538: After Super Tuesday, Joe Biden Is A Clear Favorite To Win The Nomination

By artappraiser on Fri, 03/06/2020 - 11:56am |

Nate Silver is basically calling it, and Krugman is certifying?

The headline actually understates the case. Pretty clear that whoever has a plurality of delegates will be the nom, and the 538 model gives Sanders only a 6% chance. 1/ https://t.co/vAgN67JkNX
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) March 6, 2020

URL:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/after-super-tuesday-joe-biden-is-a-clear-favorite-to-win-the-nomination/

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Comments

For Warren fans, over at The New Yorker (which has always branded itself as going after the intellectually elite), there's two Warren stories at the top of the page. This one's their current centered headline

Elizabeth Warren’s American Leadership

Elizabeth Warren’s fight for the nomination helped shore up the Democratic Party’s right flank; it also all but guaranteed that there will be more Democratic candidates like her to come.

By Benjamin Wallace-Wells, March 6

and this one is to the left of it:

Elizabeth Warren’s Policy Agenda Will Live On

By John Cassidy, March 6

Elizabeth Warren didn’t create the recent resurgence in progressive thinking, but she has arguably been its key synthesizer and champion.

by artappraiser on Sat, 03/07/2020 - 4:13am

Extended cat fight on Twitter, Warren staffers vs. Buttigieg supporters, letting the hate all out just because they can. Interesting for building your cynicism chops for their "profession". In the end, underneath it all, Bernie bro types?

Wow this thread on Pete Buttigieg from a now-former Warren campaign staffer https://t.co/HwPW8tXQge
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) March 7, 2020

More thoughts on Pete Buttigieg from former Team Warren: https://t.co/FKmNAgUiCj
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) March 7, 2020

And a little more: https://t.co/wMHFKcKpQ9
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) March 7, 2020

by artappraiser on Sat, 03/07/2020 - 12:17pm

Nate Cohn:

One fun thing to examine is the vote of the trapped GOP voters who remain registered as Democrats. In '16, they usually voted for Sanders or uncommitted, powering his wins in OK/WV.
This time, turnout is way down in those places and there's a more modest Gabbard/uncommitted vote pic.twitter.com/m2QfMi2MUJ
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 7, 2020

I've screen-shotted Coal County, OK because it led my piece on this phenomenon four years ago. Turnout is 40% lower in '16; Sanders fell from 63 to 18% https://t.co/Y6fK6HsIMy
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 7, 2020

by artappraiser on Sat, 03/07/2020 - 4:52pm

hah, in case the Hunter Biden shit doesn't work out, desperately trying out the blackface thing, seeing if they can make it fly:

Everybody just needs to go home for the weekend pic.twitter.com/ZDQLq4qRGY
— Steven Lemongello (@SteveLemongello) March 7, 2020

by artappraiser on Sat, 03/07/2020 - 5:25pm

Oh god, it's over, Biden at some strange event, introducing a man, in blackface.

by ocean-kat on Sat, 03/07/2020 - 5:42pm

Shit, I joked about this before, The Dementia Presidential Campaign, but I hope not. The quote at the start of the tweet gave me the creeps because I've just been there, done that, gone through exactly that recently in real life (and it wasn't pretty, can tear a family apart. there's no real tests, just the gerontologist's opinion, and guess what, they really are often hard of hearing in place with lots of ambient noise, you can't tell one from the other. If they are intelligent people, they also often reserve a instinctual capacity to hide from others what they know is happening). If this is really how the campaign goes, I am not going to want to pay attention, is too painful. If it's true, pray they both go away to retirement

“I’m worried, Dad really seemed lost at dinner.” “No, no, that’s just because the ambient noise makes it hard for him to hear. One-on-one he’s as sharp as you or me.” “I don’t know, sis, I don’t think you are facing facts.” “Oh, so now this is about me?!”https://t.co/djr4cKBCwD
— John F. Harris (@harrispolitico) March 7, 2020

by artappraiser on Sat, 03/07/2020 - 5:38pm

I don't get it. Why the fuck did Liz drop out. She just saw all the "anyone but Bernie" effect, and that was down to 2 people including her. Yeah, Hillary was supposed to drop out in early June, not early March. She could have just told them to drive, she'd be in the back seat just to make sure they got home. I'm gobsmacked. Is *she* not very smart? And in the year of the plague, a candidate gets the virus?

by PeraclesPlease on Sat, 03/07/2020 - 9:23pm

FWIW the real Liz just appeared on SNL opening skit right now, with the fake LIz standing next to her. Context was parody of Laura Ingraham's show. She was smiling and obviously enjoying herself but was not very funny.

by artappraiser on Sat, 03/07/2020 - 11:30pm

the Bernie Bros are still at their unaltered shtick:

How is Bernie Sanders supposed to get enough normie/middle america votes if you go this rallies and they say things like this? https://t.co/fpycXSdPN3
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

by artappraiser on Sat, 03/07/2020 - 11:36pm

Long twitter rant on the woke thing inspired by the above, interesting nuance, I enjoyed so I am sharing:

"A new study published in the Journal of Language and Social Psychology discovered that the use of complex jargon can often turn people off from learning topics like science and politics, even when specialized words are defined."https://t.co/44QdeQ6R4Z
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

I think the thing is Bernie Sanders himself wouldn't say anything like this but that his campaign is so disorganized they don't even do a read through of speakers' prepared remarks after running the thing for a year... https://t.co/KB5s5sr4x2
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

I think the average person looks at that statement and says oh if I'm not a communist, I'm a racist?

