Smart political people analyze the big picture fallout of Bernie being the current frontrunner

By artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 9:32pm |

TBH the best electability case that any of the Democrats can make is that none of the other Democrats has a great electability case https://t.co/EN522VrBsv
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 24, 2020

2/2. Sanders hasn't either--he still has a big problem with older voters. But he's so strong in the under-40 demographic that he has a larger base than anybody else, and his support appears to be rising among non-whites and the college-educated, at least it did in NV.
— John Cassidy (@JohnCassidy) February 23, 2020

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Anyone who thinks Biden can win the nomination has been working too long with numbers instead of the alphabet

That's not an attack on Biden—it's a comment on where America is, where the Democratic Party is, and where *Biden* is, which (candidly) is a few decades shy of the 2020s https://t.co/46c1WVpccB
— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) February 24, 2020

PS/ When your campaign bus is called the "No Malarkey" bus, it means you've ceased either hiring or (if hired) being willing to *listen* to any advice from anyone under the age of 35, and that is quite simply the death knell for any presidential candidate in the digital twenties
— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) February 24, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 9:35pm

Anyone who thinks Biden can win the nomination has been working too long with numbers instead of the alphabet

Hey PP, Seth must have read our thread. We definitely worked much longer with the alphabet instead of the numbers. We're ahead of the curve.

by ocean-kat on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 11:04pm

Runes rule! One ring to rool them all and in the blogsphere bind them. Math is tuff. Runes is ruff. I'll keep my pet rocks.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 1:13am

Politico report that centrists/establishment Dems depressed/demoralized:

“It’s this incredible sense that we’re hurtling to the abyss. I also think we could lose the House. And if we do, there would be absolutely no way to stop [Trump]. Today is the most depressed I’ve ever been in politics.” https://t.co/2ejdoCQ4ng
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) February 24, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 10:20pm

1/I've been thinking about this tweet. And more generally, about what the rise of Sanders means for the Social Justice movement (i.e. "wokeness"). Here are a few thoughts.

(warning: this thread will play fast and loose with terms like "Social Justice" and "wokeness"...) https://t.co/ma6DwvENDr
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

2/There's a strong version of this take, which is of Bernie as an anti-woke Old White Man, who wants to ignore race and gender in favor of an obsessive focus on class.

That sort of take was common back in 2015-16, spurred by events like this:https://t.co/gXj37aKhRT
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

3/But while I know a few conservatives who hope that something like this is true, I think this "Bernie as anti-woke reaction" take is pretty wrong.

The primary reason being that Bernie's young core supporters, while not always THE wokest, are fairly woke! And pretty diverse.
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

4/But there is a milder, more circumspect version of this take that I do kind of buy, which is that enthusiasm for Bernie, rather than for candidates whose primary electoral pitch was Social Justice, may mean that wokeness has less revolutionary energy than many believed.
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

5/The Democratic candidates who made wokeness their primary pitch - Kirsten Gillibrand, Julian Castro, Beto O'Rourke - flamed out. Kamala Harris was also seen by many as a woke champion, and also flamed out.
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

6/Now Elizabeth Warren is, without a doubt, the wokest candidate - i.e. the candidate who emphasizes Social Justice the most in her rhetoric and her style. But if this doesn't lead to a recovery in the polls, it means every "candidate of wokeness" will have been clobbered.
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

7/The groundswell of support for Bernie among young left-leaning people shows that the revolutionary passion may go in a more economic direction.

As @jdcmedlock so memorably put it:

Broke: Wokescolds

Woke: Brokescolds
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

8/So the plausible version of the "Bernie killed wokeness" thesis is that Bernie just happened to be there, absorbing some of the revolutionary energies that otherwise might have been directed toward Social Justice causes.
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

9/Now if this is indeed what happened, why did this happen?

One possible reason is that the more extreme forms of Social Justice ideology were always less popular than they seemed here on Twitter.
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

11/It can be hard to tell whether a Twitter movement's Shouting Class represents a fringe viewpoint or an ideology with broad deep support among the populace at large.

Twitter Socialism may simply turn out to have broader, deeper support than Twitter Social Justice did.
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

12/An alternative (optimistic) explanation is that Social Justice has already succeeded in many of its aims.

