Confirmed: it was white male voters who booted Trump out of office

By artappraiser on Fri, 09/03/2021 - 4:26am |

The stat i look back to about 2020 is that averaging across the exits, CES (i.e. CCES), Catalist and Pew voter verified data shows that Trump's margin shrunk by 7 points among white men compared to 2016. Among all other groups, he closed the gap by 0.5 points compared to 2016.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 3, 2021

URL:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1433597341609648129?s=20

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Galaxy Brain (but kind of serious): If this happens, it will be the best and most important victory for wokeness... https://t.co/y217Ueo3L0
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) September 2, 2021

I think it's really curious that it's an influx of "Latino and Asian voters". Really makes you wonder what weird pieties are being referenced that black voters aren't affected by this supposed exodus.
— Dr. Mansa Keita (@rasmansa) September 2, 2021

I think Black and Asian voters had similar, though modest shifts to the GOP in 2020? Not sure though. @davidshor will know.
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) September 3, 2021

No, black votes didn't shift, though that was a frequent early talking point.

I am jesting though in acting like I don't suspect something else in the "weird pieties". There are some old fashioned ideas I suspect at play, with modern language though ("CRT"). pic.twitter.com/OxquqBBalx
— Dr. Mansa Keita (@rasmansa) September 3, 2021

Huh. OK, thought there was a small shift. Did Asian voters shift at all?
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) September 3, 2021

There's unfortunately no definitive answer to some of these questions, but Catalyst's data is the best I think and it shows all non-white groups shifting at least a little toward Trump. https://t.co/CpZioYMc2v pic.twitter.com/BFLM5OiI2E
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) September 3, 2021

Pew's numbers are a little different though pic.twitter.com/Dgtar27EKp
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) September 3, 2021

Got it. So basically, no Asian shift, a substantial Latino shift, and possibly some gender polarization among Black voters.
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) September 3, 2021

Asians are something folks disagree on. Vietnamese/Korean neighborhoods for example clearly swung toward Trump.

Black women swung more toward Trump than Black men (though that's true for all racial groups and the gender split was more even for black voters than other groups).
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) September 3, 2021

Big picture the main story for the non-white decline is the same forces that are driving the white vote: education polarization and ideological polarization, which are closely related because ideology is so correlated to education. pic.twitter.com/OgyzIXZSLC
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) September 3, 2021

[edit to fix one messed up embed]

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/03/2021 - 5:54am

Separate point added by Yglesias:

In my precinct in DC, Trump supported shot up by 50 percent between 2016 and 2020.

At this pace, Logan Circle will be a GOP stronghold by 2044. pic.twitter.com/R7ZdmuCm7w
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) September 3, 2021

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/03/2021 - 5:57am

More white women than men voted for Trump? That's not how I heard it. I read that he got the votes of 72 percent of white men without a college degree, and 62 percent of the white women without one. For whites with a college degree it was 54 percent of the men and 45 percent of the women.

by Aaron Carine on Fri, 09/03/2021 - 3:35pm

interesting argument -- but I think @willwilkinson should note that Larry the Cable Guy went to private school in Florida and his accent is fake https://t.co/BUgKAgyMa7
— ryan cooper (@ryanlcooper) August 31, 2021

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/03/2021 - 5:20am

"If a politician or activist ignores the public, Shor told me, it is easy for them to think “we’re so progressive, we’re so amazing”. But what they are really doing is “privileging the concerns of rich, educated people”." https://t.co/6GhMUmU7Qp
— Peter Moskos (@PeterMoskos) September 3, 2021

by artappraiser on Sat, 09/04/2021 - 1:17pm

“If you had told me in 2012 that most of the Democratic field would embrace [slavery] reparations and decriminalising border crossings, I would have thought that a joke.” Talking about divisive issues or issues that “people don’t care about”, said Shor, is damaging. Most voters know this, but many in the media and politics do not.

The problem is that political debate is shaped by the few, not the many. Young white graduates, Shor noted, account for one in 20 voters, yet make up “a literal majority of people who work in politics”. Many are unaware of, or uninterested in, the unpopularity of their own biases.

Biden is from a different political generation, one that Shor believes has a better grip on how to retain power. “Biden just intuitively understands that defunding the police is crazy.” Yet as the US has polarised in recent decades – for every 100 voters, only a handful are now swing voters – the rules of the game have changed. The incentives for young politicians today are clear: raise money from the hyper-engaged, cater to hyper-partisan outlets, and build a digital following. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Democratic congresswoman from New York, exemplifies the new tribal politician.

