The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

Stop me before I enjoy more

This just in..The perfect top marginal  rate is 70%.

 Brad Delong says that  Paul Krugman says that Mark Thoma says that Emmanuel Saez and Nobel laureate Peter Diamond say  that's the sweet spot where the Government achieves the maximum overall good 

Good being defined as the Govt causing as little unhappiness as possible while collecting as much  cash as possible. Or balancing the fiscal requirements of the deficit with  the moral need to do that as painlessly as possible.

Making an omelet without breaking eggs.

How do you spell C R O O K? It's P A U L S..................

Keith Olbermann, natch, covered this with his well chosen guest Jeff Madrick. But it wasn't coverred in either  the  Times or FT and it should be read. 

What happened? The Secretary of Treasury flouted the laws against insider trading by telling a room full of investors that the Government intended to let  Fannie and Freddie go into bankruptcy.  

Psst: wanna buy a Grand Bargain?

On NPR tonight, commentators were saying the $40 billion cut back in the Department of Defense's 2013 budget would require the planning to start soon. Wrong. It will  require immediate actions. Like cancelling contracts next month.

To save $40 billion in 2013 the DOD has got to not buy things. Those not-bought things will be things that were supposed to have been built either under contracts already signed or ones in the late stages of procurement

Thank you, Patti Murray

And maybe the whole Supercommittee was a clever TeamObama plan.

That's contrary to Occam's razor but hey who says Occam's so great?

The outcome of the whole affair is that Obama holds a slightly better hand today because the Republicans can't abide the idea of a $400Bn DOD cut. 

Not because of patriotism, forget that. But because DOD cuts means a loss of jobs. And you can believe there'll be jobs in every  key district. Because as presumably nearly every one here  knows, that's how Govt procurement works.

Three important early electoral wins

Ohio repealed the anti union law by a margin of more than 20 points

Mississippi defeated the "personhood" law which would have banned abortions

Maine defeated the law attempting to prevent same day registration

How many economists can dance on the head of a......

 

Brad Delong leads today with a piece in which he says that Felix Salmon says, the David Leonhardt says Timothy Geithner says  that ......you get the idea.Here's an excerpt

DELONG STARTS HERE

Felix Salmon writes:

Oh well who needs Opera on NPR?

 Eric Alterman the Nov 14th Nation

 

" Lisa Simeone was..the host of Soundprint, ....produced  independently ...and World of Opera,produced by SDAV, a classical-music ...station-both of which aired nationally  on NPR stations. Simeone is not a network employee but when NPR....discovered ..Simeone ...was part of the steering comittee for a protest group similar to Occupy ,,,,,,Simeone [was] fired.  ....World of Opera-who...refused to fire her got booted off NPR's schedule." .............................Mara Liaason is a paid pundit for Fox's news channel

A realistic trade policy: none

I spent some time tonight being educated in the cruel changes being planned in New York's care for the developmentally disabled.

While thinking of two apparently unrelated things: Greece and 1992 Democratic primaries.

Trade policy was an issue in 92. In particular, NAFTA ... Paul Tsongas, I think—but whoever said it was voicing the consensus—said essentially that whatever we might have wished  the rest of the world is forming trade blocs, and if we don't join Nafta, we'll be left out.

That was then. 2011 marks the unforming of one those trade blocs as 'the rest of the world' is learning that Greece doesn't belong in the Eurozone. And is there any reason to believe that it's the only country of which that's true?

They were for it before they were against it

When it suited their purposes  the Koch Bros  touted the benefits of social security. 

As described in the Oct 17th Nation , in 1973 Charles Koch wanted to hire Friedrich Hayek (Road to Serfdom).  He ,sensibly, afraid of giving up the benefits of Austria's health and retirement programs, turned Koch down. Koch's operatives responded  by trying to convince Hayek of the virtues of  social security  and Medicare.

Duncan Black to Brad Delong to you

Brad Delong tries to answer Black's question of why Obama has been maundering on about the long run deficit when that is not only not the problem but when pretending it is the problem makes it less likely that we'll fix the problem.

 

Delong's best effort was to try and guess at what team Obama thought and it looked like this.

