The violence, which will resonate for weeks, months or even years around this fragile and bitterly divided former Soviet republic of 46 million, exposed the impotence, in this dispute, of the United States and the European Union, which had engaged in a week of fruitless efforts to mediate a peaceful settlement. It also shredded doubts about the influential reach of Russia, which had portrayed the protesters as American-backed “terrorists” and, in thinly coded messages from the Kremlin, urged Mr. Yanukovych to crack down.
Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. telephoned Mr. Yanukovych to “express grave concern regarding the crisis on the streets” of Kiev, and urged him “to pull back government forces and to exercise maximum restraint,” the vice president’s office said in a statement.
A short while ago, the state security service claimed it's nationwide and that the protestors have seized a lot of guns and ammunition in the last day:
In a sign of the potential for increased violence, Right Sector, one of the most militarised protest groups, urged citizens with guns to come to the encampment. It said it had “confirmed” information that authorities would seek to clear the square using live ammunition and armoured military vehicles.
“In connection with this, we call upon all owners of guns to gather in Maidan [Independence Square] and form a unit to protect the people from those serving this criminal regime,” the group said.
[....] Bosnia and Herzegovina is once more torn by strife, but this time it is different. Frustrated with corruption, political inaction, unpaid wages and youth unemployment around 60 percent, workers started a protest in the northern town of Tuzla on Feb. 4. Within days, the unrest had spread nationwide. By the time I arrived in Sarajevo a week later, scores of government buildings had been set on fire.
Around the country, protesters are not just occupying streets and public squares but organizing plenums to create alternative governments. In Sarajevo, one such assembly was taking place at the youth center, which before the wars of the 1990s was one of the most popular Western-style clubs in Yugoslavia. During the war it was hit by artillery shells and caught fire.
Now I watched as more than 1,000 people — mothers without a job, former soldiers, professors, students, desperate unpaid workers — gathered here to discuss the future of the country.
In the best tradition of direct democracy, after hours of discussion, the participants agreed to set up a completely new government, to curtail the salaries and benefits of politicians, and rein in the privatization process, which many in this country consider hopelessly corrupt.
The same day, the plenum in Tuzla forced the local government to fulfill one of its demands: eliminating the practice of paying “white bread,” or salaries of politicians after they leave office — savings of some $700,000 a year, enough to cover about 130 average annual pensions.
Aside from these small but important victories, the people’s assemblies have succeeded in what the international community and the awkward, tripartite government it imposed failed to do over the last 20 years — namely, overcoming the rifts among the country’s Croats, Serbs and Bosnians that have haunted it since the end of the war.
During the first day of protests in Sarajevo, one young man, among 50 others, had been pushed into the river by the police. A few days later, I watched as he appeared with a broken leg in front of the plenum. “I am a Catholic, I am a Jew, I am a Muslim, I am all the citizens of this country,” he said [....]
Something I have seen suggested makes sense as a possible development in the near future.
Putin considers Ukraine to be within Russia's sphere of influence and intends to keep it there but in the near past he has been restricted in action by his very strong interest in making the Olympic games a success. If he were to roll in the tanks in a few days from now I am sure that he would get a stern talking to.
There is plenty of reason to believe that the U.S. has been encouraging the protesters and also supporting some of them monetarily, at least. There is little reason that I can see to believe that we will do more than talk tough if Putin thumps Kiev with an iron fist, but the tough talk will harden the growing tension between Russia and us.
There seem to be plenty who have missed them as our old enemy.
There is plenty of reason to believe that the U.S. has been encouraging the protesters and also supporting some of them monetarily, at least.
I have read quite different than that, almost the opposite, and in quantity from a wide variety of sources, including complaints like the U.S. has been sitting on its laissez-faire ass, dithering, not wanting to get involved because it's a hornet's nest, saying it's the E.U.'s problem, etc. In particular, there was one article (I wish I could remember where, but I can't) that explained in detail that the Obama administration was very concerned about it all but was at a total loss about what to do. That one really rang true with me as far as Obama administration foreign policy in general. Beware the eleventy-dimension chess belief, it's not real, never was.
The problem is we only ever seem to have just a few options, and none of them seem to be very good. And whichever one we choose, including keeping our nose clean, we get lambasted for it.
Ultimately, there's only so much influence we have on others. At the height of our influence, Russia crushed Hungary and Czechoslovakia. I guess we kept South Korea free, but Vietnam was a miserable failure.