Sexual harassment, for example, is way down (despite a likely increase in willingness to report incidents):https://t.co/qukNclkkvK
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

13/And cops who shoot Black people might now run a much greater risk of being sent to prison.https://t.co/RqG6ZUGpdE
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

14/And some police departments across the country may now be reforming themselves and building a more harmonious relationship with Black communities.https://t.co/UKRWYsumM9
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

15/Furthermore, it's certain that President Bernie's appointees will be far more woke than anyone Trump would appoint, and probably more woke than Obama's administration too.

So it's far from doom and gloom for the Social Justice movement.
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

16/A friend recently suggested to me that wokeness might simply make for bad national electoral politics, and that the movement will now focus more on arenas where it's stronger - universities, corporations, and other institutions.

Could be!
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

17/So anyway, if I were to embrace any aspect of the "Bernie killed wokeness" thesis @AliceFromQueens advanced, it would not be that Bernie is a reaction against wokeness, but rather a redirection of the energy it created toward other ends.

...As always, we shall see!

(end)
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) February 23, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 10:58pm

Good Wesley Yang reply to Smith's point #5:

Some Democrats made a category mistake this election season thinking wokeness was a way to win national elections, rather than a way to dominate liberal institutions operating beyond the reach of popular control https://t.co/fOWt385Ne9
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) February 24, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 11:21pm

Andrew Yang, 6 hrs. ago:

I respect the will of the people.
— Andrew Yang (@AndrewYang) February 23, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 11:03pm

Which candidate can best appeal to working class Obama-to-Trump switchers in the pivotal states?

We asked six college-educated life-long Republicans who find Trump skeevy.

Their stories:
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) February 24, 2020

If you’re worried about Bernie on substance rather than diffuse electability grounds ask yourself:

Are there accounts from Bernie’s tenure as mayor of Burlington of his left-wing ideas going off the rails and ruining everything? Why not?
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) February 23, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 11:06pm

moved to correct location

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 11:19pm

No Democrat is running a campaign good enough for a large victory over Trump, which is probably what it would take to implement their agenda. Lots of room for improvement across the board. For Trump, he's got a decent chance of re-election. https://t.co/4F6tGRmnqz
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) February 24, 2020

The Democratic Party is pretty weak at this point. It's been very cordial compared to what it was in past cycles like 2008 and 2004. I doubt the GOP is going to take it as easy, they will have hundreds of millions in attack ads at the very least.
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) February 24, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 11:26pm

Zaid Jilani vs. David Leonardt:

Sanders should do more to reach out to people outside his base, sure, but he went on Fox News, Joe Rogan, spoke to Liberty University, defended Ann Coulter's right to speech, campaigned for a pro-life Democrat, did dozens of rallies for Hillary Clinton https://t.co/FizGVGMP88
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) February 24, 2020

Maybe he should do more, but he's also done more than just about anyone else.
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) February 24, 2020

Yeah it would be toxic in a general election to appeal more to the latter group https://t.co/tKwJqGX3GX
— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) February 24, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 11:51pm

Dems haven't learned the lesson of 5-year-plans, the bane of socialism/Communism. It's one thing to unblock structural impediments in an economy or policy implementation - another to mass orchestrate some common good. Warren has excelled in trying to level the playing field. Creating some magical policies for every candidate to sign off on is goofy. I understand the concept of reach, but when you have to reorganize the economy willy nilly and piss off potential allies for a more methodical, sustainable & less disruptive approach?

I'm happy if a candidate hits say 70% of my preferences. Shitty as I felt about him, Reagan did largely stare down the Soviets vs Carter telling everyone to put on a sweater and learn to live without.

Does Bernie get global warming more than Trump? (or Warren for that matter). Or just plan on spending a lot more? ($16 trillion from his website)

The US has fewer then 300 million vehicles on the road, producing 1/5 our global warming output. For about $35K apiece, we could replace most of those with Teslas or equivalent, for roughly $10 trillion.

Number of houses in US is about 140 million, so high output/quality solar roofs of $40k each would be about $5 trillion - largely doing away with another 30% of our greenhouse gas emissions.

Of course it's not quite that easy - battery tech still needs much improvement and it'd be hard to dig that much Lithium out of the earth, production facilities aren't there to churn out that volume, better charging infrastructure needs to be put in (though with massive investment in solar roofs, it'd be rather ubiquitous)... while the costs might be a lot less (cost sharing) with additional (new development and facilities).

