The Swedish author Henning Mankel who created the "Kurt Wallander" series has written a novel about Africa, where he lived for twenty years. In "The Eye of the Leopard", a young Swede travels to Zambia on a two week trip and stays eighteen years. It is the late 60's, post independence, and the white farmers are carrying on their work in a dangerous and uneasy balance with the Africans. The country is a pressurized tank of steam ready to blow. The Swede takes a "temporary" job as the foreman of a farm but has never managed workers. 

"How should I treat them?", he asks.

"Firmly", the owner says. "The Africans are always looking for your weak point, those moments when you can be talked into something. Give them nothing; find something to complain about the first time they wash your clothes. Even if there's nothing; then they'll know that you make demands...."

It is not hard to imagine bwana Gingrich in the role of the privileged farm owner. Following his quick rise in the polls Gingrich's messages quickly became focused on the degrading "southern strategy" of using coded messages for blacks and minorities to scapegoat them for the nation's ills. The strategy apparently appeals to a large part of the Republican base. "Poor people in the projects don't know about work", "they get their money from drugs", they'd make good janitors if you got them young enough. And of course, their leader, Barack Obama, is the best "food stamp President" we've ever had.

Newt Gingrich is now the front runner in a discordant Republican primary process as beautiful as angry alligators mating in a swamp or birds fighting over a smeared hamburger wrapper from a fast food dumpster. One might think that troubled times at home and abroad would bring forth American citizens from great traditions of military service, public service, economics, science or notable business careers. Instead Republicans have a field of flawed candidates. If these candidates somehow managed to slip into a conference of distinguished Americans they would be seated at a table by themselves in the corner of the banquet hall fighting over rolls and butter like a flock or voracious grackles. What is the cause of such low brow Republican candidates and a selection process which seems to go against our better nature? Why an ugly bird like Gingrich? 

For the past decade Newt Gingrich has been called a "Thought Leader"—a glib PR term coined in the '90's and one which in my opinion should be stood up against a fence and shot along with gag-response phrases like "nuanced argument", "heavy hitter" and "core competency". Since his Speakership, Gingrich has amassed a fortune speaking and writing his thoughts on issues as diverse as home ownership, health care, abortion, cap and trade, and education—to name a few. It seems that Gingrich's thoughts matter. Stanley Elkin in his essay, "Some Overrated Masterpieces", stated that, "... the odd thing about words is the cockeyed weight they're permitted to bear." In Gingrich's case—even more so. He's quotable and printable.

What Gingrich's thoughts are worth in a Presidential run we are about to find out. His speaking style is facile. He is the invented character—used car salesman with a PHD. His followers regard him as very, very smart. His numerous segues from arcane references, to the appearance of moderation and then to hell-fire-demonizing of the Left occur at lightning speed. A reference to the Transcontinental Railroad will send his followers rummaging around the labyrinths of their minds to find an association and finding none they conclude that the man must be brilliant.

The Democratic victories in yesterday's elections coupled with the recent birth of the Occupy movement seem to be evidence of a different political climate than we had even two or three months ago. It appears that we are out of the doldrums, a bit of a wind in the mainsail. I am tempted to meld all the different events into a pattern, disregarding the nature of the separate events. I want to say things like, "changed perceptions got people up off the couch," "now Democrats have a new reality," as if there were clear relationships between cause and effect. But it's not that easy. If my car stopped on the freeway because it "ran out of gas", contingent causes might be that my gas gage was broken and I was too cheap to repair it. But aside from the complexities of cause and effect and the invention of new realities, why do Democrats seem to have things going their way? 

I spent the last two days away from home on a job site in Tulsa. One of my clients was considering switching to a competitor. I have a "resource recovery" company---or, put another way, we scrounge the back lots of industrial plants looking for commodities which can be recycled and re-used. Our employees are well trained and long term and they do well on earnings. They drive our trucks and equipment to remote locations. and my insurance company requires drug testing. Because we control costs and like to make a bit of a profit there is a limit on how much we'll spend for a motel. When I'm on the road, which I don't enjoy, I stay where my workers stay.

Heartbreak Motel sits on the intersection of two truck routes. The four corners are a stark melding of the food chain and the employment ladder. On one corner is a convenience store and cash-only gas station---the bottom rung of life in a gritty America.  Outside, behind the store, four homeless people stand around a compressor smoking and making ready for the night with pieces of card board to sleep on. A police car idles two hundred feet away, pointed in their direction. I say to hell with it and walk over to the store. A small bottle of milk and some cookies might come in handy if I wake up at the motel in the middle of the night and have the creeps. As I try to go into the store a guy forces me off the sidewalk. I ignore him. Coming back out a woman blocks my path, "Are you stayin' over there for the night?"

According to yesterday's GDP numbers the engine of American Consumption is back on the tracks and rolling along at a surprising clip. The odd thing is that Consumer Confidence still remains at a near historic low. Typically an increase in consumption is preceded by a rise in confidence. So why is the spending train rolling along while confidence is like a caboose sidetracked in the train yard?

