Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster

By artappraiser on Wed, 04/13/2022 - 4:01am |

(found retweeted by David Shor)

I’m in Slow Boring today, writing about the grim outlook for Democrats in the Senate.

I think the situation is much worse than people realize. https://t.co/K0kCZnhzl4
— Simon Bazelon (@simon_bazelon) April 11, 2022

URL:

https://www.slowboring.com/p/democrats-are-sleepwalking-into-a?s=w

5203 reads

Comments

As rural and non-college educated voters have moved away from Democrats, the bias of the Senate has grown to a record high. There are currently only 38 (!) Senators who come from states that are more Democratic than the country as a whole. pic.twitter.com/bV7L97VDSX
— Simon Bazelon (@simon_bazelon) April 11, 2022

With cratering ticket splitting rates and declining incumbency advantage, this means that “normal” electoral performances in the next two cycles will result in *huge* Republican majorities.

How big? You can use the chart below from @davidshor to see for yourself. pic.twitter.com/ohWDOXEGeh
— Simon Bazelon (@simon_bazelon) April 11, 2022

If we want to avoid a gigantic Republican majority, Democrats are going to need to win big in 2024. That’s possible – but it won’t happen if the party remains as complacent as it is now. pic.twitter.com/r0Jgi2cP3j
— Simon Bazelon (@simon_bazelon) April 11, 2022

Simon what is the point in avoiding looking at undecideds per your footnote? If they represent a not insignificant portion of the polling right now, and are likely to favor the incumbency or opposition, seems a fairly big oversight to just ignore them when margins matter so much
— NOLA Zelicans (@BullCitySon) April 11, 2022

Two way is actually more stable and predictive of final polling averages! One of many things I’ve learned from @davidshor
— Simon Bazelon (@simon_bazelon) April 11, 2022

There really is no tendency for that cohort to break one way or the other? There are no undecideds on election day so I wonder how LV screens deal with them, then
— NOLA Zelicans (@BullCitySon) April 11, 2022

This senate math has been obvious since November 2016, people just refuse to look at simple numbers
— RedStateBlueState (280 character version) (@RStateBState) April 11, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 04/13/2022 - 4:13am

the replies I found the most interesting to date:

This analysis looks interesting, but how is "business as usual" defined in this context? That democratic politicians continue to advocate primarily to college-educated voters and discount the feelings of immigrant populations?
— Tim (@TAverianov42) April 11, 2022

Dems: party of the people*

*People means you make $400k/year
— just b (@psychesomatic) April 12, 2022

People do connect inflation with dem polices and it’s factually wrong.
— Tradingexternalities (@RFDLA) April 11, 2022

Democrats, ongoing: *desperately latching onto philosophies and causes unpopular with the electorate*

Democrats, November: "Why are we so unpopular?"
— japecake (@japecake) April 11, 2022

An unconstitutional refusal to enforce immigration laws, opening the border to hordes of unvetted aliens, criminals & drugs, bail "reform," violent crime waves, CRT, highest inflation, gas/food prices, rampant censorship, endless race-baiting. Dems asked for & deserve a romp.
— DelrayAve (@DelrayAvener) April 12, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 04/13/2022 - 4:31am

Nate Silver replying to others on some policy-related stuff:

Student loan debt peaks at around age 35 so I'm not really sure this follows. And very few voters of any age rank student debt as a top priority.https://t.co/J4ryqXspfG https://t.co/GgwzeGnshq pic.twitter.com/zGDPeOtRIY
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 12, 2022

Well, if you Google "unemployment 50-year low", you'll found lots of mainstream media headlines touting this. https://t.co/GYzRYYQCPj pic.twitter.com/ajwbNoDa2j
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 12, 2022

To be fair, I do think the media has a general bias toward negative news, i.e. "if it bleeds it leads". But this is something politicians have had to contend with since the dawn of journalism. The idea that the media has been particularly out of line on inflation is off-base.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 12, 2022

he retweeted this reply to him -

Yes. When political scientists talk about the economy mattering, it is Real Disposable Income growth that is the best correlated with election results. GDP growth is a 2nd best measure.
Incumbent party needs combination of wage growth and inflation where wages are increasing https://t.co/kKxcizRXOh
— Jonathan Ladd (@jonmladd) April 5, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 04/13/2022 - 4:42am

this is smart:

Just in: The White House weighs in on @GovAbbott's truck inspection order that is stalling border trade. "Governor Abbott’s actions are impacting people’s jobs, and the livelihoods of hardworking American families." pic.twitter.com/tKfm7ZA9hv
— John C. Moritz (@JohnnieMo) April 13, 2022

by artappraiser on Wed, 04/13/2022 - 9:58pm

"progressive" soldiers are currently afraid of bogeyman libertarian money and don't see he's really pretty much on their side - that coalition is there for the taking by Dems if only a few loud Woke could be sister souljah'd, but no -