But what's on the debate agenda? getting rid of fracking - which brought us independence from Mideast oil (yes, it produces methane as well, so need to find better ways of mitigating, along with water table runoff). And doing away with nuclear - which is greenhouse gas neutral, and with hopefully much much safer & smaller/modular Class IV reactors in research, would churn out a lot more renewable non-greenhouse energy than solar panels will (and disposing of those panels will be another ecological adventure). But no, instead of "let's solve our global warming crisis", it's back to "let's feed our energy and pollution and class warfare and nuclear fears all at once". Somebody has an agenda, and instead of a moonshot as such an endeavour should be, they want to make it a much more diffuse Great Society effort with no real grownups in the room. Take a look at the part for putting in a lot of roads and bridges - without accounting for the massive greenhouse gases involved in pouring asphalt, cement and concrete. It all becomes a Wish Sandwich. If NASA worked like this we might have hit Venus by mistake.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 5:19am

"let's feed our energy and pollution and class warfare and nuclear fears all at once" sums it up.

Throw in free college, free medical and free dental for life, loan wipeout, jail CEOs, ..... promising herds of instant gratification ponies to gullible mobs the majority of whom don't even know the 3 branches of government, nonetheless the certainty none of this stuff Bernie hollers about will ever happen.

In Nevada reports were that "the 70,000 member union position that they wouldn't endorse Bernie because he would outlaw the healthcare insurance they battled 40 years to get didn't have much impact as union members said they thought about it and would like their relatives and friends to have it too, which Bernie promised.. "

40 years to get coverage for 70,000, Bernie promises to get it for 330 million, plus unknown millions of "illegals"?

by NCD on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 10:31am

Math is magical - just find the right multiple.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 11:56am

For 330 million I get 18,857.1 years to do it, Bernie's 4672nd term.

by NCD on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 1:07pm

I shoulda thrown in exponentials or π or something. I get only 439 or so, so his 109th term. Hate to exaggerate.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 1:26pm

This was already partly addressed in Nov. on late night teevee, I recall:

SNL Spoofs Warren's Medicare For All Plan: Numbers This Big Are Just Pretend, "Money Doesn't Exist"

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 8:03pm

Just FYI, NCD, I just ran across one you forgot: free child care and pre-K for all, $1.5 trillion over the next decade.

On Medicare for all, I am finally starting to sort out the confusing stats on polls. I just saw a very good recent reference, sorry I can't find, that convinced me that the general public says they are for it UNTIL they are asked if it means outlawing private insurance and requiring Medicare, the amount in support plummets to a minority, So what the majority of Americans really support is a public option.

BUT BUT BUT when you go to activist Democratic party members ot the type who show up and vote in primary causcuses, and they are told it would mean getting rid of private insurance, the results are a majority but not that stunning really

For those wondering, here's the wording of our NBC News poll question on Medicare for All: "How do you feel about replacing all private health insurance with a single government plan for everyone?" https://t.co/Sbm3OKuAhO
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 23, 2020

Just not enough support for single payer out there, if only 60% of the Democratic faithful voters are for it! Think of the anger out there if it was even tried--the town halls, etc. They'd bring pitchforks, guns mebbe if Bernie goes back to supporting some gun ownership...

Myself I find it sad that we're not there yet, but it is what it is! Can't force it, people aren't there yet. And I don't think it's ideal anyways--mho, nationalized health service with private supplementary insurance is the best way. After all, that single payer can at times be as bad as any insurance company if what you need is not on their protocol or formulary. Myself, I'd just appreciate anyone trying to organize and clean up the huge mess we got right now....

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 8:06pm

Annenberg at U of Penn found only 1 out of 3 Americans csn name the 3 branches of our government. When Bernie says free healthcare, free dental, free college and free child care, "paid for by a small tax on Wall Street speculators and billionaires (not millionaires as that would include Bernie) it's easy to convince the low information voter he can do it. Alone. Forget those corrupt Democrats. Don't need 'em.

