My linked article has interestingly caused disagreement between Nate Silver and Matt Stoller on Twitter about interpretation of the 2016 election:
If the 2016 election was a referendum on Obama, Clinton would have won in a near-landslide. Voters on the 2016 exit poll approved of Obama by an 8-point margin (53-45), larger than his margin of victory in 2008. https://t.co/Dg3B2MafIZ
How surprising - "the way to win is my way, not your way". Mixes DCCC/DNC fundraising and campaign issues with what Pelosi's doing. Ignores again the relative popularity of centrist views in 2016 - defeated by illegal money, vote suppression and foreign intrigue rather than unhappy voters - and ignores again the relative conservatism of the American public even though some progressive issues will inspire them at the right time. In other words the same old political masturbation.
(I'm guessing the in-fighting with Bernie/far left and the social media trolls along with the utter incompetence of the bankrupt DNC derailed the 50-state push plan, but maybe it was a false platitude from the start)
No, "take a knee" or "black lives matter" didn't engage the public more than faux misguided patriotism and football allegiance. Yes, female rights and participatuon did catch on finally in 2018 (though actually it's been slow but steady gains over 10 years). We still like our wars and are afraid for our jobs vs immigrants, have a mixed relationship to government spending on needed progerams vs belt-tightening "responsibility"/austerity.
Sure, I'll support a conservative like Tester in Montana and centrists dems in other districts. I understand that the nation isn't as liberal as I am. But do we have to accept a far right dem like Lipinski in an overwhelmingly democratic if not liberal district in Illinois? Do we really want the DCCC to blacklist firms that work with primary challengers?
Pretty funny to hear a right winger talk about Obama governing badly. These right wing nut cases aren’t governing at all. There is no plan, no vision, just a bunch of incompetent people saying mean things about women, POC and and each other.
Obama governed badly mostly due to Republicans spending his 8 years cleaning up their shit by throwing more hyper-partisan stink bombs.
Hillary had to be pro-Obama and a be-all-things-to-everyone woman while dealing with Republican overreach, Russian attacks and pouty Progressives "holding/not-holding their nose". Biden can repackage her campaign without ever having stuck his neck out and lead the pack from day one.
Re: Stoller's right-wing?I was confused by that part of Dean's comment, too. I thought maybe he is referring to something in the actual GQ article that Silver and Stoller are commenting on? In any case, I just thought it of interest that he felt inspired to comment to Nate. Simply because it's not as if he's got no experience on topic.
Yeah, and Howard was pretty awesome both about the Iraq War and introducing internet organizing and doing the 50-state push. [Stoller to his credit compliments him on organizing war opposition when the media was in total lockstep.]
The Van Jones Show on 06/01/19 had two grass roots activists discussing priorities. Jobs and the impact of tariffs were the main issues discussed by the activist representing a mostly white Midwest constituency. The activist representing the black community focused on how race impacted access to health care, education and resulted in lower pay for the same job.
The preceding segment was an interview with a white family that voted for Obama then voted for Trump. The parents of the family realized that they had been lied to. The economic picture worsened under Trump. The parents seemed willing vote for a Democrat if there was a message about jobs. The family didn’t care about social issues.
Democrats will have to craft a message that addresses both anxieties.
Link to YouTube of the broadcast
The segment with the two activists starts at about 12:52
Even though the multiracial coalition that re-elected Obama in 2012 and stayed home in 2016 was large enough to change the outcome of the election, the Democratic leadership has focused on voters who swung from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Party leaders have also taken to kneecapping up-and-coming progressives. Earlier this year, the DCCC—the party’s House campaigns arm—announced that it will blacklist firms that work with primary challengers, despite their delivering exciting new talent, reflective of its base, like congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts.
This has led them to positions at odds with the values of the Democratic electorate. In the very same week that Alabama passed a full-fledged abortion ban, in what appears to be a coordinated, Republican-led attack on women’s reproductive rights in several states, DCCC chairwoman Cheri Bustos planned a fundraiser for Illinois congressman Dan Lipinski, an anti-choice, anti-LGBT Democrat who opposed the Affordable Care Act and refused to endorse President Barack Obama in 2012. In his safe blue district, he faces a primary challenge from mainstream, pro-choice progressive Marie Newman, who lost many of her consultants after the DCCC announced its blacklist
The backlash against the fundraiser for Lipinski—who supports abortion bans—was, predictably, swift and furious. Facing pressure, Bustos dropped out of it, but she had already signaled to the base that she valued incumbency over protecting a woman’s right to choose from the onslaught of right-wing attacks.
Bustos also made it clearthat she sees the path to victory for Democrats in white swing voters, rather than in mobilizing the base of young voters and voters of color. She, along with other members in leadership like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer routinely undermine their colleagues' bold initiatives, such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal (though this may also be related to their acceptance of fossil-fuel industry donations), despite the popularity of these policies among Democratic voters. Leadership routinely says that they have to hold the “center” and “mainstream.”
