Math is Tuff

By PeraclesPlease on Wed, 05/18/2016 - 10:30am |

So if superdelegates shouldn't count, there are 4051 pledged delegates.

1/2 plus 1 = 2026 to win.

Hillary has roughly 1717 after last night - a few more to be awarded

She needs 309 for pledged victory.

There are 781 pledged delegates left.

With 40% of the remainder, she wins.

With 51% of California and New Jersey, she wins even with delegates elsewhere.

If she gets 45% of all others (81), she only needs 38% of CA & NJ to win (228)

There will be no contested convention. It's all predicated on bad math - if superdelegates are tossed out, the half to victory goes down.

Does not augur well for someone who wants to offer budget busting reforms. Math ain't that tuff. (Even for a girl?)

Comments

Update: latest tally Clinton has 1771 - only 255 pledged delegates needed for victory, 32% of remaining. Only 109 if superdelegates counted.

Bernie would need every contest to be a blowout like Vermont.

by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 05/19/2016 - 4:49am

Assuming Hillary's super delegates remain loyal she only needs an additional 91 pledged delegates.

Bernie knows this as well but is remaining in the race because.

o he'll have more clout at the convention if he shows he got some votes from NJ and Cal

o he likes campaigning

o he thinks Hillary will be indicted before the convention and her superdelegates will bail.

by Flavius on Thu, 05/19/2016 - 1:08pm