When I was thrilling. I said No.

But I was willing."

Cole Porter, I think.

There ought to be a law- in fact there probably  is -against  all those Virginian cases- charges from  rape or wearing a  black face cruelly to make fun of the victims of slavery.. Probably.

 To declare a bias I was a  half hearted guest at a college   Cake Walk . ,A long  way  from Virginia. The performers wore black face or chalky white .Over otherwise outlandish garb .And did various low level  athletics. With loud music. 

If there's someone you're rooting to win something , let me know ,I'll predict their failure and that should put them over the finish line.

I have nothing to add to  what you've read in the last 24 hours. Unlike your immediate correspondent N&C emerged from the "longest shut down in history" with a record of saying A on day one and continuing  to say it until day F- for folded- when Donald  did that.. 

if ever. And certainly the shut down isn't going to be one of those times.

Before you start to convince me  the Democrats have done the right thing , don't bother. They have.

And it's going to cost them votes. Good guys ,to repeat myself , don't etc.

By next Friday if  the laid off  have  missed another  pay check, and there's no announced  end of it , whatever they think about Trump . they'll  be bitter with Pelosi and  Chuck.

As to Trump ? Later. 

The top line is what 538 reported sunday. Where there  is a second line that is what 538 reported today.

All  data is for the Senate unless marked   HO

             Pollster      Number                                                                                                                        ................................polled 

Nelson/Scott

Nov 3      St.Peter's polls          N 48; 49                                                                                               .............. Harris                         46;  48 

Nov 2        Harris                    N  45;  50                                                                                                     ...............Vox populi                    50  50

Following is 538's Sunday data followed by this Morning's numbers if any. If there wasn't a report yesterday

I've posted the Monday data at the bottom.

                  Pollster             Number                                                                                                                                 ______              polled 

        Pollster                         Number                                                                                                                                   ______                          polled

FL      St.Pete's polls               2733    Nelson      48   Scott     49

TX     Change Research         1211    O'Rourke   49   Cruz      49

MO   Remington Research    1429    McCaskill   47    Hawley   47

FL    Targoz                              558   Nelson        45    Scott      49

I've been posting 538's daily forecast for the House and Senate election.

It's aged out of From the Readers so I'll stop.

What I've learned is that nothing has changed much during that week of ten days: 538 calculates the dems

will carry the House and not the Senate. By about  they would have done when I started.

I'll post it again on Election eve.

Take things in order.

o Call your best Jewish friend this morning  to say you're sorry.

o Re this week's victim of Trump's endless  incitement for violence from which he is immune. No need to raise it If  asked , what he tried hasn't worked , let's try something that might.

o And the Caravan . The Caravan! 

It's not going to get here till Dec. You know that If Trump had wanted, knew how to , he would have dealt with it already. He didn't

Say after me . And repeat it if asked. Or not.

"Trump had nothing to do with the pipe bombs

Two reasons: It's true and it's good politics. 

Let's skip to the second. The attack will  be of some benefit of our  net margin. At least to the extent that

some republicans won't vote against us. Maybe go fishing.Good.

If we get some benefit without asking that's good  old American fair minded action by our good old Republican friends.

I'm too tired to continue so I'll post this.And really strongly remind you to say tomorrow

Chance of winning              

women who are raped, Also.

Imagine , something  that united us all. Because we all want to deal with rape.And the current system doesn't. Because in the vast majority of cases  punishing  a perpetrator needs  "corroboration". To avoid the "he said, she said" dead end.

And in that vast majority  needing  corroboration,  means "yawn"..Doesn't happen.

Brettie.

Let's see

The senate is supposed to advise and consent

They're supposed to investigate instead of calling on the FBI

Dr. Ford was a credible witness

And  said a juvenile drunken Kavanaugh attempted to rape her

BTW he likes a beer

But the  democrats asked the nominee whether he tried to rape Dr. Ford  

That was outrageous of them  

And must have been caused by the Clintons

Now about those rabbits........

(I added a sentence-Flav)

but cut the cards.

We're wrong to scorn all our  opponents .On any issue.

  Some maybe.Not all .

There are  right -to- lifers (I'm not) who  support:single payer,.,great mixed public,  schools,  and  labor's right to organize. And joined the rest of the country in believing Dr. Blasey Ford .

Then celebrated yesterday for Brett. .

There are defenders of the police (I'm not. ) who brilliantly advocate for the handicapped.

And all the above might vote right in November . Or not.

spade a spade shall we?  He’s a rapist. End of story. Really everyone looking at the screen last Thursday learned that. Maybe suited them not to use the word , so be it. Didn’t change the underlying reality.

Even dear old David  Brooks.

In proposing the terms  for Dr. Ford's appearance , my guess  is Grasley's  goal was to make her so unsatisfactory an offer that  she'd refuse . He did, but she foiled him by agreeing

I expect her team's minimum objective was that the dems  do their own questioning. And that's  the deal.
I' m not worried by the choice of the Arizona prosecutor. Yes she'll lob softballs to Kavanaugh and attempt to trick Dr. Ford. But this means none of  the loud mouth Reps will be questioning Dr. Ford so she won't lose her composure which would have somewhat undercut her testimony.

I'm forcing myself to write this.

The Ramirez allegation-which I completely believe btw- is itself not grounds to prevents approval.

He behaved in a disgusting manner.  People  sometimes do .18 year old freshman more apt  than many others. Putting aside whether it should be  accepted as evidence  of a disqualifying attitude towards women the event itself was  drunken tawdry and disgraceful. Did I behave disgracefully before I was 20? Don't ask. Did you?

sometime over the weekend.. On whatever terms Atty Katz has been able to obtain by then. 

But only after  Katz first  reveal's the Committee's proposed terms , and  the changes  Ford  requests  , while  saying  she will accept the  Committee's  terms if confirmed  by a majority of the Committee.

Between now and  her Committee  appearance she should be thoroughly  trained. As  Kavanaugh has already been, With "mock" sessions  video'd ,critiqued and repeated as necessary,

by confessing.

Otherwise there is going to be a democratic House after November.

But  if Kavanaugh admits the charge, apologizes and  rends  his garments appropriately there is an army of Republican women who would  feel  they should exercise their mature powers by defying the polls and make their usual comfortable Republican vote. Including the two last hopes in the Senate.

“ that I once withheld important information from readers”John Authers wrote in last weekend’s FT.  “ It was 10 years ago…….I think I did the right thing. But a decade on I need to discuss it”

"The moment came  September 17 2008…..when world finance came closest to...collapse. But I did not write as much.”

Authers authors (if you’ll permit me ) what can be  an influential FT column. If he writes it.