[POLLS] Biden bolsters lead over Trump in Michigan after first debate

By artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 12:26am |

The number of mail-in ballots Trump's people are going to have to lose, invalidate, or refuse to count in order to win this thing is...large. https://t.co/UjpkkCjIHm
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) October 6, 2020

URL:

https://www.clickondetroit.com/decision-2020/2020/10/06/poll-biden-bolsters-lead-over-trump-in-michigan-after-first-debate/

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While we've all been focusing on the presidency, the Senate has moved out of toss-up range and Democrats are now nearly 2:1 favorites. A long way from a sure thing, but trending poorly for the GOP. https://t.co/eev4w6wba9
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 5, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 1:26am

Poll: Kelly tops McSally by double digits in Arizona Senate race https://t.co/4QZr4q04qj pic.twitter.com/Po3893o6sF
— The Hill (@thehill) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 2:05am

No shit sherlocks, no surprise:

Poll: 74 percent of voters want Senate to take on COVID-19 relief before SCOTUS nominee https://t.co/sRBRRKy9ky pic.twitter.com/c8Le58UhjW
— The Hill (@thehill) October 6, 2020

I again think: GOP Senate doesn't really want the majority, they are purposely sabotaging themselves in order to have a conservative Supreme Court and win back the Senate in the next election after the new Senate gets blamed for all the problems they left behind.

They also don't have the chops to deal with a huge debt load properly with the stupid economics advisors they have, so they just wring their hands and hope their supporters know how to build moats with crocodiles for bad times?

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 10:27am

New poll shows Jaime Harrison tied with Lindsey Graham in US Senate race https://t.co/sZJqovoohQ via @msnbc
— John Jaques (@JohnJaques1) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 10:30am

Breaking: @SaraGideon, @SenatorCollins within *1 point* in #MESen in new @bangordailynews/ Digital Research poll. https://t.co/tLMqLCLdPN #mepolitics
— Michael Shepherd (@mikeshepherdME) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 1:35pm

Kanas > doable! "Tied." She's a doctor, former Republican, knows "what wrong with...":

Listen, Kansas is winnable. They just elected a Dem Gov, and a poll from 2 weeks ago had Bollier UP two points.

And we win Kansas, we win the Senate.

Finally, Bollier is amazing - doctor, former Republican, brilliant, down to earth. She will make the Senate better.

Donate! https://t.co/rrkeH9a9eo
— Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 10/07/2020 - 12:36am

Biden leads by 8 points in Arizona over Trump, new poll shows https://t.co/DdaWCVE7Yk
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 2:01am

Joe Biden leads nationally with 62% among seniors and 58% among suburban women, according to the latest @NBCNews / WSJ poll.https://t.co/mFX84U7sDH
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 2:03am

a different kinda poll, and great news!

Sell-side analysts getting more comfortable with Biden as the bull case for stocks:https://t.co/SKwoz2H4Rn by @justinaknope
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 3:17am

57 - 41 in latest poll conducted after the debate. https://t.co/63FzNgmw6c
— Andrew Yang (@AndrewYang) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 10:17am

Here's: go ahead and risk dying if you want to, but quit trying to kill us--

Second reputable national poll two show Biden with 20+ point lead among seniors.

That’s going to be the story of this election: Pivotal Trump voting bloc in 2016 becoming part of the Biden base. https://t.co/eTP8BczAi4
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 10:55am

oh, and they know this, too (and BTW, Joe, keep in mind that Medicare Part D mostly sucks and is a major reason why so many seniors have been declaring bankruptcy):

At the last debate, President Trump claimed insulin is as cheap as water.

A new report shows that its quite expensive — eight times more expensive in the U.S. than other countries.https://t.co/UIddB2Q8gU pic.twitter.com/1AafRMmxmQ
— Sarah Kliff (@sarahkliff) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 11:02am

Joe's pretty well on a trajectory to win Pennsylvania:

There are 1% for Jo Jorgensen and 2% undecided. Amazing. https://t.co/nUDv5JSike
— Peter A. Shulman (@pashulman) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 11:17am

XY chromosome-deficient entities strike again https://t.co/E4UddZGUmJ
— Borzou Daragahi (@borzou) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 11:22am

And finds the enthusiasm gap, such as it ever was, has closed: 78% of Trump voters will vote for him enthusiastically, 77% of Biden voters. (Note alternative option is a vote "with reservations.") 58% of Biden voters say their vote is more for Biden, 39% more against Trump. https://t.co/aqoKmr5DI0
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 12:31pm

Frank Luntz retweets this, i.e. paranoia is called for:

Could pollsters make the same mistake in 2020? https://t.co/Dbq1UWgDDG
— Tom Haynes (@TomHaynesFox5) October 6, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/06/2020 - 1:51pm

They'll steal the # they need if it's close-ish.

by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 10/07/2020 - 1:46am

New Herald poll shows Trump support cratering after contracting coronavirus: 55-34 https://t.co/cP8eGHF6lf
— Lawrence O'Donnell (@Lawrence) October 7, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 10/07/2020 - 1:42am

And there, FINALLY revealed, is the SAME 1/3 of the country that has reliably polled as cuckaroo conservative MY WHOLE ADULT LIFE. So it took the coronavirus infection and reaction to FINALLY wrest that 8 or 9% away from giving Trump approval??? Nate Silver just wrote an essay mostly suggesting "it was the economy stupid" But I don't know if I buy that. They are still a mystery...

by artappraiser on Wed, 10/07/2020 - 2:26am

Maybe a large part of that group giving him job approval has been conservative/Republican-learning seniors? (Comes to mind they are much more known to answer polls! And they vote reliably in mid-terms, where GOP often fares better) Apparently he is really suddenly cratering with the senior demographic, see upthread and here again:

Is Trump losing his edge with seniors in Florida?