A Sept. 15th report by Ross DeVol at the Milkin Institute not only predicted good GDP and consumption numbers for the 3rd Quarter but explained the root cause of the precipitous drop in consumer confidence over the Summer and its disconnect from actual consumer behavior which kept chugging along underneath.

If you're thinking that the decline in confidence had some connection to our national politics you'd be right. DeVol correlates the decline in confidence to a decline in the approval ratings of -- the Congress!

The fire bloggers are already on "Obama's Plan" like flies on Schweddy Balls ice cream. There's so much chatter and misinformation about this plan that I hesitate to write this post and add to the problem. But certain facts seem to be clear and I'm advising an underwater guy in Vermont, so here's a quick take.

HARP is an Obama Administration plan, adopted and implemented by FHFA in 2009. It has produced about 900,000 re-finances, far less than projected. The Administration's potential influence over the FHFA is by appointment of the Director, with approval by Congress. Through a series of half steps, Ed DeMarco, appointed originally by Bush has risen to the top and appears irreplaceable. DeMarco would rival Peterson and Norquist as having the most power in Washington outside any given elected official.

The FHFA website gives the specifics of the revised rules regarding HARP. By the way, you can look up your loan there to determine if it is in fact guaranteed by one of the GSEs and if it was purchased prior to 2009 - two of the entrance requirements in qualifying for HARP - and a source of the smell sensed by fire bloggers. The program excludes a lot or worthy would-be refinancers. One of the headlines of this refi makeover is that there is now no limit on "how far underwater" one can be to still participate. Previously, the Loan-To-Value (LTV) had already been raised to 125% - but there were only 72,000 refinanced loans with  LTVs over 105%.  (A property appraised at $100K with a $105K loan has an LTV of 105%)

OWS is getting traction in the aftermath of Steve Jobs' death and I began to ponder a connection between the two events. Was the end of the Steve Jobs/Apple "story", meaning its mystique, also the lifting of a veil of complacency and gullibility about what's going on in plain sight around us? What if the Apple story needed to be debunked, stood on its head in the same way that much of our politics and economic struggles need to be?

When I purchased country property in Texas a few years back I didn't realize one of its assets was the burn pile. A neighbor helped me clear some dead tree limbs and I asked him to take it all to the dump. He had a good laugh and said, "I was going to haul it over to your burn pile" I asked him where that was. "Over behind the old barn, been there for years."

We rode four wheelers over to the other end of the pasture. And there it was--kind of a sacred site--a large mound of black rubble, with bits of twisted metal poking out to catch glints of sunlight. "That burn pile has been there for as long as I can remember". My neighbor said. "Even longer than that bodark wood post them surveyors found on the corner of your property. Dates back to the 1800's".

Rick Perry has just unveiled his "drill baby drill" plan, a plan to bring dirty oil to ourselves and perhaps have enough left over to sell to the the rest of the world. Perry wants to "Make what we make" , "Buy what we make" and "Sell what we make" to the rest of the world. Perhaps instead of "drill baby drill" Perry's plan could be described as the "Make, Make, Make" plan. or "Make, Buy and Sell" plan. In any event Perry's makeover has him positioned aside a simplistic plan well suited to his experience running an energy state and his inexperience in just about everything else. And Perry's plan is positioned just opposite Cain's 999 plan. Of course, neither of their plans is ever going to be implemented. The plans are a ruse for getting one or the other of these candidates through the primaries.

Charlie Rose will moderate the GOP debate to be held on the Dartmouth college campus in Hanover, New Hampshire on Oct 11. Also on the panel will be Julianna Goldman, W.H. correspondent for Bloomberg Television and Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post.

This debate may be a pivotal experience for the Republican contenders because it will focus on the economy and Charlie Rose and the panel will have at their disposal a Bloomberg Terminal. For those who don't know, this terminal is a coveted, high dollar mother lode of financial information. I don't know if the screens will be viewable by the television audience, but the presence of actual facts may sober up some of the participants.

Sources tell me that Charlie Rose has agreed to moderate the upcoming Republican New Hampshire debate on the condition that the decorum of both candidates and audience can be upgraded to New England standards. While New England Republicans are fine with such language as "laying the wood to Obama" and "taking a baseball bat" to a woman legislator in New Jersey they flinch at things like booing the troops and clapping at executions, as unfortunately occurred in the Simi Valley and Orlando debates. In sympathy with the goal of higher level discourse, the Manchester Union Leader is said to be withholding a story that Romney muttered a phrase that sounded like "Frigging Canucks" when he was detained at the Canadian border for strapping a large dog to the top of his family car.

In order to raise the debate bar and minimize knee-jerk reactions, Charlie Rose has published his list of questions ahead of time. But to make sure the candidates actually prepare for the debate, questions will be assigned only at the last minute to candidates of Matthew Dowd's choosing. The questions have been geared to an audience of conservative, taciturn and frugal New Englanders and vacationing hedge fund managers.