Surprise Erdogan/Trump deal on Syria

By artappraiser on Sun, 10/06/2019 - 11:15pm |

BREAKING: In an extraordinary Sunday night statement, the White House announces that the US "will no longer be in the immediate area" of Northern Syria, allow Turkey to launch an invasion in the region and give Turkey responsibility for captured ISIS fighters in the area. pic.twitter.com/Ytu8t3BLUg
— NBC News (@NBCNews) October 7, 2019

URL:

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1181043719497293824

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David Ignatius of WaPo:

President Trump is about to make major, consequential mistake in Syria. Sources say US is tonight informing its Syrian Kurdish allies that US is withdrawing from positions on Turkish border, abandoning so-called “security mechanism,” to allow an invasion by Turkish forces...
— David Ignatius (@IgnatiusPost) October 7, 2019

...This comes after we asked the SDF to dismantle all obstacles and pull back from the border, in the promise that this would stop a Turkish intervention. In fact, it appears to have enabled one....
— David Ignatius (@IgnatiusPost) October 7, 2019

...In addition to abandoning allies, Trump is opening way for Turkish power grab in NE Syria that is a guarantee of future bloodshed and instability. The Syria mission was a rare success for US military power in the Mideast—now being squandered to appease Erdogan’s ambitions.
— David Ignatius (@IgnatiusPost) October 7, 2019

by artappraiser on Sun, 10/06/2019 - 11:21pm

The Kurdish SDF in Northern Syria on what they think of US moving aside to let Turkey invade. https://t.co/Y7EqFcSICW
— paul mcleary (@paulmcleary) October 7, 2019

continues as a thread of several tweets @cmoc_sdf

by artappraiser on Sun, 10/06/2019 - 11:26pm

It’s one thing that the US is pulling out and refusing to protect its Kurdish allies from an imminent Turkish offensive. But it’s a whole other level of betrayal given that the US *asked* the Kurds to remove the fortifications they had installed along the Turkish border: https://t.co/I09pWCBbPn
— Rukmini Callimachi (@rcallimachi) October 7, 2019

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 11:18am

These are the unhinged ramblings of a mad “man.” Republicans, are you going to let him destroy what little is left of America’s reputation around the world? Is there no bridge too far? How many lives will you let him ruin while you all cower in your Congressional corners? pic.twitter.com/mvTghwNjoi
— Glenn Kirschner (@glennkirschner2) October 7, 2019

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 11:53am

This is a moment in which it would have been useful for Trump if he'd 1) divested from his business in Turkey and 2) not coddled Erdogan so obviously. https://t.co/xYmtcTmjc0
— Philip Bump (@pbump) October 7, 2019

The threat to Turkey comes a day after a US military decision that Turkey wanted. https://t.co/u4WkXakHAB
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 7, 2019

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 12:00pm

The former top US official in the war on ISIS slams Trumps announcement #Turkey #Syria #Kurds https://t.co/qMlkEGQ40N
— Sophie McNeill (@Sophiemcneill) October 7, 2019

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 12:01pm

Proof he's a stable genius at: absolutely nothing. Could lose a big part of the right-wing Christian fan base for pulling out of a religious war:

Pat Robertson: Trump Will Lose His ‘Mandate of Heaven’ if He Pulls Out of Syria

The ultra-conservative televangelist on Monday joined a growing chorus of Republican critics of Trump’s decision on Syria.

@ DailyBeast.com, Oct. 7

More and more it's looking like he puts ego strokes from dictator-types over "ratings" with the fans. Clearly doesn't consider the benefits to the latter when he makes decisions. Goes by seat of pants and then spins delusions about what he did later if it doesn't work out with the fans.

[Later edit to correct typo}

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 9:17pm

Psst, Pat: 30 pieces of silver:

Guess who sponsored a conference at Trump Hotel in DC this year.

