Further to my two days' old post  " Obama's quick Gallup recovery".....after being mired at 45% in Gallup's tracking  poll of  likely voters Obama's % starting rising this week

Poll published

Tuesday.              46%

Wednesday          47

Thursday              47

According to Flavius' favorite mathematician  (who is not a millon miles from where F is typing this) what those numbers really  mean is that for the last 3 days 49% of those polled preferred  Obama. But when those daily results were combined with the 45% share he got last week they averaged down to what's shown above.

If he remains at this same  level today Gallup's 1pm announcement tomorrow will be  either another 47% or possibly 48%.(If you want to see the calculation I could post it-but believe me you don't want to).

If you're consistently chosen by 49% of a sample sooner or later Gallup will  report....49% (duh!)