Bernie Sanders has the advantage on Super Tuesday as rivals jockey to hold down his delegate count

By artappraiser on Sun, 03/01/2020 - 10:48am |

Bernie Sanders has the advantage on Super Tuesday as rivals jockey to hold down his delegate count, @danbalz reports. https://t.co/rf1rahadhn
— Matt Viser (@mviser) March 1, 2020

URL:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bernie-sanders-has-the-advantage-on-super-tuesday-as-rivals-jockey-to-hold-down-his-delegate-count/2020/02/29/750e8b58-5a43-11ea-9000-f3cffee23036_story.html

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Oh look, right next to above story in my Twitter feed, here's yet another wild card for Super Tuesday and its aftermath:

Thread: #COVID19 #Coronavirus updates & data.

I will repeat this, but really important: cases coming out of the US WILL EXPLODE in the coming days. This is NOT a cause for panic. These EXISTING cases are finally being diagnosed, since testing is now more broadly available. 1/
— (((Howard Forman))) (@thehowie) March 1, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/01/2020 - 10:52am

Bernie's got big money to spend post Super Tuesday:

Sanders campaign says it raised $46.5 million (!) in February — 2.2 million donations, 350K first-time donors.

Campaign also announces TV ad buys in nine post-Super Tuesday states that vote 3/10 and 3/17.
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) March 1, 2020

But right away I think: there's no guarantee he will spend it wisely rather than counter-productively! Zealots are like that.

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/01/2020 - 11:23am

This is quite the narrative-buster. https://t.co/ym7HkDbjjg
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) March 1, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/01/2020 - 11:28am

I think this point Warner is making, if stressed, will make many who are not allout Bernie fans think twice about voting for him:

JUST IN: Ex-US Sen. John Warner, five-term #Va Republican who backed @HillaryClinton over @realDonaldTrump in ‘16, breaks w/ party again, endorsing @JoeBiden: ‘We’re going from an untested president to a thoroughly tested president. We’re not taking a gamble as we did w/ Trump.’
— Jeff E. Schapiro (@RTDSchapiro) March 1, 2020

Think it might especially hit hard at Obama/Trump swings who now regret taking a gamble on Trump. The "pie in the sky" factor.

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/01/2020 - 6:06pm

Bernie gender gap in the actual voting so far:

One trend in early-state exit/entrance polls: a gender gap in Bernie Sanders' support. He draws consistently more from Democratic men than from women.

Iowa: 26% men/20% women (+6)
N.H.: 31% men/23% women (+8)
Nev.: 38% men/30% women (+8)
S.C.: 24% men/17% women (+7)
— Steven Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve) March 1, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/01/2020 - 6:09pm

Pete Buttigieg is dropping out. Comments and analysis begin with

Amazing https://t.co/xcV4euqBRe
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) March 1, 2020

Like Russia and Wikileaks in 2016, Trump hoping the Democrats don’t unify behind a nominee and Bernie supporters stay home if he is not the nominee. https://t.co/ucbX8FnYLC
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 1, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/01/2020 - 6:48pm

It's all the others doing whatever they have to do to hurt Bernies delegate counts now. Just heard CNN report that says Pete studied the numbers and believes dropping out now is the best way to block Bernie getting too many delegates. Went on Twitter, saw same message about Amy here:

After super Tuesday. Her job is to block Bernie in her home state of Minnesota. https://t.co/qFA7Fv7zUz
— DON (@ItsDonovan98) March 1, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/01/2020 - 6:57pm

Many stronger Buttigieg states--ME, CO, UT--were also states where Biden was in jeopardy of not hitting 15%. Even if his support breaks evenly, good for Biden--and it might not be even.
Elsewhere, Buttigieg support is concentrated in affluent areas, where it'll break Biden
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 1, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/01/2020 - 7:00pm

PeteDropout.jpg pic.twitter.com/aW0PtaiJrC
— Lucas (@lfbllrd) March 1, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/01/2020 - 7:02pm

Nate Silver:

Buttigieg dropping out may actually increase the likelihood of a contested convention. He was polling at <15% almost everywhere on Super Tuesday, meaning he was tracking to get very few delegates, but his votes will help other candidates to get over 15% and get delegates. https://t.co/KE1j1UjQvh
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 2, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 03/01/2020 - 7:04pm

Bernie Sanders has the advantage on Super Tuesday as rivals jockey to hold down his delegate count

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