MLK once said this about the phrase "Black Power" (I'm paraphrasing): It's like a joke, if you have to explain it, it's not a good joke.https://t.co/00MRyLLwRq
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

This is issue, when it was Sanders, Biden, and the whole gang, the whole gang was much more detached and academic than Sanders and Biden. So Sanders and Biden outlasted them. When its Sanders vs Biden, one person's campaign has way lower barrier to entry. https://t.co/f0gp3c0QP6
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

People on the intellectual/activist left generally think it's belittling voters to say you can't use jargon with them, when actually it's respecting them. You wouldn't go to someone who doesn't speak your language and start lecturing them in it, would you?
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

Make Bernie Sanders Normal Again (seriously, he might get more votes. Joe Biden isn't going to do anything like this and he's cleaning up) https://t.co/a7KggwMdah
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

It's a presidential campaign, the candidate gives a speech, people think it's great or not great, why is a panel being thrown up there like its a graduate seminar to marginalize the candidate at their own event with some weird woke justifications
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

This whole thing is such a mess...for one if you are doing cultural competency it's very low barrier to entry, you talk about civil rights, not the more niche construction called racial justice, you highlight your own experience (CORE organizer in Chicago), not others
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

Then you focus on issues and themes that are localized to the people that live there, and should probably try to get an audience that isn't 90% white if your goal is to talk to nonwhite people, which has been the case in all the Sanders MI events so far from what I'm hearing
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

Otherwise this whole thing is just talking to highly educated white people about white guilt stuff which at that point the Sanders campaign is the Warren campaign and look what happened to the Warren campaign. Oh and meanwhile Sanders's chance of victory rests in rural MI
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

This was the map that handed Sanders his victory in 2016, but Joe Biden is probably much stronger in the green areas and probably as strong in the blue areas as Clinton was, meaning that Sanders will probably keep losing rural voters pic.twitter.com/kwQkzi56bV
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

He doesn't seem to have any advisors or staff who actually hold culturally moderate politics and understands that these voters are culturally moderate voters, they aren't Oberlin grads https://t.co/BV82NzBe3p
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

At the end of the day this racial reductivism the left engages in is insulting. They seem to think everyone of a skin shade thinks alike so they get people who are 19-30 years old and highly educated to advise them, thinking they can reach people who are 50-75 years old
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

Who have entirely different social networks, different ways of viewing the world, a different understanding of what they want out of politics. Joe Biden hasn't apologized for his crime bill because most black boomers largely wanted the crime bill. Yet Sanders hit him on that
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

Through that op-ed in SC, citing, of all places, Vox, I'm sure lots of grandmothers in South Carolina read vox dot com and are siphoning their political opinions through 20-somethings who live in brooklyn
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

I'm utterly embarrassed by the state of the populist movement in america, on the left and the right
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

They're all practicing populism without the population, which may as well be elitism
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) March 8, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/08/2020 - 12:06am

Joe Biden hasn't apologized for his crime bill because most black boomers largely wanted the crime bill. Yet Sanders hit him on that

That and "superpredator" was how they tried to weaken Hillary's black support last time. Running out of tricks.

by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 03/08/2020 - 12:32am

Sanders is doing a town hall on Fox News.

He did not go to Selma.

He pulled out of Mississippi

Surrogates suggest that black voters in South Carolina are "low information voters".

I wonder why older black voters are not supporting Sanders in large numbers.

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 03/08/2020 - 11:48am

for the "no shit, Sherlock" file: The doubt of a ‘Bernie Bro’: A hard-charging Sanders supporter questions whether his tactics help or hurt

by Robert Samuels @ WashingtonPost.com, March 7

Zach McDowell once relished the Twitter battle over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), but now he worries his behavior is hurting the candidate. Sanders has disavowed the most abusive voices while defending the majority of his backers.

As per this photo caption, out talking to real people he went: DOH, being "mean mad" (as Ma Joad put it) doesn't win votes, it's not like video games, go figure: Zach McDowell canvasses a residential street in Charleston, S.C., on Feb. 27. McDowell, a supporter of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), used to defend the candidate in impulsive tweets, but now he was questioning his rules of online engagement.

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/08/2020 - 3:31am

“The party needed an intervention and the voters staged it” Why James Carville thinks the Democratic Party just saved itself.