He also licenses Trump Towers Istanbul, not Constantinople. (Even Trump Tower "New York" was once New Amsterdam. Why they changed it, I can’t say. People just liked it better that way.)https://t.co/TfydNrzSyT
— Walter Shaub (@waltshaub) October 7, 2019

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 7:14pm

Wow. Leading Israeli politician says regarding Kurds, Israel will never put its security in the hands of the US. https://t.co/sIMZXlXwLK
— Shayna Estulin (@ShaynaEstulin) October 7, 2019

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 7:17pm

I wonder if Trump tomorrow will try to make Rick Perry take the blame for the Syria situation
— Roland Scahill (@rolandscahill) October 7, 2019

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 7:18pm

Now this sounds to me like the Pentagon was blindsided and raised alarms and someone in the admin., the ubiquitous "senior administration official", is trying to walk it back and spin it in a presser while not allowing reporters to name him/her:

Military Times - US Withdrawal in Syria is Only a Small Number of Special Operators Says Trump Administration https://t.co/iANXwxn3rs
— Small Wars Journal (@smallwars) October 7, 2019

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 7:29pm

Yup, extensive evidence: @ 'POTUS went rogue': Trump's Syria move blindsides national security leaders

The White House announcement bucked views by top officials that Turkey's threat of an incursion against the Kurds was a bluff.

By Wesley Morgan @ Politico.com, Updated: 10/07/2019 06:33 PM EDT Daniel Lippman and Quint Forgey contributed to this report.

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 11:44pm

Whatever the opposite of 3-D political chess is, that’s what Trump just did

Analysis by Philip Bump @ WashingtonPost.com, Oct. 7, 2:35 pm

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) might have been forgiven if he assumed that his days serving as President Trump’s punching bag were over. The senator who was once regularly derided by Trump as a loser has come to be one of Trump’s most vocal allies and a regular golf-course companion.

So Trump’s announcement late Sunday that he was giving Turkey a free hand in northern Syria must have come as a surprise. When Trump first floated removing U.S. forces from Syria at the end of last year, Graham specifically raised concerns about the fate of northern Syria’s Kurdish population as a reason to move slowly. The Sunday announcement centered on a policy that may put that population at significant risk.

Graham derided Trump’s decision in stark terms on Monday, both on Twitter and on the Fox News program “Fox and Friends" (meaning it is likely that Trump saw what Graham said). The announcement, Graham said, is “just unnerving to its core.” That’s an interesting word choice, “unnerving,” suggesting a shaken confidence. Suggesting a potential shift, even if subtle, in how Graham views the Trump presidency.

Graham wasn’t alone in expressing consternation. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) echoed Graham’s concerns explicitly. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) called it a “grave mistake” with far-ranging implications. Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) warned of a “slaughter” of Kurds and expressed hope that Trump would reconsider. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) called it a “terribly unwise decision.” [....]

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 7:39pm

NYTimes' current headline: As Trump Throws Syria Policy Into Turmoil, the G.O.P. Rebels
A vow to withdraw from the Middle East raised fears that President Trump was giving Turkey the go-ahead to move against America’s Kurdish allies.
The president sought to tamp down those concerns, but Senator Mitch McConnell said his plan would help Russia, Iran and the Islamic State.

By Peter Baker & Lara Jakes, published 1h ago

They've also published this editorial:

The Editorial Board: Does Donald Trump Know What His Syria Policy Is?
Another round of contradictory signals from the White House shakes allies’ trust and puts lives at risk.

30m ago

and this: ‘You Are Leaving Us Alone’: Kurds Lash Out at U.S.
A decline in support could leave America’s Kurdish allies vulnerable not only to Turkey, but to attacks by ISIS, analysts said.

By Ben Hubbard, 1h ago

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 9:04pm

Politico current headline: Congress pressures Trump to back down on Syria 'betrayal'

The gears are already turning in the Republican-controlled Senate to force Trump to reverse himself

By Burgess Everett, Updated: 10/07/2019 05:17 PM EDT

[....] Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is reminding Trump of supermajorities supporting a U.S. presence in Syria. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is threatening sanctions against Turkey in partnership with Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). And a bipartisan pair of Senate Foreign Relations Committee members are demanding administration officials testify before Congress.