Bernie is a populist demagogue, Trump a wannabe fascist demagogue. "Only Bernie" will fight the evil "establishment" , "only Donald Trump" will fight the evil "deep state." They are both narcissistic flim flam blowhards. If they are the future of our politics we are in serious trouble.

by NCD on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 12:45am

Just don't know:

The evidence doesn't back #Democrats' panic that #Bernie can't win - Axios. The editor, ⁦@JimVandeHei⁩, says at the end here that he had no idea what the voters are going to want this year. Very humble, very true. https://t.co/hHLa1dx0I1
— Howard Fineman (@howardfineman) February 24, 2020

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 6:37pm

Very interesting media insider scuttlebutt:

Worked for the nets with Trump. What could go wrong https://t.co/CRNTPMZf8e
— Jim Swift (@JimSwiftDC) February 25, 2020

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 7:01pm

Nate Silver a few minutes ago...coming to some conclusions but also still seems to be processing:

This seems right. Biden and Warren directly compete for parts of Sanders's coalition; maybe not his ~20% base, but certainly the voters he'd need to get to 30%, 35%, 40% and beyond. Not much overlap between Buttiegieg or Bloomberg and Sanders. https://t.co/KhTytXxkcG
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 25, 2020

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 7:22pm

Rick Wilson has no need for all of yas fucking analyis:

I don't *care* about Bernie's philosophy. It's totally irrelevant to me.

I *care* that Bernie is Trump's re-election insurance and may very will lose the House and prevent a recapture of the Senate.

I want to defeat Trump, full stop. That's all.
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 24, 2020

Wilson gets shit done. https://t.co/3NAO1S0XR8
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 24, 2020

Gee, it’s ALMOST as if Trump’s fluffer brigade is desperate to have Bernie as the nominee.

ALMOST. https://t.co/YHJVWcW1nT
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 25, 2020

I await my 'The Federalist For Bernie' mailers.
— Dennis Herring (@dcherring) February 25, 2020

RICK WILSON: SAVING AMERICA FROM TRUMP (AND DEMOCRATS FROM THEMSELVES) https://t.co/FslgjcOKIO via @YouTube
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 24, 2020

As I like to say, they're holistically bad at politics. Good in places and some areas, bad overall. https://t.co/SQWretNrLO
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 24, 2020

I join @anamariecox for a chipper discussion about the doom before us. https://t.co/xKpFUwouyE
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 24, 2020

Wait wait...so there's a Bernie-backed candidate trying to knock out Nancy Pelosi?

Tell me MORE about your plan to elect Trump again, bros.
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 24, 2020

etc

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 10:27pm

There's a big push by right wingers to create a rift between AOC and the rest of Dem's, incl NYPost putting out a 3 year old video w talk about Hillary (which I thought was fair and respectful), along with blowing up Whoopi's anger (vs the careful tone and message AOC used). And there's nothing wrong with AIC backing "Justice Democrats" with values sh upholds, as long as she's not too much a prick about it (even if one of the opponents is, gasp Black/member of the CBC). (Don't know who's supposed to be primarying Pelosi)

https://www.cnsnews.com/article/national/melanie-arter/aoc-why-she-trigg...

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 11:08pm

Coronoavirus seems pretty invincible, but outside of ground zero you realize the numbers are pretty small and containable, with the treatment pretty straightforward. It's the panic that's to be avoided.

[This has been a barely shrouded analogy from your administrator]

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 11:20pm

Radio Free Tom, like Rick, highlights the story about Bloomberg doing oppo campaign against Bernie:

This is what Trump will do, Democrats, so you should be glad Bloomberg is doing it first. Bernie is a walking oppo trove. https://t.co/WNwcQUi59M
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 24, 2020

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/24/2020 - 11:31pm

Not an op-ed, from the Politics section. By Sydney Embers & Nate Cohn (the other Nate's main competitor)

Bernie Sanders Says He'll Attract a Wave of New Voters. It Hasn't Happened. - The New York Times https://t.co/xYTQTBWZgW
— Charlie Sykes (@SykesCharlie) February 25, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 12:44am

Myth vs reality?