By Sean Illing @ Vox.com, March 6

[....] I reached out again to Carville to see if he thinks the Democrats are “getting their shit together” now or if he’s still “scared to death” about their chances in November. We also discussed what he considers the biggest lesson of Super Tuesday.

A lightly edited transcript of our conversation follows [....]

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/08/2020 - 4:32am

Paid for by Mike Bloomberg: #DUMPTRUMP #GOJOE ad:

Mike Bloomberg does a good job of sticking it to Donald tRump in this short video. Take a look and see if you agree!#DumptRump #VoteBlue2020 pic.twitter.com/onbBeQDlzZ
— McSpocky #VoteBlue2020 (@mcspocky) March 8, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/08/2020 - 4:35am

Proof: not a Russian nor a Trumpie but a genuine Bernie bro feeding the "Biden dementia" attack op:

Lordy https://t.co/8NPXOExg63
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) March 9, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/08/2020 - 11:18pm

⁦@JoeBiden⁩ campaign blasts Facebook for allowing a manipulated video of Biden - that was shared by Trump and officials - to circulate this weekend. Scathing rebuke

Story on the way pic.twitter.com/eGFWoGJ3QS
— CeciliaKang (@ceciliakang) March 9, 2020

She's with NYTimes, that's where story will be.

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/08/2020 - 11:21pm

Twitter leads the way again:

After being shared by Donald Trump, the video became the first media flagged by Twitter's new policy. https://t.co/nwHBISUsz4
— hyperallergic (@hyperallergic) March 9, 2020

by artappraiser on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 6:11pm

The primary is over https://t.co/IEA5Vdkcxn
— Connor O'Brien (@cojobrien) March 9, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/08/2020 - 11:53pm

Jennifer Rubin on Sanders:

Perhaps he and his snarling online supporters should confront an unpleasant truth: Sanders’s problem is not the establishment or corporate Democrats or billionaires. It is the voters. https://t.co/KGlGgmQXAA
— Jennifer Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) March 9, 2020

by artappraiser on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 10:46am

Sully: Dem Party rediscovers its purpose
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/andrew-sullivan-democrats-are-no...

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 12:49pm

excellent, espec. this part:

In fact, presented with a choice between an intersectional revolution against “white supremacy” or a doddering but familiar face promising mild reform, African-American Democratic voters emphatically chose the latter. Joe Biden — that mass-incarcerating friend of actual white supremacists in the Senate — won 63 percent of the black vote in Virginia, 72 percent in Alabama, and 60 percent in Texas. In fact, Biden won the African-American vote in every single contest, if not by the same staggering margins.

The gulf between what media elites say about African-Americans and what actual black normies believe even began to sink in with the wokerati. Here’s a nearly poignant epiphany from Ibram X. Kendi, the radical black social constructionist I wrote about recently:

I’m reflecting on how seemingly divided Black politicians are from Black intellectuals and activists. It seems as if more Black politicians have endorsed Biden or Bloomberg. It seems as if most Black intellectuals and activists have endorsed Sanders or Warren.

Nearly there. But what Kendi can’t yet quite grasp is that the reason black politicians aren’t woke is that their voters aren’t either. Black America is not a breeding ground for postmodern theories of intersecting oppressions. Outside the Bernie youth cohort, it’s socially conservative, politically savvy, and more determined to beat Trump than to embrace ideological purism.

Also second time today I've read the accusation that part of Liz Warren's problem was that she went too left on culture war issues

It's like everyone was trying to compete to take some of Bernie's bros away from Bernie because they like needed the passion or something? Wasn't going to happen and trying to do that ruined their chances with many normies. At the same time, Liz probably also got a wrong bead on that from having a lot of young elite educated staffers. And then there's the popularity of AOC always in the news, but she's turning out to be very special and her campadres aren't doing so well. AOC has a knack of re-directing from inflammatory culture wars, but her colleages not so much.

by artappraiser on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 3:59pm

Hilarious

In fact, presented with a choice between an intersectional revolution against “white supremacy” or a doddering but familiar face promising mild reform, African-American Democratic voters emphatically chose the latter.

Black voters who side with Biden are fighting white supremacy. What do people think Trump represents? Polling indicates the biggest motivator of the black vote is making Trump a one-term President. The reason that Trump is rejected by black voters is his racism.

8 in 10 black voters say Trump is a racist

Washington (CNN)More than eight in 10 African Americans believe President Donald Trump is racist and that he has contributed to making racism a bigger problem in the United States, according to a new Washington Post-Ipsos poll.

The survey, released Friday, also finds that nine in 10 black Americans say they disapprove of Trump's job performance.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/17/politics/black-voters-trump-poll/index.html

The votes are definitely about white supremacy.