Mounting diplomatic, humanitarian, and sanctions efforts seem to be our best bets. Syria is a pretty good example of our quandary. We were criticized for not going in early. Then we were criticized for giving arms and support to the rebels. Then we were criticized for the red line (both setting it and not following through on it) and possible bombing. Then we were criticized for inducing Russia to disarm its ally's chemical weapons. Now, again, we've stepped up humanitarian aid to the refugees, but...
WASHINGTON - U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has been unable to get anyone on the phone at Ukraine's defense ministry over the past several days as violence flared and Kiev named a new head of the armed forces general staff, the Pentagon said on Thursday.
"We haven't been able to connect with anybody from the Defense Ministry there in Ukraine," spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby told a Pentagon news briefing. "Here in the Pentagon, we've been trying to (connect with them) pretty diligently this whole week."
Kirby said he was also unaware of any successful military-to-military contacts between United States and Ukraine, and acknowledged it is usually not so difficult for Hagel to get
a foreign counterpart on the phone. Hagel and the Ukrainian defense minister spoke in December, Kirby noted. "I'd say it's pretty unusual," he said [....]
As anyone who has suffered the indignity of having his calls screened by someone with caller ID knows, you gotta use one of those "spoofing" programs, or borrow a "clean phone". I suggest Hagel use one of those programs that can imitate the number from the best Take-Out Pyrogi restaurant in Kiev, and see if he can't get better results...
While the authorities blocked trains coming to Kiev from the anti-Yanukovych west, protesters in the east lay down on railway tracks to prevent the government transporting military reinforcements to the capital. Crimea, ardently pro-Russian if part of Ukraine, issued threats of secession should the country go into freefall. Reports from the west spoke of protesters ransacking military and police headquarters and seizing weapons, while the security services were said to be shredding documents in scenes that recalled the anti-communist revolutions of 1989 in Romania or East Germany.
But the authorities were willing to hit back hard by bringing in the army. "Military servants of the armed forces might be used in anti-terrorist operations on the territory of Ukraine," a defence ministry statement warned.
The article, by Ian Traynor in Kiev, includes boots-on-the-ground coverage:
Guardian reporters saw 21 corpses on Independence Square, the crucible of the mass rebellion against Yanukovych, and in a nearby hotel converted into a makeshift field hospital. But the full death toll was impossible to verify: Oleh Musiy, head doctor for the opposition movement, said 70 protesters died on Thursday, bringing the death toll in 72 hours to about 100. The health ministry said 67 people had been killed and 562 wounded since Tuesday. The interior ministry said three police were killed on Thursday
[....]
The battle erupted as dawn broke on Thursday when radical street fighters among the protesters attacked and broke through the police lines [....]
Protesters ducked behind trees and ran for cover as police opened automatic gunfire. But by mid-morning the city centre was firmly in the hands of the opposition [....]
"In Focus with Alan Taylor" @ The Atlantic has put together a selection of 37 wire photos: Kiev Truce Shattered, Dozens Killed, Feb. 20. (Presented on one page as usual.) Some are quite jaw dropping.
[....] America's obsession with Putin, however, does not explain the complex realities fueling the uprising in Ukraine, or the uneasy relationship between Putin and Yanukovich. [....]
[....] "Yanukovich has played Putin against Europe and the United States quite masterfully. So there is no love lost between them and no trust there," says Eugene Rumer who, until earlier this month, served as U.S. national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the CIA. He's now director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
"The quality of the discussion here in Washington has really been appalling," he adds. "A lot more has been said about Russia and Russia's role ... but it ignores the fact that Ukraine has had an independent life for the last 25 years and this crisis is really a domestic political crisis in Ukraine. Not that the Russians haven't helped, but it is a Ukrainian domestic political crisis." [....]
Yanukovich, however, "has never been Russia's man," says Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. "I think it's a myth. He's been a very difficult partner for Russia, a very unreliable partner, someone who let the Russians down on many occasions. Someone absolutely not to be trusted."
Yanukovich's only goal is to stay in power and to protect his wealth and the wealth of his family, says Trenin. "With Yanukovich vacillating between Russia and Europe and always having his own private interests in mind, it's mind-boggling. So the Russians have long given up on Yanukovich." [....]
Having observed the Russian regime for a long time, I finally decided to refer to Leon Festinger’s theory of cognitive dissonance. He describes the mental stress and discomfort experienced by an individual who holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values at the same time.
