Trump’s gains among white voters without a college degree were less substantial than his losses among educated white voters, and that appears to have cost him in three states. https://t.co/wJEhsIAKaO
By Nathaniel Rakich & Elena Mejia @ fivethirtyeight.com, Nov 18
Joe Biden may have won the White House, but down-ballot races were much better for Republicans. In fact, the GOP’s victories in state-level elections could pay dividends long after Biden leaves office, thanks to their influence over next year’s redistricting process.
Every 10 years, after the census, congressional and state legislature districts are redrawn to account for population changes. This gives whoever is drawing the maps the power to maximize the number of districts that favor their party — a tactic known as gerrymandering. And as we wrote last month, the 2020 election represented the last chance for voters to weigh in on who would draw those maps. Both parties went into the election with a chance to draw more congressional districts than the other, but the end result was just about the best-case scenario for Republicans. As the map below shows, Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent.
But top-line numbers about seats gained and lost can only tell us so much. Let’s look at some of the major takeaways from the 2020 House elections.
Republicans outperformed expectations
Coming into the 2020 election, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast only gave Republicans about a 1 in 6 shot of picking up six or more seats, and if the GOP gains more as-yet-uncalled seats in the coming days, the party’s haul could become even more unlikely.
It’s not just the flipped seats that are impressive, though. Not a single Republican incumbent has lost in the races where we know the outcomes thus far. Among the outstanding contests, only California Rep. Mike Garcia, who won a May special election, appears to be in danger of losing.
Open-seat races have also been friendly to Republicans, despite the large number of GOP incumbents who retired or left office ahead of the 2020 election [....]
well-stated paragraph from the first article, really does a good job of summing up the rally going fans of Trumpism/MAGA:
Part of what is happening, according to Arlie Hochschild, a sociologist at the University of California who has written extensively about conservative voters, is that many less educated white voters have come to see Trump as their champion. “They feel that Trump is making them great again — their social class and their identity as whites,” she said. “Many of them feel that as white [people], they’re discriminated against.” She added that even if Biden might have personally appealed to those voters, it might not have been enough to overcome their suspicion that the Democratic Party as a whole was hostile to their worldview.
suggestion to cut the elite progressive activist jargon and substitute with labor union style:
Labor unions were historically Democrats’ most effective persuasion tool because they know how to communiate with people in accessible language rather than activist jargonhttps://t.co/3SfYY1tExCpic.twitter.com/ScZdUngomp
When we win people stand up to take credit. When we lose people look for someone to blame. I did a quick search to verify my guess. My guess based on basic knowledge of the country turned out to be true. Nevada has 200 thousand union members with a population of 2.8 million. Arizona has 100 thousand union members with a population of 7.2 million. The question I have is if latino organizers with union backgrounds are so good why did they succeed in Arizona but fail in Nevada? If using latinx is such a turn off to latinos how were the Arizona latino union influencers able to counteract that when the Nevada latino union influencers weren't?
From my years doing political analysis, I'd say it comes down to a bunch of people went out and did a bunch of shit, and what worked 4 years ago didn't work as much, and some of what didn't work last time worked this, and while some of it was some new stuff that people pulled, and while the nation is largely moving on, a good portion is looking back or staying put, but without doubt the most effective and gamechanging group effort has to go to... sorry, it's in my other notebook - be right back.
Yeah I get it. It's like from my years doing organic gardening, I'd say it comes down to a bunch of shit, and what worked 4 some soils didn't work as much for other soils. Horse shit is better than cow shit. Chicken shit is better than horse shit. And bat shit has such a high concentration of nitrogen is almost the equivalent of a chemical fertilizer like ammonia nitrate. But if the soil is extremely low in organic matter shit isn't enough. Horse stable bedding with it's mixture of urine soaked straw and horse shit is really the best for that situation.
I guess what I've learned if that while you have to do a bunch of shit to win an election sometimes you need more than just a bunch of shit.
Have to note I've never seen so much shit in one comment - 10lbs in a 5lb bag, as they say. Scat-o-logical even - you just might be Superman cuz in real life you're a mild manured man.
In 1980, the Democrats only won 9/100 of the highest income counties. In 2020, Biden won over fifty percent (57/43) of the highest income counties. Part of this, of course, was due to Trump's unique character flaws, but it is also part of a long-term Party reversal. pic.twitter.com/BFYkUzCFan
A key take home: Culture matters. Voters are not income maximizers simply punching the ballot for the candidate who is most likely to improve their post-tax net worth. Rather, they are voting for candidates & coalitions with whom they share broad cultural affinities.
Not just the professional and managerial class, but big corporations too, if Trumpism continues to have a stranglehold on the GOP? Just sayin, after I saw this tweet:
Corporate leaders foresee a more traditional, “no-nonsense” working relationship with the White House. And they urge the next administration to prioritize the Covid-19 pandemic. https://t.co/XyxuKPG6p8
It's clear from looking at the thread that she does advocacy journalism for grassroots left purposes. No data. One story for each demographic group, interviews cherry picked for purposes of rah-rah, we can make a difference SPIN; P.R. Which is fine for what it is, but doesn't help analyze results. Zero real proof the people in her stories really represent their demographics.
