win probability calculator at AdvancedNFLStats.com, an N.F.L. team down by field goal with 10 minutes left to play in the fourth quarter has a 34 percent probability of winning the game. A team down by a touchdown wins just 16 percent of the time.
The 47% remarks begins to take their toll. By the time the debates happen, it is likely all people will see when they see him walk to the podium is a man who lost the election by self-imploding. If he comes out aggressive in his attacks on Obama he will be seen as desperate. If he is passive, he will be seen as someone who has accepted his defeat.
The state Democratic Party identified the staffers as Brad Garrett, who works for the Massachusetts Republican Party, and Jack Richard, a constituent services lawyer in Brown’s US Senate office.
About the only bright spot recently that the Romney team could point to was their closing of gap on the national tracking poll. But now Obama has regained a 2 point lead. This is bad news for Romney because it indicates that Obama's lead in the swing states may be cementing.
The rise in Democratic enthusiasm among swing-state voters is notable from the perspective that the party's supporters are more energized after that party's convention than before it, and that Democratic enthusiasm for voting now exceeds that of Republicans.
This may also in part explain Obama's leads now in those swing states.
Americans have a more negative than positive immediate reaction to Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's comments, secretly caught on video, about the 47% of Americans whom he said are Obama supporters and dependent on the government. Thirty-six percent of voters say Romney's comments make them less likely to vote for him, while 20% say the remarks make them more likely to vote for him, and 43% say the comments won't make a difference.
As the two the presidential candidates prepare for the first debate, Romney finds himself between a rock and a hard place. Obama is dealing with the same rock, but unlike Romney he lacks a similar hard place.
The rock is the apparently small number of actual undecided voters, maybe as little as 2%. This means to make significant gains in the poll, one has to go after the swing voters. Romney is not going to pass Obama in places like Florida and Ohio just by grabbing all of the undecideds (many who could very well not vote at all). He has to convince those who have tentatively leaned toward Obama at the moment to change their mind and swing over to him.
Most Americans are fascinated with the wealthy and the uberwealthy. At some level the fascination is with envy - hence the obsession with some with the lotteries. At some level it is a fascination that one has for any culture one does not have access to - be it the mafia or a tribe in Papua New Guinea.