I believe that the theory aptly describes the current policies and pronouncements of the Russian regime, which is simultaneously making conflicting statements and moving in opposite directions. Let me illustrate my point with some comments on the recent Kommersantarticle written by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The article, published on February 13, 2014, is titled “As the EU and the United States See It, the ‘Free’ Choice Has Already Been Made for the Ukrainians.” Many interpreted the article as Russia’s ultimatum to the West to leave Ukraine alone.
Let us find some instances of cognitive dissonance in the article [....]
I don't know anything about the author of this piece except that he is considered to be a conspiracy theorist by some/many. That said, I think he has his facts right concerning the arc of Nuland's career, who she is intimately related to, and what political philosophy she ascribes to. I don't think it takes being crazy to believe she has been encouraging the revolt in Ukaine. I think the speech in the video was doing just that but when that much is public I also suspect a lot more substantive meddling that we do not know of yet.
I simply see it as a desire of the U.S. to promote that whatever happens in the Ukraine ends up working out as relative stability, without more idiots in charge.
I see it as very consistent with what the Obama administration has done with other revolutions, like Egypt and Syria: as little as possible, with some ineptness at times. Almost everywhere this administration seems to care about promoting stability so that things can work out slowly for themselves over anything else. It's more like: we really really want to avoid having to meddle. You can certainly call "as little as possible" meddling if you wish. But I've got to say that I think that's an inaccurate view of their foreign policy, one that presumes this administration is no different from the last one, perhaps still some residual Bush derangement syndrome in thinking that the Obama administration is involved in ideological "meddling," Ever wonder why people like John McCain don't agree that that is the case?
They did meddle in Libya and Syria(the meddling in Syria was more limited than that in Libya), but in Egypt and Tunisia they pretty much left it to the inhabitants to handle. Someone at EOZ said that Obama overthrew Mubarak, but I think that is false.
by Aaron Carine (not verified) on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 11:02am
Libya was on the condition that other countries do all the heavy lifting, with us finally agreeing that if they did so, we would help out. I recall his speech announcing participation as a "no brainer" that he felt there was little risk involved. (No boots on ground, no boots on ground, the Kosovo thing...) And that it took a while for us to decide to participate, some arm twisting. That is a far cry from trying to remake the world in the image of the U.S. It is basically quite opposite. I think understanding this is important, it is the basis of GOP hawk dissatisfaction with him, and they have it right what they see. Neo-liberals who see him not dong the American exceptionalism thing have it right. Lefties who consider him Republican lite on foreign policy have it wrong.
A point on Syria. He made the red line threat. He backtracked on it the moment he got an out. That's not a meddlin' man, that's a mistake. A mistake that will live on in infamy for those who believe in "U.S.A # 1" might and power and standing behind your threats.
P.S. For all national politicians and administration representatives, we shouldn't forget that foreign policy is sometimes domestic politics via lobbying groups of American citizens of various heritages. I thought of this right away with Lulu's video link, it's was a speech to the U.S. Ukraine Foundation. That's like giving a speech to AIPAC. What someone says to AIPAC or any similar organization is usually spun to make them happy and one must be careful not to take it as whole truth about actual policy. I must admit I didn't listen to it, I don't think that would be a wise use of time in this case, listening to spin for a lobbying group, when I am still trying to figure out the actual situation.
P.S. For all national politicians and administration representatives, we shouldn't forget that foreign policy is sometimes domestic politics via lobbying groups of American citizens of various heritages.
Agreed, but in this case I very much doubt the speech was made as a play for the American Ukraine vote.
I thought of this right away with Lulu's video link, it's was a speech to the U.S. Ukraine Foundation. That's like giving a speech to AIPAC. What someone says to AIPAC or any similar organization is usually spun to make them happy and one must be careful not to take it as whole truth about actual policy.
I think listening to a leader's speech before a group that has a particular agenda regarding the issue at hand can be very helpful but I agree that one person's speech cannot always be taken as their government actuall and total position. I think your comparison to a speech at AIPAC by an American politician is particularly apt and I thought of it myself but was hesitant to make it for fear of radically diverting the conversation.
Unlike AIPAC, I have not been able to find out much about The US Ukraine Foundation's lobbying goals but I assume they are aligned with one side or the other in the deeply divided positions held by the various groups whithin Ukraine as made clear by the maps recently posted here and in other ways.