She actually straight out says what she's trying to do in the first tweet It’s amazing how Michigan voters and democracy activists aren’t cast as the protagonists in their own story, she's trying to cast democracy activists as the protagonists in their own story.
They are all have the same pitfalls and usefulness of like NYTimes' stories along the lines of "who are these rural Trump fans? let's talk to some of them and see if we can't try and figure them out." Except these are all selected for left activist perspective.
Comments
Related: What Blue And Red ‘Shifts’ Looked Like In Every State
Published Nov. 12, 2020 @ same
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/24/2020 - 1:38am
Republicans Won Almost Every Election Where Redistricting Was At Stake
By Nathaniel Rakich & Elena Mejia @ fivethirtyeight.com, Nov 18
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/24/2020 - 1:46am
Republicans Are On Track To Take Back The House In 2022
By Geoffrey Skelley @ fivethirtyeight.com, Nov. 12
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/24/2020 - 1:52am
well-stated paragraph from the first article, really does a good job of summing up the rally going fans of Trumpism/MAGA:
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/24/2020 - 2:10am
suggestion to cut the elite progressive activist jargon and substitute with labor union style:
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/24/2020 - 11:35am
When we win people stand up to take credit. When we lose people look for someone to blame. I did a quick search to verify my guess. My guess based on basic knowledge of the country turned out to be true. Nevada has 200 thousand union members with a population of 2.8 million. Arizona has 100 thousand union members with a population of 7.2 million. The question I have is if latino organizers with union backgrounds are so good why did they succeed in Arizona but fail in Nevada? If using latinx is such a turn off to latinos how were the Arizona latino union influencers able to counteract that when the Nevada latino union influencers weren't?
by ocean-kat on Tue, 11/24/2020 - 1:05pm
From my years doing political analysis, I'd say it comes down to a bunch of people went out and did a bunch of shit, and what worked 4 years ago didn't work as much, and some of what didn't work last time worked this, and while some of it was some new stuff that people pulled, and while the nation is largely moving on, a good portion is looking back or staying put, but without doubt the most effective and gamechanging group effort has to go to... sorry, it's in my other notebook - be right back.
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 11/24/2020 - 2:22pm
Yeah I get it. It's like from my years doing organic gardening, I'd say it comes down to a bunch of shit, and what worked 4 some soils didn't work as much for other soils. Horse shit is better than cow shit. Chicken shit is better than horse shit. And bat shit has such a high concentration of nitrogen is almost the equivalent of a chemical fertilizer like ammonia nitrate. But if the soil is extremely low in organic matter shit isn't enough. Horse stable bedding with it's mixture of urine soaked straw and horse shit is really the best for that situation.
I guess what I've learned if that while you have to do a bunch of shit to win an election sometimes you need more than just a bunch of shit.
by ocean-kat on Tue, 11/24/2020 - 10:56pm
You can lead a horticulture...
Have to note I've never seen so much shit in one comment - 10lbs in a 5lb bag, as they say. Scat-o-logical even - you just might be Superman cuz in real life you're a mild manured man.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 11/25/2020 - 2:24am
I have to admit, it was in part a chicken shit post.
by ocean-kat on Wed, 11/25/2020 - 2:38am
he got some interesting comments in replies
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/24/2020 - 9:29pm
Not just the professional and managerial class, but big corporations too, if Trumpism continues to have a stranglehold on the GOP? Just sayin, after I saw this tweet:
And thinking of that in turn reminds me of this recent news item, also WSJ:
CHARLES KOCH SAYS HIS PARTISANSHIP WAS A MISTAKE
By artappraiser on Fri, 11/13/2020 - 5:29pm
by artappraiser on Wed, 11/25/2020 - 3:42am
Michigan turnout thread
(I'm blocked, so can't read it - hope it's good)
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 11/25/2020 - 7:45am
It's clear from looking at the thread that she does advocacy journalism for grassroots left purposes. No data. One story for each demographic group, interviews cherry picked for purposes of rah-rah, we can make a difference SPIN; P.R. Which is fine for what it is, but doesn't help analyze results. Zero real proof the people in her stories really represent their demographics.
She actually straight out says what she's trying to do in the first tweet It’s amazing how Michigan voters and democracy activists aren’t cast as the protagonists in their own story, she's trying to cast democracy activists as the protagonists in their own story.
They are all have the same pitfalls and usefulness of like NYTimes' stories along the lines of "who are these rural Trump fans? let's talk to some of them and see if we can't try and figure them out." Except these are all selected for left activist perspective.
by artappraiser on Wed, 11/25/2020 - 1:03pm
Ah well, tx for reading so I didn't haff 2
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 11/25/2020 - 1:11pm