MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Auto executives maintained their optimism about taking electric vehicles to the mass market after two studies cast doubt on Americans' willingness to pay for the technology.
Jason Forcier, vice president of the automotive solutions group at battery manufacturer A123 Systems, told a conference in Novi the market for electrified vehicles in 2020 will exceed 50% of sales, including stop-start hybrids. Mark Perry, Nissan's North American product planning chief, said pure electric vehicles should reach more than 10% in the U.S. in the next decade.
"Cars in the road are really the only way to get this done," Perry said, arguing the electric vehicle market will take off once buyers start noticing other EVs on streets and in neighbors' garages.
Countering the enthusiasm at the Automotive News Green Car Conference were two reports issued Tuesday, one by the Boston Consulting Group and the second by the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor.
In the U.S., consumers will tend to stick with conventional gasoline engines because automakers here have been able to get substantial fuel economy from those engines at lower-than-expected costs, BCG said.
The Center for Automotive Research took a more pessimistic view. It forecast U.S. consumers will see all car sticker prices jump between $3,700 and $9,000 by 2025 simply to cover manufacturers' increased costs of meeting possible tougher government fuel economy requirements.
Comments
Note that Forcier is including Stop-Starts, aka Microhybrids, in his 50% estimate of electrified vehicle sales.
by Donal on Mon, 06/20/2011 - 8:53am
There's little doubt in my mind that gas prices will continue to rise--though not in a straight line--over time, unless China and India and other emerging nations implode.
I have equally little doubt that battery technology will continue to improve and continue to come down in price. Doesn't all technology?
Unless another fuel steals its thunder, this bodes well for electric cars.
I will say this, though, apart from cost of gas, I'm not sure most people see much value in electric cars. I guess they have greater torque, so there is that. But do they do anything better in an automotive sense than gas cars? Fewer moving parts; fewer repairs. But that doesn't really move the blood, does it?
So their growth, I think, will come from problems with the gas cars, rather than from the inherent superiority of electric cars as cars.
by Peter Schwartz on Mon, 06/20/2011 - 5:24pm
I suppose once a community reaches a critical mass of EVs, people will start to notice cleaner air and really like it. That could make folks really like the EVs.
Sort of like smoking. Folks started to really like walking into a bar or sit in an airplane and not having to inhale billows of smoke.
by Peter Schwartz on Mon, 06/20/2011 - 5:27pm
It would make sense for cities to mandate EVs or hybrids in EV mode within their limits. London has started something like that with their Low Emission Zone and Congestion Charging.
by Donal on Mon, 06/20/2011 - 5:48pm