Among other things, Nuland's speech is obviously intended to show general alignment with USUF's position and, like a US official's speech before AIPAC, it is intended to send a message to many people and groups beyond the ones in the room. So, it is definitely taking a side but in this case not honestly, IMO.
Again, ignoring the strong divisions of sentiment in Ukraine, Nuland talks as if the entire county's wishes were in alignment with a desire to overthrow of the current government and a move towards the EU and away from Russia. At one point she actually describes peaceful demonstrators, the only kind of demonstrator she acknowledges to exist, as sitting around singing hymns of peace when the authorities opened fire on them. I believe that reading a transcript would reveal her strong bias and willingness, actually I mean her intention, to misrepresent the situation, but listening would make it even more obvious.
Nuland very strongly and very explicitly says that it is the hope and intention to bring Ukraine towards the West and away from Russia. Fair enough if that is a legitimate policy and if the reasons to do so are honestly expressed BUT that expression, by itself when done by the U.S, is powerful enough to be considered meddling in the internal and local affairs of a foreign government. Handing out cookies to the protesters during a potentially explosive standoff with their government as they confront that government is itself meddling which would be strongly condemned and probably halted if done by a foreign ambassador hostile to our government and done in front of the White House. It is messaging of support for various groups who are in some cases sharply divided among themselves but it is obviously not all the support that has been offered or implied.
Following your third link above and also other articles at the same place make it clear that the Ukraine was made an offer by the West that it could not accept for political reasons and because of the many strings attached. If that is a fair conclusion then I think it is fair to believe that the offer was made with that understanding.
Results of the political mechanizations play out among the population but the policies originate among small groups. I seriously doubt that the weight of the citizenry of the EU strongly favor bringing in Ukraine to the EU and I doubt doing so at any time in the near future would help stabilize anything.
If I wasn't clear, I think something like the leaked audio of what she said on the phone to Ambassador Pyatt gives a better picture of what is going on than a formal speech to a lobby that has to be unspun and decoded to get at the truth.
That comports with my belief that listening to the speech tells more about attitude than does just reading a transcription. Both your example of her 'fuck the EU' comment and her delivery of the speech convince me that she has an attitude I do not like, I cannot support, and which I think is ultimately harmful to our interests. BUT, I found a transcription which was not hard, I just hadn't thought to look.
I may get unlazy enough to listen or try to read the speeches of other participants sometime later.
One thing that encourages blogging by halfway informed people like myself is that there is always someone somewhere with some amount of established credence [with at least one or two people] that takes what is at least approximately the same position. How's that for a boatload of equivocation in one sentence?
American neocons helped destabilize Ukraine and engineer the overthrow of its elected government, a “regime change” on Russia’s western border. But the coup – and the neo-Nazi militias at the forefront – also reveal divisions within the Obama administration, reports Robert Parry.
Thus, the Ukrainian coup could become the latest neocon-initiated “regime change” that ousted a target government but failed to take into account who would fill the void.
Well, in my humble opinion, making war in Libya and threatening to make war in Syria was full on, Scooby Doo meddling, since those governments weren't threatening us.
Top GOP senator to Obama: Send
'clear message' to Putin on Ukraine
TOP SENATE REPUBLICAN SAYS President Obama should tell Russian President Vladimir Putin to stay out of Ukraine's political revolution, renewing criticism about the president's foreign policy and his negotiations with the powerful Russian leader.
Comments
The Guardian live blog:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/18/ukraine-police-storm-kiev-p...
The Guardian pictures:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2014/feb/18/ukraine-protests-re...
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/18/2014 - 9:39pm
From this mornings NYTs:
by Bruce Levine on Wed, 02/19/2014 - 1:34am
A short while ago, the state security service claimed it's nationwide and that the protestors have seized a lot of guns and ammunition in the last day:
New York Times
Guardian live blog
RT
And I found this "call to arms" quoted in yesterday's Financial Times:
by artappraiser on Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:47am
Apparently, with few paying attention, a sort of revolution of despair has been happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well, with different results:
by artappraiser on Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:58am
Something I have seen suggested makes sense as a possible development in the near future.
Putin considers Ukraine to be within Russia's sphere of influence and intends to keep it there but in the near past he has been restricted in action by his very strong interest in making the Olympic games a success. If he were to roll in the tanks in a few days from now I am sure that he would get a stern talking to.