So the “progressive” left is apparently now more concerned about social media ownership from a billionaire who makes electric cars and who wants freedom of speech than social media ownership from Saudi Arabia, Vanguard and Blackrock…?
— James Melville (@JamesMelville) April 15, 2022

The Twit Controversy. It's not Elon vs Twit. He's really against the true controllers of Twit. Remember the names. Vanguard and Blackrock. They have just been exposed and now watch the truth and fact finders, the Digital Warriors go to work on these 2. Tentacles everywhere.
— Arnold Finklea (@FinkleaArnold) April 14, 2022

These globalists hate when someone is trying to revive free speech..

Vanguard and BlackRock are the top two owners of Time Warner, Comcast, Disney and News Corp, four of the six media companies that control more than 90% of the U.S. media landscape.
— LeftSlayer (@Duanemurphy12) April 15, 2022

Can we get some antitrust action on Vanguard and Blackrock? Can we start a disruptor? cc @elonmusk @jack pic.twitter.com/qGIUCpMOV8
— Jose Minister of Doom (@ImperialLuis1) April 15, 2022

And there ya go folks... to the ones that say Vanguard and Blackrock don't own the world... Yes. YES TF THEY DO. https://t.co/HLKcVoGoT2
— RealLife Auggie (@Prettyface716) April 15, 2022

by artappraiser on Fri, 04/15/2022 - 3:40pm

I am reminded of this for some reason -

Why are people getting mad at this https://t.co/VojKBKOxWW
— Special Puppy (@SpecialPuppy1) April 14, 2022

by artappraiser on Fri, 04/15/2022 - 3:42pm

p.s. the big boys really know what they are doing:

Breaking News: Twitter rebuffed Elon Musk’s takeover bid with a so-called poison pill that would flood the market with new shares if he buys 15% of its stock. Musk currently owns more than 9%. https://t.co/x8IsysIFp0
— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 15, 2022

by artappraiser on Fri, 04/15/2022 - 3:45pm

then there's this thing - while progressives don't need to be sister souljah'd, they sure could use a "sit down and STFU" from a Jim Clyburn type at this time

Didn't Congressional Democrats spend several trillion dollars so far between the infrastructure bill and the rescue plan? I don't think it follows that they didn't do anything when in power. https://t.co/LSE5y8dAbM
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) April 15, 2022

I think the left always has to say the Democrats didn't do enough because it might be easier than acknowledging that some of the things they want Democrats to do are unpopular.
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) April 15, 2022

in the rare instance of a congressional rep lucky enough to have a majority progressive constituency, they should speak directly to them and not broadcast their thoughts nationally as representative of the Democratic party. We aren't working with a parliamentary system, until we have one it's in their own interest to be a team player with more moderate members or they'll just end up screaming at the wind.

by artappraiser on Fri, 04/15/2022 - 4:00pm

Boring campaign ads

https://digbysblog.net/2022/04/16/ask-your-advisers-if-narcolepsus-is-ri...

by PeraclesPlease on Sat, 04/16/2022 - 1:21pm

Alex Walker, a Democrat, is hoping that any attention he draws, whether people celebrate his message or dunk on him, will help transform him into an Internet phenomenon and defeat a Republican firebrand https://t.co/bvxaKdUE9v
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 15, 2022

by artappraiser on Sat, 04/16/2022 - 11:42pm

Global warming breakthru?

But does that mean success, or Dems were exaggerating?

We know how GOP will play it.

by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 04/17/2022 - 2:47pm

Gospel according to GOP

“I told you she was soft on crime,” says Josh Hawley.

“We can’t have these people teaching these sermons on public mounts, said Galilee Governor Ron DeSatanis. “Telling children to repent for their sins makes kids feel bad.”
— Michael Harriot (@michaelharriot) April 17, 2022

by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 04/17/2022 - 3:06pm

In battleground Arizona, both parties are plagued with infighting over what it means to be a true Republican or an authentic Democrat and how to win in November. https://t.co/L4nOU2SGuE pic.twitter.com/lzk2nd6yWl
— Eliza Collins (@elizacollins1) April 19, 2022

The arguments are over two very different things. Arizona GOP is split over whether to keep pushing Trump's false claims of a stolen election, even after a controversial audit reinforced Biden's win. Democrats are trying to figure out if more liberal candidates can win.
— Eliza Collins (@elizacollins1) April 19, 2022