Unemployment is down. Why aren't black greeting Trump with open arms?

by rmrd0000 on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 4:37pm

You keep repeating "Trump is a racist", as if that's the slamdunk all-important factoid beyond all. But I imagine Trump *implementing* policies that hurt blacks matter much more. And again, it doesn't really matter whether Trump is racist or just plays one on TV -he's destructive to black and Hispanic and Muslim lives.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 5:28pm

You keep repeating "Trump is a racist"

Understate things much?

Hey that reminds me whatever happened to the thing where we were instructed that "blacks" would never vote for Biden, he would have racism problems for voting for the crime bill and for working against busing children for integration of schools.

And what about Pierre Trudeau? Did he get booted out of office?

by artappraiser on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 5:47pm

When it came down to a choice between Biden and Trump, Biden wins with blacks. News articles indicate that black voters accept Biden as the best choice. Buttigieg had his policing problem and was a new face. Sanders never connected with the majority of black voters. He may do better in Tuesday's primaries.

On pragmatism:

But the pragmatism of black voters, experts say, should not be confused with ignorance or some form of political captivity.

"That's not unlike our day-to-day life," said Candis Smith, an associate professor of political science and African American studies at Penn State. "How black folks navigate the world, how we deal with every major feature of our lives must involve some sort of calculation about what white people are going to do — is this safe to do around them? What will the consequences be? How must I smile to ease any fear you may have of me? Which injustice will I protest? That is part of black life in America. Why would voting be any different?"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/black-voters-know-what-they-want-tuesday-it-was-joe-n1151001

Regarding Trudeau. if I remember correctly, he lost seats. Trudeau did not win the popular vote. His loss of the popular vote was historic.

https://www.thepostmillennial.com/trudeau-liberals-wins-despite-historic-loss-of-popular-vote/

You will never understand. I don't care. We will see how Biden and Sanders fare tomorrow and move on from there.

by rmrd0000 on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 8:09pm

Black pragmatism

Since Biden’s reversal was powered by support from the overwhelming majority of black voters in a state with a very black Democratic electorate, pundits immediately began to frame these Southern black voters as moderates who chose Biden for his relatively cautious stances on health care and taxes in comparison to Sanders’ and Warren’s bolder platforms. Less generous Bernie supporters dismissed black voters as low information voters casting ballots against their interests. On Monday night, filmmaker and avid Sanders surrogate Michael Moore outright dismissed South Carolina Democrats as red-state voters who aren’t representative of the American electorate.

But perhaps they were more representative than the Sanders campaign realized. In retrospect, South Carolina was the miner’s canary of this primary race. As such, they signaled something much more than a desire for moderation.

It was reported that Democratic Party leaders were working behind the scenesto find an alternative to Sanders, a democratic socialist who has long labeled himself an independent. But black voters like the ones who pushed Biden to big victories in South Carolina, and then in Virginia, Alabama and North Carolina, aren’t The Establishment, and it would be a mistake to characterize them as moderate, or even, as certain pundits maintain, somewhat conservative. Rather than placing these votes along a straight continuum between the left and the right, it would be better to think about black voters in their own particular contexts.

For most of these voters, the main concern isn’t the radicalism of their chosen primary candidate but the recklessness of the current president. Removing Trump is their primary — and in some cases only — concern. Biden, who stood firmly behind President Barack Obama for two terms, is less a compelling candidate than a reset button.

Biden is a known quantity and someone who was loyal to their favorite president — and he evidently scares Trump. Black voters noticed that Trump’s scheme to try and smear Biden was so blatantly problematic that it got him impeached by Congress.

And Black voters over 45 have lived long enough to see the history made by Obama, but also have an even longer memory of the disappointment and shortcomings of candidates who failed. They’ve surveyed the polarized political landscape and bitterly divided Congress, and they doubt that a Sanders’-style political revolution is even a remote possibility in an age when just voting to fund the government is regularly up for debate. Many of them admired the grit and talent of Warren but had no faith that white men in any significant numbers would support a woman for president, even if she was the best choice.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-has-black-voters-support-over-sanders-it-s-not-ncna1150576?icid=related

by rmrd0000 on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 8:27pm

Along similar lines

Now that the Democratic primary race has narrowed to two older white male candidates, political analysts have begun to focus on the allegiances of African American voters, who are the core of the Democratic Party base. Some have suggested that African American support of Joe Biden rests less on their trust in him, than on their distrust of white voters’ willingness to vote for a woman, a person of color or a progressive.

This reasoning suggests that African American voters make pragmatic political choices based on an understanding of the persistence of anti-black racism in our society, sometimes settling for a white candidate who they think will be least objectionable to white voters while causing African Americans the least harm.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/03/09/history-slavery-remains-with-us-today/

by rmrd0000 on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 10:50pm

Jesus, "blacks sometimes vote who they think can win vs who they like best - like everyone else does". Better?