There is plenty of reason to believe that the U.S. has been encouraging the protesters and also supporting some of them monetarily, at least. There is little reason that I can see to believe that we will do more than talk tough if Putin thumps Kiev with an iron fist, but the tough talk will harden the growing tension between Russia and us.
There seem to be plenty who have missed them as our old enemy.
by A Guy Called LULU on Wed, 02/19/2014 - 12:33pm
There is plenty of reason to believe that the U.S. has been encouraging the protesters and also supporting some of them monetarily, at least.
I have read quite different than that, almost the opposite, and in quantity from a wide variety of sources, including complaints like the U.S. has been sitting on its laissez-faire ass, dithering, not wanting to get involved because it's a hornet's nest, saying it's the E.U.'s problem, etc. In particular, there was one article (I wish I could remember where, but I can't) that explained in detail that the Obama administration was very concerned about it all but was at a total loss about what to do. That one really rang true with me as far as Obama administration foreign policy in general. Beware the eleventy-dimension chess belief, it's not real, never was.
by artappraiser on Wed, 02/19/2014 - 1:02pm
What would anyone have us do except in the soft diplomacy vein?
by Peter Schwartz on Thu, 02/20/2014 - 7:21pm
We could draw lines in the sand? Where is the UN?
by Resistance on Thu, 02/20/2014 - 8:11pm
The problem is we only ever seem to have just a few options, and none of them seem to be very good. And whichever one we choose, including keeping our nose clean, we get lambasted for it.
Ultimately, there's only so much influence we have on others. At the height of our influence, Russia crushed Hungary and Czechoslovakia. I guess we kept South Korea free, but Vietnam was a miserable failure.
Mounting diplomatic, humanitarian, and sanctions efforts seem to be our best bets. Syria is a pretty good example of our quandary. We were criticized for not going in early. Then we were criticized for giving arms and support to the rebels. Then we were criticized for the red line (both setting it and not following through on it) and possible bombing. Then we were criticized for inducing Russia to disarm its ally's chemical weapons. Now, again, we've stepped up humanitarian aid to the refugees, but...
by Peter Schwartz on Thu, 02/20/2014 - 8:47pm
It's sad, that we can only observe another slaughter, being perpetrated by Putin's puppets.
by Resistance on Thu, 02/20/2014 - 11:01pm
Truce declared in bloodied Ukraine, but will it last through talks?
By Nick Paton Walsh. Greg Botelho and Victoria Butenko, CNN, updated 9:20 PM EST, Wed February 19, 2014
U.S. talks tough, but options limited in Ukraine
By Elise Labott and Tom Cohen, CNN, updated 9:43 PM EST, Wed February 19, 2014
by artappraiser on Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:26pm
Like a scene in an avant-garde movie about some long ago revolution, or perhaps Madame Defarge's knitting:
Ukraine violence: Bagpiper plays on despite clashes
BBC News, 19 Feb., 2014
28 sec. video [....] Footage shows a lone bagpiper playing amid yesterday's clashes.
by artappraiser on Wed, 02/19/2014 - 11:39pm
Today's NYT editorial includes an excellent concise summary of the situation to date:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/20/opinion/ukraines-deadly-turn.html
by artappraiser on Thu, 02/20/2014 - 12:00pm
by artappraiser on Thu, 02/20/2014 - 6:32pm
As anyone who has suffered the indignity of having his calls screened by someone with caller ID knows, you gotta use one of those "spoofing" programs, or borrow a "clean phone". I suggest Hagel use one of those programs that can imitate the number from the best Take-Out Pyrogi restaurant in Kiev, and see if he can't get better results...
by jollyroger on Thu, 02/20/2014 - 6:50pm
That would be too simple, You would think the NSA knows the Hospital # "We have an urgent message from Doctor (fill in the blank)" Please call
by Resistance on Thu, 02/20/2014 - 7:12pm
Hey Chuck, The Guardian says Thurs. that they are busy preparing to do what you were planning to ask them not to do:
The article, by Ian Traynor in Kiev, includes boots-on-the-ground coverage:
by artappraiser on Thu, 02/20/2014 - 9:00pm
"In Focus with Alan Taylor" @ The Atlantic has put together a selection of 37 wire photos: Kiev Truce Shattered, Dozens Killed, Feb. 20. (Presented on one page as usual.) Some are quite jaw dropping.
by artappraiser on Thu, 02/20/2014 - 9:18pm
by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2014 - 11:13pm
by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2014 - 11:53pm
Shevtsova is the shizzle...(groan...)
by jollyroger on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 12:07am
Arta, I remember that videos are tough for you but this one might be worth it. It is Victoria Nuland. the one hit wonder, speaking on Dec. 13, 2013.