For Shor, it is clear how to approach politics. “Winning is very important. You should do popular things. You should actually appeal to the median voter. I guess you can call it ‘popularism’.” To win, Democrats need to “keep the conversation on the issues that people trust us on, and away from the issues that they don’t”. It is hard for parties of the centre-left to win by talking about immigration and crime, or the more radical aspects of social justice, added Shor.

by artappraiser on Sat, 09/04/2021 - 1:27pm

"Do you think the Democratic Party should move more to the left and embrace more liberal policies, move more to the center and embrace more moderate policies, or ... stay where it is?"

White Dems: 39 move to center, 32 move to left
Black Dems: 41 move to center, 23 move to left
— Will Saletan (@saletan) September 4, 2021

Full data (among Democrats):

All: 40 move to center, 29 move to left, 31 stay
White: 39 move to center, 32 move to left, 29 stay
Hispanic: 39 move to center, 29 move to left, 32 stay
Black: 41 move to center, 23 move to left, 36 stay

Source: https://t.co/qVrGsGhjSn
— Will Saletan (@saletan) September 4, 2021

Same poll: Black voters support "the Biden administration passing legislation to invest in things like paid leave, public education, and an expansion of Medicare that includes dental and vision benefits," 87-6. Dem voters support it 91-3.

Breakdowns by (party x race) not shown.
— Will Saletan (@saletan) September 4, 2021

by artappraiser on Sat, 09/04/2021 - 6:13pm

Trump's coalition got and is getting browner and the liberal camp appears to be attracting more and more white people. Someone smarter than me can figure all that out.

by Orion on Mon, 09/06/2021 - 3:29am

one thing I notice is the right wingers are not just attacking the crime thing, they are stressing that all urban areas under blue government are having a downfall of civilization:

They love to show poverty in India but never talk about homeless people there https://t.co/tCxuWNUEW2
— Mohit Gulati (@desimojito) September 6, 2021

Get out of cities
— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) September 5, 2021

I have no idea who this Mohit Gulati is that's retweeting Posobiec, he says "global citizen" but I note the Indian flag and that he has 137,000 + followers, some of which no doubt would be Indian-Americans.

Edit to add this which was tweeted in reply to Posobiec:

Welcome to Boston pic.twitter.com/ZeLHsSfzMk
— Bryan Goldie (@brygoldie) September 6, 2021

by artappraiser on Mon, 09/06/2021 - 3:50pm

Shor making controversial arguments about electoral politics that are obvious to anyone not living in fantasy.

Successor Ideology, however, is optimized for obtaining non electoral power: terrorizing your peers into acquiescence does indeed produce unanimity of thought pic.twitter.com/6Mptu80cnj
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) September 8, 2021

And a system with a powerful administrative state embedded within a sprawling nonprofit sector controlled by the white graduates who are 5 percent of the electorate but the majority of the political class recommends “sex assigned at birth” as the correct way to speak
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) September 8, 2021

Nobody elected anyone responsible for any of this: donor money and a pipeline of sinecures for categories of college students manufactured the moral crisis of cis hegemony and and now fights it with inclusive language mandates https://t.co/6Jy5Jm6LHO
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) September 8, 2021

It’s all an enormous make work program for moral entrepreneurs
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) September 8, 2021

Transcript of this interview: https://t.co/kU81QWJ3fm
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) September 8, 2021

by artappraiser on Wed, 09/08/2021 - 1:33am

p.s. Yang's got proof it's not just a minor university thing, like some here at Dagblog have argued, it's in government documents that are paid for with taxes; he retweeted this for example:

For example, "assigned male/female at birth" is preferable to "biologically male/female," according to the guide—which also stresses that public health officials should "avoid jargon and use straightforward, easy to understand language." https://t.co/Yl22vp3nTK
— Aaron Sibarium (@aaronsibarium) September 7, 2021

This is exactly the kind of nonsense that Shor is talking about (and Carville for that matter, in saying "The Woke are a problem, and everyone knows it"), the type of thing that Republicans play up big. And exactly the kind of thing that turns off normal people as nonsense from moonbeam elites that they don't want to see in their government. And they certainly don't want to see their taxes go to it. Nor do they want to see government bureaucrats talking this way.

by artappraiser on Wed, 09/08/2021 - 1:46am

How Educational Differences Are Widening America’s Political Rift https://t.co/8Xk8CXGwnX
— Thomas Edsall (@Edsall) September 8, 2021

by artappraiser on Wed, 09/08/2021 - 2:15pm

Confirmed: it was white male voters who booted Trump out of office

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