Wisconsin supreme court election

By Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 6:38am |

Kloppenburg will win. NOON Wednes day

With one (pro Prosser ) precinct missing she's ahead by 220

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At 8 am Prosser's lead was @800 with a "couple of dozen precints" missing.

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 9:39am

At 10 am 23 precincts missing representing 7000 votes all but 200 are in counties where Kloppenburg has a lead

missing her %

votes in the rest of the county

Sauk 3600 55%

Milwaukie 900 57

Ashland 700 71

Dane 700 73

Crawford 300 59

If she held those margins in the missing precincts that would put her ahead of Prosser

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 10:27am

At 10 30 Prossenburg's ahead .10 precints still missing

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 10:44am

With Prossenburg ahead by 120 votes (out of 1.5 million )it's impossible to predict how the remaining 10 missing precincts will change things.

Crawford 300 59

Dane 700 73 the 700 may be too high

Dunn 400 55

Jefforson 500 42

Milwaukee 900 57

Taylor 200 39

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:01am

Prossenburg? As close as this is, you actually made it closer.

by kyle flynn on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:03am

Kloppenburg.

She's now ahead by 500 votes.

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:06am

Super. And thnx for the updates.

by kyle flynn on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:09am

This race bothers me.

At least Walker lost something for sure:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/06/chris-abele-milwaukee-county-executive_n_845347.html

by Richard Day on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 10:47am

At 11am edt Kloppenburg is ahead by 500 votes with 5 precincts missing from

missing votes Kloppenburgs %

Jeffersonville 500 42

Juneau 200 52

Milwaukee 900 57

Taylor 200 39

So it comes down to Milwaukee. In an area that large the overall county % may be invalid as a basis for projection. If the 900 missing votes in the other 3 counties vote with the rest of the county Kloppenburg will still have a lead. Milwaukee can then either add to it or possibly flip the overall total to Prosser.

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:20am

Thanks for the excellent updates, Flavius.

by Obey on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:22am

At 11am edt Kloppenburg is ahead by 500 votes with 5 precincts missing from

missing votes Kloppenburgs %

Jeffersonville 500 42

Juneau 200 52

Milwaukee 900 57

Taylor 200 39

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:22am

At 11 30 EDT Kloppenburg's ahead by 300 votes with about 1500 still missing.

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:35am

Well you sure got me feelin better about this.

I would have felt a lot better if she were winning by a million votes.

I thought Wisconsin was really mad at Walker.

by Richard Day on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:37am

At 11 40 Kloppenburg has a 200 vote lead with 3 precincts missing.

1 in Jefferson which represents about 400 votes. She had 42% of the vote in the rest of the county. If that holds true in the missing precinct that will cut her lead to about 150.

2 are in Milwaukee. Probably represents about 600 votes. She had 57% in the rest of the county. If she holds 40% in these remaining precincts she would still have the lead statewide.

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:52am

In a 4 person primary election Prosser got 55%, Kloppenburg, 25 and the other two candidates 20 between them.. That suggested he should have achieved at least 60% in this election. During the campaign Prosser closely identified himself with Walker.. That seems to have cost him ten points. .

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 12:19pm

At noon Kloppenburg had a 220 vote lead with only one precinct missing. It is from rural Jefferson County which Prosser has carried so far by 58 to 42% Jefferson' s precincts average 500, If that applies to the missing precinct Prosser will gain 130 votes leaving Kloppenburg ahead 90 (wow!).

For Prosser to gain enough to completely overtake Kloppenburg her % of the vote in the missing precinct would have to drop from 42% to 27% which would be black swan.

I officially designate Kloppenburg as the winner. Now on the recount.

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 1:01pm

Okay. so this goes to the WI supreme court, right? And say, hopefully, Prosser recuses himself. That leaves 3 dems and 3 republicans. Which means ... what, given the inevitable party-line vote?

by Obey on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 1:04pm

Walker will offer to utilize his experience arbitrating the dispute about government employees right to collective bargaining pointing out that otherwise it will reach the US Supreme Court and we know by now what they'll do.5 to 4.

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 2:06pm

Kloppenburg won by 204 votes

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119308059.html

by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 4:10pm

It's up to Prosser to request a recount. Which I have no doubt he'll be instructed to do by the Kochs who financed his expensive campaign.

The disputes will be referred to a judge chosen by the head of the state supreme court- whom Prosser has referred to as a bitch and has threatened to destroy.

No doubt there's a route by which his/her rulings can be referred to the federal legal system and theoretically all the way to the Supreme Court which IMHO will reject it under a return to its pre Bush v Gore policy of refusing state electoral disputes

by Flavius on Thu, 04/07/2011 - 9:24am

Wisconsin supreme court election

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