U.S. Ukraine Foundation Presents:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2y0y-JUsPTU#t=81
by A Guy Called LULU on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 12:29am
I don't know anything about the author of this piece except that he is considered to be a conspiracy theorist by some/many. That said, I think he has his facts right concerning the arc of Nuland's career, who she is intimately related to, and what political philosophy she ascribes to. I don't think it takes being crazy to believe she has been encouraging the revolt in Ukaine. I think the speech in the video was doing just that but when that much is public I also suspect a lot more substantive meddling that we do not know of yet.
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2013/12/18/meet-neocon-doughnut-do...
by A Guy Called LULU on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 1:23am
If she's a neo-con, she's one the GOP didn't want as Asst. Sec. of State:
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/05/24/fox-smears-state-department-offi...
Everything you need to know that could be called "meddling" in the Ukraine is here, especially if you read the footnoted sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland#2014_Nuland.27s_obscene_ref...
I simply see it as a desire of the U.S. to promote that whatever happens in the Ukraine ends up working out as relative stability, without more idiots in charge.
The State Dept. is not the CIA. Ukraine is financially broke, you know. It's problems are not going away soon and they want cash from somebody and the Obama administration would rather see they get it from the IMF then the "Marshall Plan" some of them have been asking for. They were looking for a savior: Russia, the E.U. or the U.S. The Obama adminstration clearly doesn't want to be the savior. Call that "meddling" if you wish.
I see it as very consistent with what the Obama administration has done with other revolutions, like Egypt and Syria: as little as possible, with some ineptness at times. Almost everywhere this administration seems to care about promoting stability so that things can work out slowly for themselves over anything else. It's more like: we really really want to avoid having to meddle. You can certainly call "as little as possible" meddling if you wish. But I've got to say that I think that's an inaccurate view of their foreign policy, one that presumes this administration is no different from the last one, perhaps still some residual Bush derangement syndrome in thinking that the Obama administration is involved in ideological "meddling," Ever wonder why people like John McCain don't agree that that is the case?
by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 10:44am
They did meddle in Libya and Syria(the meddling in Syria was more limited than that in Libya), but in Egypt and Tunisia they pretty much left it to the inhabitants to handle. Someone at EOZ said that Obama overthrew Mubarak, but I think that is false.
by Aaron Carine (not verified) on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 11:02am
Libya was on the condition that other countries do all the heavy lifting, with us finally agreeing that if they did so, we would help out. I recall his speech announcing participation as a "no brainer" that he felt there was little risk involved. (No boots on ground, no boots on ground, the Kosovo thing...) And that it took a while for us to decide to participate, some arm twisting. That is a far cry from trying to remake the world in the image of the U.S. It is basically quite opposite. I think understanding this is important, it is the basis of GOP hawk dissatisfaction with him, and they have it right what they see. Neo-liberals who see him not dong the American exceptionalism thing have it right. Lefties who consider him Republican lite on foreign policy have it wrong.
A point on Syria. He made the red line threat. He backtracked on it the moment he got an out. That's not a meddlin' man, that's a mistake. A mistake that will live on in infamy for those who believe in "U.S.A # 1" might and power and standing behind your threats.
by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 11:29am
P.S. For all national politicians and administration representatives, we shouldn't forget that foreign policy is sometimes domestic politics via lobbying groups of American citizens of various heritages. I thought of this right away with Lulu's video link, it's was a speech to the U.S. Ukraine Foundation. That's like giving a speech to AIPAC. What someone says to AIPAC or any similar organization is usually spun to make them happy and one must be careful not to take it as whole truth about actual policy. I must admit I didn't listen to it, I don't think that would be a wise use of time in this case, listening to spin for a lobbying group, when I am still trying to figure out the actual situation.
by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 11:37am
P.S. For all national politicians and administration representatives, we shouldn't forget that foreign policy is sometimes domestic politics via lobbying groups of American citizens of various heritages.
Agreed, but in this case I very much doubt the speech was made as a play for the American Ukraine vote.
I thought of this right away with Lulu's video link, it's was a speech to the U.S. Ukraine Foundation. That's like giving a speech to AIPAC. What someone says to AIPAC or any similar organization is usually spun to make them happy and one must be careful not to take it as whole truth about actual policy.