As Election Day approaches, retirees in the crucial battleground state are deserting the US president over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic https://t.co/Qdn5ucUgYH
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

In Florida, one in five residents is over 65. The state is a magnet for retirees from the US north-east and Midwest, who are drawn by warmer weather and lower taxes https://t.co/Qn3hZNSX0U pic.twitter.com/rKW3OAVyRI
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

Donald Trump himself calls Florida home after switching his primary residence from New York to Mar-a-Lago, his resort in Palm Beach. But polls show the president is haemorrhaging support among seniors — a shift that could prove decisive in November https://t.co/Qn3hZNSX0U pic.twitter.com/rqrgLP8NMx
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

A recent poll of likely voters in Florida, conducted by AARP, a lobbying group for older Americans, showed Joe Biden leading Trump by one point, on a 49-48 margin, with over 65s https://t.co/Qn3hZOaxSs pic.twitter.com/SZ069lH0IG
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

Many retirees in Florida have pointed to the president’s handling of coronavirus as a key reason for backing Joe Biden. Florida has recorded more than 716,000 Covid-19 cases and has the third highest count per 100,000 people in the US, according to FT data https://t.co/Qn3hZOaxSs pic.twitter.com/JalssO14Xc
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

Seniors are more likely to vote than their younger counterparts, and they have been seen as reliably Republican in recent elections. But opinion polls suggest that they are turning against Donald Trump in record numbers https://t.co/Qn3hZOaxSs pic.twitter.com/NqL0xqbANG
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

In presidential contests, Florida is a bellwether of national success: the victor in the state has gone on to win the White House in 13 out of the past 14 presidential elections.

Does Donald Trump have enough time to win Florida’s seniors back? https://t.co/Qn3hZNSX0U pic.twitter.com/93Mtu7fXXg
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) October 7, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 10/07/2020 - 2:45am

don't wanna die:

When you have this kind of turn out at The Villages for Biden, you know the FL polls are pretty accurate!! Side note, Pence is going to The Villages on October 10th to spread the Trump Virus. Vote early Florida! While you still can! #BidenHarris

pic.twitter.com/00M0gOiXvc
— Mystery Solvent (@MysterySolvent) October 7, 2020

A golf cart parade in The Villages, FL to hand deliver our ballots to the Board of Elections. Easily 400+ carts participated. These seniors are making sure their votes are COUNTED! pic.twitter.com/DAeloJ19xD
— ann toomey (@anntoomey1) October 7, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 10/07/2020 - 10:32pm

Drumpf's a senior all of a sudden, what a surprise!

me as a senior in high school talking to the freshmen whilst looking like a 7 year old: pic.twitter.com/S4R7s8CBgJ
— Siraj Hashmi (@SirajAHashmi) October 8, 2020

by artappraiser on Thu, 10/08/2020 - 4:20pm

Senior and coming for ya like a vampire, make you his forever:

Holy shit. Trump, who won't say if he's tested negative for coronavirus (so he either hasn't been tested or is still testing positive), says he plans to do a rally this Saturday night in Florida. pic.twitter.com/e6s5O5kEHY
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 9, 2020

by artappraiser on Thu, 10/08/2020 - 11:01pm

Some Nate Silver worthwhile opining in coupla tweets, on Biden getting good support from Independents, etc.

If I had to guess, I'd take the under on Biden's current 9.5 (!) point lead. But I don't know. The polls show Biden doing super duper well among independents and those propel his big leads despite pretty decent numbers for Republicans on party ID. https://t.co/Sc9sOeIb87
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2020

And is it *that* hard to believe that a winning a debate + the president catching COVID (along with a dozen other people in the WH) while obviously not taking enough precautions would move the polls by 2-3 points? That's a pretty small move, all things considered.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2020

The other thing I don't love about the obsession with partisan non-response bias is that if you're feeling too despondent about the election to answer a pollster's phone call, I'd also imagine you're less likely to turn out to vote.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 10/07/2020 - 8:05pm

Fox News national poll released a few hours before the vice presidential debate https://t.co/ttyUM5xaaG pic.twitter.com/jW6zgC86cK
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 8, 2020

by artappraiser on Thu, 10/08/2020 - 1:30am

Key @pewresearch chart: Biden leads Trump 52%-42% overall, but unprecedented partisan polarization between absentee/mail voters (39% of all), early in-person voters (21%) and Election Day voters (33%). Per survey, 7% still unsure which method they’ll use. pic.twitter.com/yvjOYjQFSG
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 9, 2020

by artappraiser on Fri, 10/09/2020 - 5:38am

This Pew Research Center survey has the largest sample size I’ve ever seen on an election poll – 10,543 registered voters.

But the result isn’t much different than other public polls: Biden 52%, Trump 42%. Lots of good data in here.https://t.co/EEpO7d6Q4t
— Kevin Robillard (@Robillard) October 9, 2020

by artappraiser on Fri, 10/09/2020 - 6:31am

By party registration

Republicans: Trump/LeanTrump 92%; Biden/LeanBiden 6%

Democrats: Trump/LeanTrump 3%; Biden/LeanBiden 96%

Independents: Trump/LeanTrump 35%; Biden/LeanBiden 53%

by artappraiser on Fri, 10/09/2020 - 6:51am

[POLLS] Biden bolsters lead over Trump in Michigan after first debate

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