The @thedailybeast reporter who broke the story of a Bernie surrogate running a private account attacking Dem candidates is now being harassed. More since the story broke has been fired. This level of harassment towards press in America is outrageous. Banana republic level https://t.co/7ux7Bn7onv
— Olga Lautman (@olgaNYC1211) February 25, 2020

by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 6:23am

amazing chutzpah to harass him, times have certainly changed. I read the original article and my reaction was: how clueless can you be to be on a campaign staff and to not think someone wouldn't leak that really nasty high school shit like that little private group was talking. If they had a decent mom they'd not only hang their heads in shame but she'd wash their mouths out with soap. I mean, really, I've heard gays talk that kind of game, but they only would dare do it in a dive bar. There are supporters who think it is going to help someone, or something to now attack the reporter? More insane and childish than Trump. Bernie best be getting more grownups around stat!

by artappraiser on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 6:42am

joe says

it's not that I dislike the extremely online left I agree with them about a lot of things i just think they're very confident for people who lose a lot
— joe (@mutablejoe) February 23, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 8:45am

538 Forecasts for all upcoming state Dem primaries, including graphs showing how the forecasts have changed over time Use drop-down list top center to jump to any state.

by artappraiser on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 1:52am

If you don't his background, he's neo-con beltway/swamp guy, still GOP, used ta be head of speechwriting and also a policy advisor for Geo. W. Bush:

My cheerful take: “The realization comes like a nightmare: Maybe there is no longer a democratic constituency for the talents and virtues that make democracy work.” https://t.co/amyIniuYJu https://t.co/wctnSHAjXM
— Michael Gerson (@MJGerson) February 25, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 6:54am

Frum:

Could a Sanders nomination really cost Democrats their House majority? I go district by district, and ... YES. https://t.co/HYqymLneQc
— David Frum (@davidfrum) February 25, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 7:13am

I wrote about IFES and some of its board members here: https://t.co/qmZUvZiRQf 4/
— Jennifer Cohn (@jennycohn1) February 23, 2020

by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 7:52am

"Kos", aka commandant Markos his very self, Monday @ Daily Kos: We need to find a consensus candidate

by artappraiser on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 7:22am

Would independents "vote for someone...who describes themselves as a Democratic Socialist"? 42-26 no.

"consider voting for a presidential candidate who called themselves a Democratic socialist"? 47-31 no.

"ever vote for a Democratic Socialist"? 64-36 no. https://t.co/uNwSkrMecA
— Will Saletan (@saletan) February 25, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 9:03am

from Sunday poll, day after Nevada:

For the 1st time in 2020 democratic presidential campaign, a nationwide poll shows @BernieSanders leading among African American voters. Among all democratic voters, Sanders is +13%, the biggest margin to date. https://t.co/IieBDzlyEf
— David Shuster (@DavidShuster) February 24, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 9:17am

Reuters/Ipsos confirms! Among African Americans, Sanders surpasses Biden:

Sanders surpasses Biden among African American voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll

https://t.co/uosWQkgyd2
— Mike Walker (@New_Narrative) February 26, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 02/25/2020 - 11:13pm

Hey Bernie bros:He is stuck splaining past statements, but guess what, DOH! you don't have to go there, you maybe can even "play politics", ey?

it is really really really really really not that hard for people to not praise Fidel Castro

or Saddam Hussein

or Joseph Stalin

or Pinochet

can we just not
— yasEEn (@RealYaseenA) February 26, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 02/26/2020 - 12:06am

Like it or not, down-but-not-out Uncle Joe clearly has this thing:

An interesting dynamic from this CNN town hall with @JoeBiden: so far, two questioners have told Biden he won their votes tonight.
— Molly Nagle (@MollyNagle3) February 27, 2020

Democrats will make their own choices in this year’s primary, but this right here is as genuine of a moment as I’ve seen in my political life. Watch the entire thing. https://t.co/zZ5XbirEk7
— Nicolle Wallace (@NicolleDWallace) February 27, 2020

Normally hard-bitten cynical Laura Rozen retreated these two:

A profoundly moving response from Biden. https://t.co/Ybrwp8H9xp
— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) February 27, 2020

This whole hour was terrific. https://t.co/UmxTgMcGnS
— danielbenaim (@danielbenaim) February 27, 2020

by artappraiser on Wed, 02/26/2020 - 9:19pm

For neo-liberals, use any slur handy for Bernie:

Bernie, along with Biden and Bloomberg, pre-date Boomers & are members of the "Silent Generation."https://t.co/arSS5pHp3K https://t.co/QdKaOhBNr9
— Richard Florida (@Richard_Florida) February 28, 2020

by artappraiser on Thu, 02/27/2020 - 10:26pm

Smart political people analyze the big picture fallout of Bernie being the current frontrunner

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