Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are running neck-and-neck in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is surging and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich collapsing just four days before the state's Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll.

Romney drew the support of 23 percent of likely caucus-goers in Iowa – identified based on interest, chance of voting and past participation – ahead of Paul, at 21 percent.

They are followed by Santorum at 15 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6 percent.

The question in my mind right now is just how soft is Romney's support and just how intense is the Anti-Romney support.  Once these Romney supporters get around their neighbors who are feverish saying get behind Perry' or Newt or Santorum for the good the country, will they buckle. In other words, in a primary Romney would be sitting pretty good right now.  The same with Paul.  But in a caucus environment this might not be the case.

Also when one looks at 2008, it the map of Iowa looks the US in the general election.  Romney won in all of the urbans areas, while Huckebee took the rest of the state, geographically dominating the entire field.  Is Romney's, and Paul's support even, still in the urban areas? Will Romney get his clock cleaned in the rural areas of the state?

(From a delegate point of view, one does have to remember that although McCain only received 17% of the popular vote, all of the state's delegates were allocated to him at the June state convention. And there was some rifts created between the Christian Right and the Establishment Republicans in the process.  How much of this is remembered by the ones who will definitely show up on Tuesday?)