If the black community had such subtle wisdom as these missives imply, they wouldn't be as continuously fucked as they are, whatever whitey did. But they're just people, with other things to do and only 1 eye towards politics. Like me, they suss up a candidate in about 37 secs, accurately or not, and build off that kernel of an impression. Burnt and mistreated much more than me, they will bake their experience into their evaluations.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 10:59pm

Whitey has the controls. We start in Iowa and New Hampshire.

by rmrd0000 on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 10:10am

North Carolina State University. Blair L.M. Kelley is the Assistant Dean for Interdisciplinary Studies and International Programs for the College of Humanities and Social Sciences. She is also Associate Professor of History and is on the faculty of the Public History graduate program.

She nails it.

by NCD on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 10:52pm

He wins with older blacks and Sanders wins with younger blacks, JUST LIKE THE REST OF THE DEM POPULATION

And not enough of the kids (of all colors) are not showing up to vote in the primaries is all that is going on, otherwise the race would be much closer.

Open your eyes and see the new world out there which partly happened after young Obamamaniacs became disillusioned by the Obama administration. It's not 1990 anymore, there is not a "black vote", there is only an elderly black vote vs. young black vote. The lanes are generational and ideological and also class (including urban poor together with rural poor in some instances, vs. suburban strivers.)

Edit to add: the only thing I'll give on is that most blacks still vote for Democrats. Beyond that, they are not a monolith to be won with certain carrots. They differ a great deal, just like Democrats with other colors of skin.

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 9:03am

Facts are our friends, in South Carolina, Sanders got the majority of the white youth vote. He split the black youth vote with Biden.

https://now.tufts.edu/news-releases/exclusive-analysis-south-carolina-young-people-support-sanders-smaller-margin

by rmrd0000 on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 10:09am

Trump specifically implements harmful programs because he is a racist. The polling document that a large majority of blacks view Trump as a racist. I don't understand why that is so hard for you accept.

by rmrd0000 on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 7:56pm

Because he doesn't do fucuckall because he's a racist - he does everything because he's an egomaniac psychopath. He doesn't give a fuck about your prism of "everything's about race" - he cares about who adores him most so he gives them what they want to hear his own name chanted back.

Listen to the sonuvabitch - he's still obsessed with how many came to his inauguration. He's not normal. There's a pandemic going in, yet he only cares about his name and reputation. Does his base include a bunch of racists? Sure. But Trump has no allegiance to anyone except maybe Ivanka. Everyone else is a matter of convenience, what they bring to him. If Jesus would praise him and bring him bigger crowds, he'd denounce racism in a heartbeat.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 11:40pm

You are entitled to your opinion.

I noted the poll suggesting that the overwhelmingly majority of blacks feel that Trump is a racist

Given that his policies have negative impacts on black people, they are considered racist.

Having people like Steve Bannon, Stephen Miller, and Jeff Sessions in his initial circle served as confirmation

Trump said John Lewis' district was impoverished

Trump said Baltimore was trash.

He told WOC to go back to where they came from.

Feel free to dissociate that from racism, but most blacks consider Trump to be a racist.

by rmrd0000 on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 11:03am

But this thread is not about voting for Trump. It is about Democratic party members voting to choose between candidates to oppose Trump and to win against him.

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 11:43am

Correct. Trump is the target.

The voting is about who can beat Trump.

There has been a surge in the Democratic vote triggered by Trump.

Thus far, black voters are choosing Biden over Sanders.

Bernie did not show up in Selma or Mississippi

Black youth did not pick Sanders in anything close to a majority of the total vote, he and Biden tied.

We will see what happens tonight.

by rmrd0000 on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 11:57am

Kitchen sink arguing isn't a grand rhetorical device.

Trump insults anyone and their origins in as vile terms as possible. Any "elite" Democratic city, any opponent. Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Biden, McCain, Romney... He also surrounds himself with Manafort, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, John Bolton, Rex Tillerson, Ben Carson, Mnuchin... Do you have a spreadsheet showing racists to non-racists?

In any case you continue to ignore my points - Trump is a despicable selfish human, such that "racist" can be largely a byproduct of "misanthrope" (whereas "sexist" is an area where he actually tries), and much of his racism is to provide meat to his fawning adorers - not exactly his same preoccupation and predilection before he entered the political ring.

by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 6:04pm

The label racist is pinned on Trump by citizens of the United States. In polling, the majority of the country label Trump a racist.

The Atlantic

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/trump-racism-comments/588067/

Vox

https://www.vox.com/2016/7/25/12270880/donald-trump-racist-racism-history

For black voters, you expect to see a surge in turnout because they want to voice an opinion about Trump.

Before Trump entered the political ring, he was sued for housing discrimination

https://www.npr.org/2016/09/29/495955920/donald-trump-plagued-by-decades-old-housing-discrimination-case

Trump also called for the execution of the Exonerated Five. He has never apologized. Trump is a racist.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/18/nyregion/central-park-five-trump.html

Trump is a Birther

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/29/16713664/trump-obama-birth-certificate

by rmrd0000 on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 6:45pm

I do not give a fuck about your racist racist racist preoccupation when he's burning down the country, mismanaging a pandemic, selling out our interests to Putin MBS and Erdogan, completely obstructing Justice and interfering with the court system, and the only thing you obsess on is stuff related to the color of your skin and whether hes a "racist". Manson was a racist, but that's hardly the most important thing in his bio.

by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 6:50pm

Hey you're mention of Manson as an example is actually interesting in that he pre-figured Putin's program with the trolling. He dreamed of sowing chaos between the races, was hoping to start a race war by making the murders look racial, and then he was gonna take over the world!

