MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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Failed attempt
By Flavius on Mon, 11/05/2018 - 2:18pm |
The top line is what 538 reported sunday. Where there is a second line that is what 538 reported today.
All data is for the Senate unless marked HO
Pollster Number ................................polled
Mo Harris 600 McCaskill 45 Hawley 40 …… Trafalcar 1791 44 48
Ind Harris 600 Donnelly 44 Braun 42
FL " " Nelson 46 Scott 48
Ariz " " Sinema 44 McSally 49
Mont " 500 Tester 50 Rosedale 42 ... Change 879 46 49 ............... Research
Tenn Targoz 480 Bredesen 49 Blackburn 49
Ariz Trafalcar 2166 Sinema 50 McSally 47 ........ ......... OH Predictive 631 48 49
NM Research&Polling Heinrich 51 Rich 31
NM HO " Halland 50 Arnold Jones 38
NM HO " Small 45 Herrell 46
CA HO Pobolsky 900 Newsom 47 Cox 37
CA Pobolsky 900 Feinstein 41 De Leon 35
NY Siena 641 Gillibrand 58 Farley 35
PA Res &poll 450 Casey 58 Barletta 39 ..... Res & poll 1833 51 44
Mn " 450 Smith 49 Housely 39
.SurveyUSA 600 48 40
MN " 450 Klobuchar 53 Newberger 33 " 600 57 34
Mich " 450 Stabenow 52 James 36
Mich HO Target etc 800 " 53 43
WI HO JMC Analytics 500 Kohl 33 Grothman 60
OH HO Optimus 800 Harbaugh 36 Gibbs 55
AZ " 750 O'Halleran 48 Rogers 45
NJ Change Research 1006 Menendez 51 Hugin 41
Wy " " 858 Trauner 31 Barrasso 60 " Ohio " " 923 Brown 53 Renacci 43
Wy HO " “ 879 Williams 48 Gianforte 52
Wy HO " " 858 Hunter 28 Cheney 55
SD HO " " 851 Bjorkman 41 Johnson 51
OH HO " " 350 Garrett 36 Jordan 50
NH HO UNH 321 Kuster 56 Negron 35
NH HO UNH 309 Pappas 53 Edwards 40
- 4334 reads
Comments
Election polling data is based on several guesses. A few of those guesses are: What percentage of the electorate will be democrat, independant, or republican. Which respondents to the poll are likely to vote. What percentage of the vote will be older, middle aged, or young. The raw data is weighted to reflect those guesses. Those initial guesses have already turned out to be incorrect in some ways. Early voting has been robust beyond all expectations. In 29 states early voting has vastly exceeded early voting in previous mid term elections. In three states early voting has already exceeded the total vote in 2014. In some ways this looks good for democrats. As someone posted, you or Arta, youth vote has seen a remarkable increase. In other ways it looks better for republicans. The generic ballot numbers are improving for republicans. But it looks to be an unusual election year and we just don't know who and how many will turn out to vote.
by ocean-kat on Mon, 11/05/2018 - 5:09pm
youth turnout thing in first comment here; I'm gonna post more there if I see it, as I find it an interesting topic in itself. Just now while driving, heard a story on the local NPR, they went to a high school class in a public school in the Bronx debating how low they think the voting age should go--there were the ones for 15 and then the ones for 13. Suffice it to say, they wish they could vote tomorrow.
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/05/2018 - 6:06pm
PSST: the two master poll wonk Nates, talking to each other on twitter: looks to me like they are basically admitting many election results are currently unpredictable:
by artappraiser on Mon, 11/05/2018 - 7:38pm
Yes . That's powerful
by Flavius on Tue, 11/06/2018 - 12:36am
When I started 2 weeks ago simply repeating the 538's daily reports from- the-front I was literally thinking
Or more apt
This is the pony. From when the "start" (July 1 ? Feb 2017?) to now ,Nate says a 3% gain.
I'll take that for encouragement until maybe 9 30 tomorrow evening.
From having buried myself in paper work I did generate a sort of generalization ( the very thing we were looking for !) .
I was looking to see whether ,in the past two weeks, post- Kavanaugh ,post the "Caravan" callous heartlessness, there were signs of across- the- board back- sliding. That's certainly not the case. Just turning the pages of those extracts - if you're basically numerical you at least con yourself into believing that you've sensed the basic drift.
Reminds me of a line from Christopher Fry's "A Phoenix too frequent"
Alas Dnomini for (whomever) ..........
Who Made Balance Sheets sound like Homer
And Homer sound like Balance Sheets
by Flavius on Tue, 11/06/2018 - 1:20am
interesting stuff on how/why the Independent factor can screw up pollsters in certain states:
by artappraiser on Tue, 11/06/2018 - 12:11am
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/29/2018 - 12:50pm