I think listening to a leader's speech before a group that has a particular agenda regarding the issue at hand can be very helpful but I agree that one person's speech cannot always be taken as their government actuall and total position. I think your comparison to a speech at AIPAC by an American politician is particularly apt and I thought of it myself but was hesitant to make it for fear of radically diverting the conversation.
Unlike AIPAC, I have not been able to find out much about The US Ukraine Foundation's lobbying goals but I assume they are aligned with one side or the other in the deeply divided positions held by the various groups whithin Ukraine as made clear by the maps recently posted here and in other ways.
Among other things, Nuland's speech is obviously intended to show general alignment with USUF's position and, like a US official's speech before AIPAC, it is intended to send a message to many people and groups beyond the ones in the room. So, it is definitely taking a side but in this case not honestly, IMO.
Again, ignoring the strong divisions of sentiment in Ukraine, Nuland talks as if the entire county's wishes were in alignment with a desire to overthrow of the current government and a move towards the EU and away from Russia. At one point she actually describes peaceful demonstrators, the only kind of demonstrator she acknowledges to exist, as sitting around singing hymns of peace when the authorities opened fire on them. I believe that reading a transcript would reveal her strong bias and willingness, actually I mean her intention, to misrepresent the situation, but listening would make it even more obvious.
Nuland very strongly and very explicitly says that it is the hope and intention to bring Ukraine towards the West and away from Russia. Fair enough if that is a legitimate policy and if the reasons to do so are honestly expressed BUT that expression, by itself when done by the U.S, is powerful enough to be considered meddling in the internal and local affairs of a foreign government. Handing out cookies to the protesters during a potentially explosive standoff with their government as they confront that government is itself meddling which would be strongly condemned and probably halted if done by a foreign ambassador hostile to our government and done in front of the White House. It is messaging of support for various groups who are in some cases sharply divided among themselves but it is obviously not all the support that has been offered or implied.
Following your third link above and also other articles at the same place make it clear that the Ukraine was made an offer by the West that it could not accept for political reasons and because of the many strings attached. If that is a fair conclusion then I think it is fair to believe that the offer was made with that understanding.
Results of the political mechanizations play out among the population but the policies originate among small groups. I seriously doubt that the weight of the citizenry of the EU strongly favor bringing in Ukraine to the EU and I doubt doing so at any time in the near future would help stabilize anything.
by A Guy Called LULU on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 2:56pm
PS, I couldn't know how bad your slow download problem is but the part of Nuland's speech which is covered only lasts a bit more than seven minutes.
by A Guy Called LULU on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 3:41pm
If I wasn't clear, I think something like the leaked audio of what she said on the phone to Ambassador Pyatt gives a better picture of what is going on than a formal speech to a lobby that has to be unspun and decoded to get at the truth.
by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 5:23pm
That comports with my belief that listening to the speech tells more about attitude than does just reading a transcription. Both your example of her 'fuck the EU' comment and her delivery of the speech convince me that she has an attitude I do not like, I cannot support, and which I think is ultimately harmful to our interests. BUT, I found a transcription which was not hard, I just hadn't thought to look.
I may get unlazy enough to listen or try to read the speeches of other participants sometime later.
http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2013/dec/218804.htm
by A Guy Called LULU on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 6:15pm
One thing that encourages blogging by halfway informed people like myself is that there is always someone somewhere with some amount of established credence [with at least one or two people] that takes what is at least approximately the same position.
How's that for a boatload of equivocation in one sentence?
http://consortiumnews.com/2014/02/23/neocons-and-the-ukraine-coup/
Most everyone's mileage will no doubt vary.
by A Guy Called LULU on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 5:28pm
Well, in my humble opinion, making war in Libya and threatening to make war in Syria was full on, Scooby Doo meddling, since those governments weren't threatening us.
by Aaron Carine on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 8:41pm
Susan Rice in an NBC interview:
....This is not about the U.S. and Russia.
by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 12:29pm
versus Foxnews.com headline right now:
by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 12:39pm
Do you think the Russians fear American nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil, directed towards Moscow and this is Putin' Cuban crisis?
by Resistance on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 7:22pm
The Thatcherite view blasting the wobbly Obama for the world's woes, from a columnist @ the right-of-center Telegraph:
by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2014 - 5:16pm