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 8:18pm

You do not get to determine who or what is racist.

I point out data from polls and Trump's pattern of behavior. Trump is a racist.

Trump is in power because a segment of white voters had no problem voting for a racist.

You list most of Trump's pathologies, but we still have a segment of white voters willing to re-elect him.

The racist pathology was the flashing warning sign

Suppressing votes was a warning sign

Homophobia and misogyny were warning signs.

No pity olympics

Now that he is obstructing justice, violating emoluments, rigging the courts, working with foreign agents, and trying to ignore a pandemic, you have a problem.

Yep. my Spidey-sense skin is yelling "Told you so".

The only way out is going to be voting turnout with blacks, Latinos, LGBTQ, and a subset of white voters who all knew what this racist was going to do.

The black turnout in SC looks like it has helped Biden win MI, MO, and MS.

by rmrd0000 on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 9:21pm

You do not get to determine who or what is racist.

Neither do you. You and anyone else gets to post their opinion and make their arguments to support that opinion. In a good discussion people would debate those arguments. But I don't see you addressing any of the arguments posted.

by ocean-kat on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 9:31pm

The absurdity of the statement stands for itself. Pseudonym rmrd of the internet, who claims he is black, but could be a typing dog, tells Pseudonym Peracles, who he presumes is white but could also be a typing dog, tells Peracles that only rmrd can speak for all victims of racism. Why precisely? Really, why?

Edit to add: also "racism" it's just one word which originaly had a very simple meaning but one that has come to mean many different things to many different people. So that polls about who is or isn't a "racist" without further elaboration and interpretation on what is meant by the word are certainly NOT "facts"! Ridiculous all around.

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 9:58pm

I have repeatedly provided with polling data indicating that blacks and the entire country feels that Trump is a racist.

A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll finds that 83% of African Americans across the country believe President Trump is a racist and he's exacerbated the country's race problems while in office.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/washington-post-ipsos-poll-of-african-americans-jan-2-8-2020/a41b5691-e181-4cda-bb88-7b31935103d9/

Half of the country says Trump is racist

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/30/us/politics/is-trump-racist.html

Do try to keep up. Polls, not my opinion.

by rmrd0000 on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 10:11pm

The polls, it's all their opinion!!! The poll is asking opinion! Nearly everyone's got an opinion, no opinion is pretty rare.

Yes, we know, you harp on it continuously, 10,000 times over and over and over THAT'S EXACTLY THE POINT. PP is sick of hearing it over and over and over. We read it once, we don't need to read your "proof" and your list of links 10,000 times for two years. Why o why do you keep harping at us, what is the purpose? At the little group of members here? Do you have a desire to bay at the moon, or do you think we are all racists and need to be preached at like Savonorola screaming "repent"? We see it, two years ago, he's racist in his current incarnation, WE'VE MOVED ON TO THE NEWS, NOT THE OLDS. Hot tip: if you'd like your favorite (and nearly only) meme to go viral, this is not the place, not gonna work.

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 10:26pm

Manson, Piggies, race riots, Once Upon a Time in Spahn Ranch, 50 years later we get it, the 60s failed we all saw Easy Rider, Dennis Hopper, the shotgun. Altamont vs Woodstock, Hells Angels, Goodbye Ruby Tuesday, except we Gave Peace A Chance.

by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 10:44pm

Ideological lanes/Generational split still in effect: New Quinnipac national poll:

New @QuinnipiacPoll with Biden over Sanders 54-35

Moderate/Conservative
Biden 65
Sanders 23

Very Liberal
Sanders 62
Biden 33

65+
Biden 80
Sanders 11

18-34
Sanders 71
Biden 21

Ideological lanes/Generational split still in effecthttps://t.co/c3hGOtkVBS
— Bill Scher (@billscher) March 9, 2020

by artappraiser on Mon, 03/09/2020 - 6:44pm

Nate Silver:

Here are our delegate counts reflecting results *as currently reported* in all states and reallocating statewide delegates for dropouts as per DNC rules.

