By Charlie Cook, National Journal, Jan. 6, 2011

Iowa culled the unwieldy herd of Republican presidential contenders but raised some new questions about what will happen next. To use the NCAA basketball tournament analogy, third-place finisher Ron Paul advances to the next round as winner of his own libertarian/isolationist bracket. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania wins the more conservative bracket, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney prevails in the more moderate mainstream bracket. The problem for Paul is that his bracket never really intersects with the other two. The Texan’s rather exotic positions on issues attract a fervent niche but also limit his ability to expand. In short, Paul isn’t particularly relevant to other candidates or to the shape of the race itself.

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The truth is that polling does not show that Romney’s negatives are particularly high. The conservatives and evangelicals who have supported the other candidates were expressing a preference for the bolder and zestier brand of conservatism.

The $64,000 question is whether they will settle for anything less—whether it is just a preference or if it is a deal-breaker. Will voters insist on someone more strident than a button-down, corporate-style Republican? At this point, I think Republicans are unified by their opposition to President Obama and fervent desire to defeat him. They have preferences about how to beat him, but the ultimate goal is to evict him from the White House.

This is where Gingrich comes into play. [....]