“You don’t come back from this. I mean one side or the other wins,” Bill Gates, the chairman of the GOP-led Maricopa County Board of Supervisors which has been pushing back on claims of election fraud, said about his party. https://t.co/z0d0IxY0ao
— Eliza Collins (@elizacollins1) April 19, 2022

I talked to many GOP voters across the state who are convinced the election was stolen, despite no evidence of fraud substantial enough to change the election results. “I’m still wearing my Trump 2020 hat, because we can’t move on to 2022 and 2024 unless we fix 2020,” one said.
— Eliza Collins (@elizacollins1) April 19, 2022

Meanwhile, Democrats have a completely different issue. Many are frustrated at their senator over her willingness to break with the party on key priorities and there's a push to unseat Sinema in 2024. But first they have to try and get Kelly reelected. https://t.co/z0d0IxY0ao
— Eliza Collins (@elizacollins1) April 19, 2022

"We have every opportunity right now to blow it as well, if we don’t, out of our primaries, put forth candidates who can win general elections" https://t.co/QmQseW6yGE via @WSJ
— Kirk A. Bado (@kirk_bado) April 19, 2022

“Relations are now so strained that Ms. Sinema speaks to few Democrats in the state, according to several Arizona Democrats, and largely ignores grass-roots activists.”

always read ⁦@elizacollins1⁩ on AZ: https://t.co/Nt3rtA5Yvi
— Josh Jamerson (@joshjame) April 19, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 04/19/2022 - 4:42pm

Elizabeth Warren: Democrats Can Avoid Disaster in November

guest op-ed @ NYTimes.com, April 18, 2022

Democrats are the party of working people. Ahead of the 2020 election, we advanced ideas and plans that we believed would, in ways big and small, make our democracy and our economy work better for all Americans. Across this country, voters agreed with us — and gave us a majority in Washington so that we could deliver on those promises.

Republican senators and broken institutions have blocked much of that promised progress. Now Republicans are betting that a stalled Biden agenda won’t give Democrats enough to run on in the midterm elections — and they might be right. Despite pandemic relief, infrastructure investments and the historic Supreme Court confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson, we promised more — and voters remember those promises.

Republicans want to frame the upcoming elections to be about “wokeness,” cancel culture and the “militant left wing.” Standing up for the inherent dignity of everyone is a core American value, and Democrats are proud to do that every day. While Republican politicians peddle lies, fear and division, we should use every single one of the next 200 days or so before the election to deliver meaningful improvements for working people.

Democrats win elections when we show we understand the painful economic realities facing American families and convince voters we will deliver meaningful change. To put it bluntly: if we fail to use the months remaining before the elections to deliver on more of our agenda, Democrats are headed toward big losses in the midterms.

Time is running short. We need to finalize a budget reconciliation deal, making giant corporations pay their share to fund vital investments in combating climate change and lowering costs for families, which can advance with only 50 Senate votes. Other priorities can be done with the president’s executive authority. It’s no secret that I believe we should abolish the filibuster. But if Republicans want to use it to block policies that Americans broadly support, we should also force them to take those votes in plain view [.....]

by artappraiser on Tue, 04/19/2022 - 8:57pm

They actually are making the same analysis

WATCH: Mitch McConnell says Republicans will win back Congress unless they nominate too many extremists pic.twitter.com/54prpBqJk7
— The Beat with Ari Melber on MSNBC (@TheBeatWithAri) April 19, 2022

Carville: These are people who talk about testicle tanning… By and large, a large part of the Republican Party is out-and-out weird. Look at Peter Navarro… You’re telling me he’s a normal human being?!? No. And he’s not even among the worst pic.twitter.com/dVhDGH0eKe
— Acyn (@Acyn) April 19, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 04/19/2022 - 11:21pm

meanwhile, wtf is the DeSantis wing's problem? why so clueless?

i know im a disney mark but disney, arguably the most visible vehicle for american style capitalism that has ever existed, being branded as communist -- i dont think it will work. i just dont.
— Oliver Willis (@owillis) April 21, 2022

(edit for typo)

by artappraiser on Thu, 04/21/2022 - 3:11pm

Independent Evan McMullin vs Republican Mike Lee for US Senate just became the most important race in America this year. https://t.co/HDtzkpBdMJ
— Miles Taylor (@MilesTaylorUSA) April 23, 2022

Found via an Andrew Yang retweet!!! Clearly this development would interest him as he's been trying to start a 3rd party to counter the partisan divide

by artappraiser on Sat, 04/23/2022 - 9:21pm

Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster

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