Biden 720
Sanders 640 (80 behind Biden)
Warren 58
Bloomberg 56
Buttigieg 18
Klobuchar 5
Gabbard 2
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 10, 2020

Bloomberg has fallen behind Warren as more states (especially CA) count late-returned ballots. Biden will probably also gain a bit more ground in California. The margin there has shrunk from Bernie +9 (election day) to Bernie +7 now and possibly headed for Bernie +5-ish or so.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 10, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 9:22am

Found retweeted by Richard Florida, the urban planning guy. On the California difference:

Perhaps nothing lays the groundwork for socialism, than the spectacle of obscene wealth amidst crushed aspirations. https://t.co/fy16McLoBM
— Joel Kotkin (@joelkotkin) March 10, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 10:05am

so far, primaries have shown a "suburban revolution for normalcy":

New: Bernie Sanders’ revolution faces a reckoning. His prospects hinge on a turnout boost of young people and he’s running out of time to deliver it.

A guide to watching Super Tuesday II:https://t.co/bBNLD4mL7v
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) March 10, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 12:10pm

Joe shows his knowledge of blue color lingo:

WATCH: "You’re full of sh*t," @JoeBiden tells a man who accused him of "actively trying to end our Second Amendment right."

"I support the Second Amendment," Biden adds while vising under-construction auto plant in Detroit. @CBSNews pic.twitter.com/sueOSBaY9P
— Bo Erickson CBS (@BoKnowsNews) March 10, 2020

Imagine Mayor Pete in same situation

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 12:47pm

Biden’s rapid response director on the factory floor “full of shit” video: https://t.co/Aa28xJJPCd
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) March 10, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 1:57pm

Nate Silver warns:

It could be kind of a slow night tonight FWIW.

* MI has a much more liberal early/absentee ballot law this year and that's expected to slow vote-counting
* WA votes by mail, which could mean a long wait to know who wins if it's close.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 10, 2020

* No exit polls in ND or ID, which means networks will wait longer to call.
* ND is a party-run primary; those are often slower to count.
* Dems Abroad results not expected until the wee hours of the morning at the soonest; officially they aren't promising results until March 23.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 10, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 4:22pm

Republican mayor of Sterling Heights, MI:

How could I look at those three kids and tell them I'm proud to support Donald Trump? I can't. I won't. I'm voting for @JoeBiden tomorrow and endorsing him for President of the United States. I hope you'll join me. #Biden2020 #MichiganPrimary https://t.co/GIA3PT5DNS
— Michael C. Taylor (@MayorMikeTaylor) March 9, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 6:47pm

p.s. Taylor backed Trump in 2016.

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 7:03pm

@ProjectLincoln founder. Bush 41/McCain/Kasich strategist:

After tonight it is time for all of us to rally around @JoeBiden and get to the task of trouncing @realDonaldTrump and his low travelers.
— John Weaver (@jwgop) March 10, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 6:52pm

Why some conservatives are voting in Michigan's Democratic primary

"This is why we get do-overs," said one former Trump voter.

By Dasha Burns and Casey Silvestri @NBCNews.com, March 9

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — Katey Morse is on a journey of political atonement.

"I've gone on Facebook and apologized to family and friends and said hey, I made a mistake," the 39-year-old Michigan resident said last year of her 2016 vote for Donald Trump.

Morse said that she got caught up in Trump's celebrity and was impressed by his business record. And she assumed that the bravado she saw and heard on TV was just a character put on for the campaign trail that would subside once he got into office.

But she said she had learned since then that it wasn't an act. A turning point for her came in March 2019, when she took her son to a Trump rally. She was horrified. Afterward, Morse had to have a conversation with the boy, then 7, about how not to talk about other people.

And as the Democratic primary season began to take shape last year, Morse started to consider voting blue.

It's a choice some moderate Republicans across the state are also grappling with ahead of Tuesday's Democratic primary contest. NBC News spent time with voters in Kent County, where Morse lives, just outside Grand Rapids. The hometown of Gerald Ford, the area is a traditionally Republican stronghold. Some Republicans here said they feel lost because they no longer recognize the party they grew up with. They're wary enough about another four years of Trump's presidency to consider the Democratic candidates [....]

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 7:11pm

MSNBC TV live analysis of exit polls is pushing that Bernie has lost a lot of white non-college voters in both MS and MO to Biden, way down from the levels he had when he was running against Hillary.

I just want to repeat what I said upthread: Joe knows how to talk the blue collar lingo.

Edit to add: they just officially called MS for Biden.

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 8:04pm

And CNN just called MO for Biden as well as MS. And they are commenting that in being able to call it so soon means that Sanders is doing more poorly against Biden than he did in 2016.

They are also talking about how Sanders relied on young voters too much and that they are not showing up. And how blue collar voters are switching to Biden allover the place.

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 8:32pm

The big story in Michigan: the shifting allegiance of working-class white Dems since '16.

Pretty much the entire Upper Peninsula voted for Sanders in '16. So far, huge Biden margins.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 9:19pm

Yup!

Stunning. Biden’s comeback is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Two weeks ago he was toast. Two short weeks. https://t.co/Nj5TpcuRro
— David French (@DavidAFrench) March 11, 2020

Er: Mr. Wolraich, anything to say?

Edit to add: CNN just called MI for Biden.