Coulda,shoulda , woulda

 

Ezra Klein thinks Obama could have handled the financial crisis better.

He says so in many thousands of words

If Romer, Summers et al had read their R& R (Reinhart and Rogoff),starved all other initiatives and rifle shot at a go-for- broke stimulus maybe unemployment would be 7% today instead of 9% (my words , not Klein's or RR's)

And pigs could fly.

Red Planet to the rescue

of my understandably unread blog on marginal tax rates. (Yawn)

1952: tax table  Adjusted for Inflation

 

Marginal Tax Rate: 

22.2% up to $16.9K

24.6% up to $33.9K

Our marginal tax rate is a moral hazard.

The marginal tax rate was

91% under Ike starting at $400,000

70% from  Nixon to Carter, at $200,000

28% under Reagan at  $300,000.

40% under Clinton at $288,000. Which became 35%, under the famous Bush  tax cuts.

(remind me why we can't afford social security!)

If you were an AIG trader collecting $6 million in 2004 after taking a risk which might -and did- bankrupt your employer you'd have kept $3,900,000 to comfort you if your social security was inadequate. 

How Barack failed the Suskind test

Confidence Men: Wall Street, Washington, and the Education of a President pretty much boils down to Suskind's view that Obama's incompetent management blighted his first two years in particular by causing him to blow two key decisions: he didn't put Citicorp into Chapter 11 (or even Chrysler)  and in creating the Affordable Health Care Act (AHCA) he opted for coverage instead of cost reduction.

Punishing Citicorp ( or somebody)

And the score was....Geithner 1, Volker 0.

Suskind subscribes to the moral hazard school: when something's gone wrong, someone should suffer. Perhaps even  those responsible. Somehow I'm reminded of Shirley Jackson's The Lottery, but never mind.

Suskind's book

... is reviewed by Brad Delong . The link is below in the first comment(don't ask!)

It (the review) is worth reading. Whether you agree or disagree with Brad, it sort of provides a check list of the issues you have to consider in trying to come to a rational position about Obama's record on the economy.

As to the book itself, well whether or not you disagree with Suskind, it's impressive in all the stuff it covers. But not in its manipulative argument by adjective or anecdote. From Brad's review:

You're not going to have Obama to kick around any more

after Nov 2012.

On Countdown last night Nate Silver explained that this week's special congressional elections were even worse than they had seemed on the surface. We knew that the Republican carried Anthony Weiner's Brooklyn  seat and won in the open  Nevada seat.

Brooklyn was  discounted as Netanyahu's revenge: the district's large Jewish electorate punishing Obama for being insufficiently pro Israel.  No reason to expect that to change between now and Nov 2012 when Ed Koch will presumably endorse Rick Perry or whomever the Tea Party anoints.

 

Let the uninsured die on the door step of the ER

Here's the report that's going viral today.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-ron-paul-gop-debate-20110913,0,3161863.story?track=rss

I deeply disagree with those who applauded the idea of letting the uninsured die.

But of course that's what we do already,  but we can hide it from ourselves by not looking very hard.

 

And it's why I back Obamacare.

 

Juan Cole taking a victory lap

Here's Juan Cole's summary of why he thought in March we/Obama were right to support the Libyan rebels.

And still does.

http://www.juancole.com/

Mr. Sachs, Mr Keynes. Oh, you've met already

The New Yorker

I fondly remember a cartoon a decade ago. A blackboard full of equations.  Two elderly physicists. One, pointing at a spot on the board., which says “then a miracle occurs”.

 

The Financial Times

 Aug 18 2011

Jeffrey Sachs

 …….. No need to blame the rating agencies: governments.. have been unable to cope with the realities of global capital markets and competition from Asia…

Keep it quiet, a Democratic victory

Tuesday. In Wisconsin . By the two Dems against whom the Reps had organized a Recall. Well publicized by NPR in a sucky piece a week before the election introducing us to Patriotic Wisconsin Housewife, out there fighting the Good Fight and organizing one of the Recalls. Yawn.

Not saying NPR didn't have the right. Just pointing out that anyway the Dems got 54% and 58% of the vote.Which sounds like an improvement over the General judging by the absence of Republican claims of an improved share.

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