American military aid should be limited, escalated gradually and used as a lever to increase the chances of a diplomatic settlement. If Idris makes headway, his forces should also receive sophisticated anti-tank weapons. Anti-aircraft missiles, however, should remain off the table. The risk of jihadists obtaining them is too high.
If Idris fails to make headway, Washington should decrease its support. Syria's rebels, not American troops, must change the military balance on the ground. If the opposition remains divided and dominated by jihadists, the United States should accept that it cannot succeed without an effective partner on the ground.
Meanwhile Marc Lynch thinks it is probably his worst foreign policy decision since taking office but in his conclusion, hopes he is wrong. As far as the reason it is happening, he does not think ally (nor Clinton) pressure as much as others, but points to a report by Adam Entous @ the WSJ: The most direct cause for the switch likely was Hezbollah's open entry in the fighting and fears that the fall of Qusair could lead to a rapid rebel collapse.
Want to make clear I post that only as a counterpoint, and I think both are extremely qualified to hear out.
I have a lot of respect for Rohde, having followed his reporting for many years. He is no warmonger nor is he a dilettante on this front. Like Lynch, he is not a political hack nor is he an ideologue.
This book distills eleven years of expert reporting for The New York Times, Reuters, and The Atlantic Monthly into a clarion call for change. An incisive look at the evolving nature of war, Rohde exposes how a dysfunctional Washington squandered billions on contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan, neglected its true allies in the war on terror and failed to employ its most potent nonmilitary weapons: American consumerism, technology, and investment. Rohde then surveys post-Arab Spring Tunisia, Turkey, and Egypt, and finds a yearning for American technology, trade, and education. He argues that only Muslim moderates, not Americans, can eradicate militancy. For readers of Steve Coll, Tom Ricks, and Ahmed Rashid, Beyond War shows how the failed American effort to back moderate Muslims since 9/11 can be salvaged.
Add to this that he was the victim of an 8-month-long kidnapping by the Talilban, that he does not fear the possible serious blowback of arming those rebels is something to really consider. He is surely taking into account hat there are so many Sunni jihadis from all over in their midst, but still feels it is the best option.
P.S. Over at The Atlantic, in the last week he published two pieces on the security state, and did an interesting piece May 17 on how Obama has contributed to his own "aura of scandal" by being "aloof and disengaged."
The Palestinian militant group Hamas on Monday urged Lebanon's Hezbollah militia to withdraw its fighters from Syria and accused it of stoking sectarian tensions, leveling unprecedented public criticism against a former ally. [....]
Hamas, a Sunni movement, on Monday criticized Hezbollah over its growing role in the Syria conflict. In a statement, Hamas called on Hezbollah to "withdraw its forces from Syria and keep its weapons directed at the Zionist enemy (Israel)." Hamas also said that sending forces to Syria "contributed to the sectarian polarization in the region."
Hamas leaders left Syria last year to protest Assad's crackdown on fellow Sunnis. Since then, Hamas has drifted away from Iran and moved closer to the region's Sunni camp led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, though it has not formally cut ties with Tehran.
Hamas and Hezbollah played important roles in Iran's attempt to set up heavily armed proxies on opposite sides of Israel [....]
DUBAI — Gulf Arab states are preparing to launch a series of measures against Hezbollah’s interests in the region. The move is in retaliation for the Lebanese Shi’ite militant group’s growing military involvement in Syria.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, recently announced it would begin imposing sanctions against Hezbollah associates.
Officials said the measures will target suspected affiliates’ “residency permits and financial and commercial dealings.” [....]
Comments
Meanwhile Marc Lynch thinks it is probably his worst foreign policy decision since taking office but in his conclusion, hopes he is wrong. As far as the reason it is happening, he does not think ally (nor Clinton) pressure as much as others, but points to a report by Adam Entous @ the WSJ: The most direct cause for the switch likely was Hezbollah's open entry in the fighting and fears that the fall of Qusair could lead to a rapid rebel collapse.
by artappraiser on Mon, 06/17/2013 - 10:04am
Want to make clear I post that only as a counterpoint, and I think both are extremely qualified to hear out.
I have a lot of respect for Rohde, having followed his reporting for many years. He is no warmonger nor is he a dilettante on this front. Like Lynch, he is not a political hack nor is he an ideologue.
Here's the Amazon blurb for his April 2013 book Beyond War: Reimagining American Influence in a New Middle East:
Add to this that he was the victim of an 8-month-long kidnapping by the Talilban, that he does not fear the possible serious blowback of arming those rebels is something to really consider. He is surely taking into account hat there are so many Sunni jihadis from all over in their midst, but still feels it is the best option.
P.S. Over at The Atlantic, in the last week he published two pieces on the security state, and did an interesting piece May 17 on how Obama has contributed to his own "aura of scandal" by being "aloof and disengaged."
by artappraiser on Mon, 06/17/2013 - 10:37am
by artappraiser on Mon, 06/17/2013 - 7:34pm
by artappraiser on Mon, 06/17/2013 - 7:38pm