Data for Progress, a think tank that studies public opinion and voter file data, analyzed the path forward for the Democratic Party, and the party could make big gains by a strategy that mobilizes progressives, rather than continuously undermining their base.
This orientation toward the middle instead of values and vision is demobilizing. Voters who are defined as “moderate” often hold a mix of extreme left and right positions. When the party machine prioritizes incumbents and moderates over its principles, voters become reluctant to identify as Democrats, and reluctant to vote.Take, for example, the party’s treatment of black women. Black women are a powerful voting segment for the party, and yet they receive pennies to the dollar in resources spent by campaigns. They are three times more likely to die in childbirth than white women, and the current health-care system is failing this community, and yet this is seldom mentioned by Democratic candidates.Resting on its civil rights–era support for black communities, the party is taking this community for granted. Now, the slip in black support for Democrats is beginning to show—voter file data from 2018 shows that black men, in particular, are increasingly identifying as independents. It’s not just black votes they have to worry about: The right has been working for a long time to make inroads among Latinx voters and hold power in the face of demographic change.The results of demobilization are devastating. As the chart below shows, in four key states in 2016, there were more progressives who voted in 2012 and then stayed home in 2016 than the margin of victory in each state. Many of these voters are young people of color.
Comments
How surprising - "the way to win is my way, not your way". Mixes DCCC/DNC fundraising and campaign issues with what Pelosi's doing. Ignores again the relative popularity of centrist views in 2016 - defeated by illegal money, vote suppression and foreign intrigue rather than unhappy voters - and ignores again the relative conservatism of the American public even though some progressive issues will inspire them at the right time. In other words the same old political masturbation.
(I'm guessing the in-fighting with Bernie/far left and the social media trolls along with the utter incompetence of the bankrupt DNC derailed the 50-state push plan, but maybe it was a false platitude from the start)
No, "take a knee" or "black lives matter" didn't engage the public more than faux misguided patriotism and football allegiance. Yes, female rights and participatuon did catch on finally in 2018 (though actually it's been slow but steady gains over 10 years). We still like our wars and are afraid for our jobs vs immigrants, have a mixed relationship to government spending on needed progerams vs belt-tightening "responsibility"/austerity.
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 06/02/2019 - 4:03pm
Sure, I'll support a conservative like Tester in Montana and centrists dems in other districts. I understand that the nation isn't as liberal as I am. But do we have to accept a far right dem like Lipinski in an overwhelmingly democratic if not liberal district in Illinois? Do we really want the DCCC to blacklist firms that work with primary challengers?
by ocean-kat on Sun, 06/02/2019 - 4:35pm
Note Howard Dean replied to Nate Silver's tweet:
by artappraiser on Sun, 06/02/2019 - 6:47pm
Stoller's right-wing?
https://thebaffler.com/salvos/hamilton-hustle-stoller
Obama governed badly mostly due to Republicans spending his 8 years cleaning up their shit by throwing more hyper-partisan stink bombs.
Hillary had to be pro-Obama and a be-all-things-to-everyone woman while dealing with Republican overreach, Russian attacks and pouty Progressives "holding/not-holding their nose". Biden can repackage her campaign without ever having stuck his neck out and lead the pack from day one.
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 06/02/2019 - 11:12pm
Re: Stoller's right-wing?I was confused by that part of Dean's comment, too. I thought maybe he is referring to something in the actual GQ article that Silver and Stoller are commenting on? In any case, I just thought it of interest that he felt inspired to comment to Nate. Simply because it's not as if he's got no experience on topic.
by artappraiser on Mon, 06/03/2019 - 3:10am
Yeah, and Howard was pretty awesome both about the Iraq War and introducing internet organizing and doing the 50-state push. [Stoller to his credit compliments him on organizing war opposition when the media was in total lockstep.]
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 06/03/2019 - 6:29am
The Van Jones Show on 06/01/19 had two grass roots activists discussing priorities. Jobs and the impact of tariffs were the main issues discussed by the activist representing a mostly white Midwest constituency. The activist representing the black community focused on how race impacted access to health care, education and resulted in lower pay for the same job.
The preceding segment was an interview with a white family that voted for Obama then voted for Trump. The parents of the family realized that they had been lied to. The economic picture worsened under Trump. The parents seemed willing vote for a Democrat if there was a message about jobs. The family didn’t care about social issues.
Democrats will have to craft a message that addresses both anxieties.
Link to YouTube of the broadcast
The segment with the two activists starts at about 12:52
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wOFREy0049s
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 06/03/2019 - 8:15am
The article focuses on the divide
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 06/03/2019 - 7:26pm