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 8:59pm

.@JoeBiden rolls in Mich, Mo and Miss, taking command of the primary with the coalition that propelled him last week: black voters, white suburbanites and the rural whites who backed Bernie in '16

first crack w @alexburnsNYT >https://t.co/iil7RAp7Bi
— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) March 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 10:10pm

The Bulwark-Never Trumpers impressed:

“Four years ago the Republican party rolled over for a populist charlatan. This year, the Democratic party fought back against their own populist charlatan—and won.”

New from ⁦@Timodc⁩ https://t.co/xm09ihwIuU
— Sarah Longwell (@SarahLongwell25) March 11, 2020

The Democratic Party is "hardier than the GOP had been. The Democratic coalition isn’t as reactionary. They have strong voting blocks that aren’t as easily seduced by grifters. This isn’t an opinion. It’s just a plain fact." https://t.co/8hcBUGiLh6
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) March 11, 2020

There are two major parties in America. Both have problems. But right now one of them is far healthier than the other.
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) March 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 11:28pm

Major age gap is still there in MI:

This is really ominous. https://t.co/FL9NFH8exn
— Harry Siegel (@harrysiegel) March 11, 2020

At same, turnout "through the roof":

In Michigan turnout is through the roof - 314,808 more ballots this year were cast than at the same period in 2016, for a 79% increase. Democratic primary voters are . https://t.co/VdzUnymAqm
— adrienneelrod (@adrienneelrod) March 10, 2020

Networks say Washington has a lot of votes counted but it is incredibly close.

But Nate Silver says:

One of the challenges for Sanders is that there's not really a state to hang his hat on in the next 2 weeks. FL and GA were always gonna be rough, IL and OH aren't looking hot in light of MI, and in AZ, the age of the electorate seems to be outweighing his strength among Latinos.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 11, 2020

And Michael Moore was just talking real upset on MSNBC about how the poor struggling youth vote and Latinos may not turn out in Nov. unless Joe changes his tune. As if Sanders had already lost. He did not refer to the lack of turnout in the youngest age group, though. Which many others are citing, including Chris Hays just now on CNBC who started his coverage saying older voters are coming out "in droves."

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/10/2020 - 11:53pm

Maybe with that "revolution" dead we can focus on the doable, along with down-ticket and statewide races this year. Hope Steyer's and Bloomberg's and Yang's pockets still have some oomph to combat the malarkey.

by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/11/2020 - 2:09am

To do something you have to have something you want to do. And biden doesn't. Except perhaps restore comity to the senate.

by ocean-kat on Wed, 03/11/2020 - 2:44am

If AOC and Pelosi work together in the House and there's comity/a majority in the Senate, I don't think we have to drive everything thru Dear Leader. Technically the Legislative branch makes laws.

by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/11/2020 - 5:50am

AOC excels at this kind of corporate cross-examination.
What's the legislation or regulatory fix to improve things?
Even Biden's aware of classic housing shortages/high rents,
and tax avoidance, et al. The claim has always been made
that these successful companies will provide good paying jobs.
When 1/3 of tellers are on assistance, that's either a problem,
or a market fix that needs to be applied wider to other industries.
Of course the WTO might complain about illegal subsidies...
not sure how that compares to some wealthier EU countries.

.@RepKatiePorter to Wells Fargo CEO: How many of your tellers are receiving public assistance in this country?

Wells Fargo CEO: I'm not aware

Katie Porter: It's one-third. pic.twitter.com/z4SKn1nfsu
— Public Citizen (@Public_Citizen) March 10, 2020

by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/11/2020 - 7:05am

Washington state, per exit poll

White, no college degree
Biden 45%
Sanders 33%
Warren 9%

White, college+
Biden 42%
Sanders 26%
Warren 16%

[These two groups make up >80% of the WA Dem electorate]
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) March 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 03/11/2020 - 1:15am

Joe Walsh:

Yes, Sean Hannity is an idiot, and yes, he’s a big bore, but listening to Hannity tells you exactly what Trump is thinking. And man oh man, it’s crystal clear that Donald Trump is scared to death of Joe Biden. https://t.co/TwW8MSOdRu
— Joe Walsh (@WalshFreedom) March 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 03/11/2020 - 1:40pm

Rick Wilson sure can turn a clever phrase once in a while:

Mullah Bernie is about to declare a fatwa against the establishment billionaires in Mississippi, Missouri, and Michigan.
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) March 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 03/11/2020 - 1:51pm

like I said upthread, the blue collar lingo:

All relevant questions. https://t.co/yp49GpOFug
— jelani cobb (@jelani9) March 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 03/11/2020 - 2:46pm

yes, read it:

This by ⁦@Edsall⁩ is about a lot more than Sanders. Definitely worth a read. https://t.co/4CPGYgAZXK
— stuart stevens (@stuartpstevens) March 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 03/11/2020 - 3:14pm

538: After Super Tuesday, Joe Biden Is A Clear Favorite To Win The Nomination

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