"The president’s decision to abandon our Kurdish allies in Northern Syria in the face of an assault by Turkey is a betrayal that will have grave humanitarian and national security consequences," said Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). "We will be working with committee leadership to assure that the administration appears before the committee as soon as possible."

The Republican Senate has already shown a willingness to confront Trump on Syria and other foreign policy matters, and the gears are quickly turning in Congress to force Trump to back down.

Graham said Monday he will put forward a Senate resolution asking Trump to change course, predicting it “will receive strong bipartisan support.” In February, 70 senators supported a nonbinding amendment backing U.S. operations in both Syria and Afghanistan.

Lawmakers will also have multiple chances to weigh in on Trump’s foreign policy in the coming weeks and months, as Congress must pass its annual defense legislation as well as spending bills to fund the government.

In a rare statement chiding Trump, McConnell referenced the amendment adopted earlier this year, noting “the conditions that produced that bipartisan vote still exist today.” [....]

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/07/2019 - 9:14pm

Mitt Romney re-tweets Lindsey Graham:

The President’s decision to abandon our Kurd allies in the face of an assault by Turkey is a betrayal. It says that America is an unreliable ally; it facilitates ISIS resurgence; and it presages another humanitarian disaster. https://t.co/Tu8ARa8Pmp
— Senator Mitt Romney (@SenatorRomney) October 7, 2019

Chris Murphy & Mitt Romney statement tweeted by Romney:

Barring a reversal of this decision, the Administration must come before Congress and explain how betraying an ally and ceding influence to terrorists and adversaries is not disastrous for our national security interests. My statement with @ChrisMurphyCT→ https://t.co/LF4TkowJZC
— Senator Mitt Romney (@SenatorRomney) October 7, 2019

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/08/2019 - 12:13am

The SDF suffered thousands of casualties in the Raqqa battle. Not a single American life was lost. Trump later expanded the operation down the ERV. He touts these operations in political rallies but without apparent thought as to who did the fighting and dying.
— Brett McGurk (@brett_mcgurk) October 7, 2019

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/08/2019 - 12:34am

I lean more toward Camerer's interpretation over Krugman's in this twitter exchange:

He desperately wants to be liked (1), is innumerate (2 can’t count), and ignores history (3).
Will then happily agree (1) to giant concessions, thinks they’re small (2), surprised people are shocked how dramatic events are (3)

He is simple, not complicated https://t.co/iADBDpoey5
— Colin Camerer (@CFCamerer) October 8, 2019

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/08/2019 - 2:37am

related, his "Art of The Deal" ghost writer, last week:

For years I believed Trump knew when he was lying. Now I believe he is simply blinded by his rage.
— Tony Schwartz (@tonyschwartz) October 3, 2019

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/08/2019 - 2:43am

He's a master of post-hoc rationalization & declaration of victory.

He's still in that "Mommy, I did a poopy - I be best" stage.

by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 10/08/2019 - 2:58am

He is simple, not complicated

That's the way I see it. He's not even playing chess. He's clueless. He didn't consider the pieces on the board when he made his move. Because he doesn't have a clear picture of what pieces are on the board. He didn't consider how his move would affect Assad and Syria, Iran, Russia, Turkey. There was no analysis of the possible scenarios of how it might play out. There was no if I do this then they do that etc. Because he has no idea what any of the other players might do. He moves willy nilly without any deep thought or sophistication.

by ocean-kat on Tue, 10/08/2019 - 7:24am

Yeah, my comment implied he just gives rationalizations after he's done something - not one, but 3-5 until one of them seems to succeed.

by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 10/08/2019 - 7:57am

Surprise Erdogan/Trump deal on Syria

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