discussion with David Shor; your choice of transcript or audio
New information about the 2020 election reveals a growing shift among Latino voters away from the Democratic party. NPR's Lulu Garcia-Navarro talks with OpenLabs R&D researcher David Shor about. https://t.co/hl5RHzQkT3
Precinct by precinct, you know [....] This was a national trend that happened basically everywhere. And, you know, one of the biggest predictors of switching from voting for Clinton in 2016 to voting in Trump were attitudes toward crime, attitudes toward policing. You know, I think that that's a microcosm for, like, a larger story.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: So when you spent time talking to these folks, what did they tell you was behind that? I mean, was it the sort of racial justice issues that defund the police was just not a popular message to them?
SHOR: I think the simplest way to look at this is ideology. I think that in the last four years, as the clout of college-educated white people in the Democratic Party has increased, you know, the Democratic Party brand has increasingly been associated, you know, with liberalism in a way that it might not have been before. And I think that there's a lot of micro stories. I think that, you know, if you look at defund the police, that's a highly ideological issue where liberals are on one end, and conservatives are on the other. And that really contrasts to other issues, you know, like increasing the minimum wage or getting people health care, where there really are a lot of conservatives who defect and have liberal positions on these issues.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: So the logic, I guess, follows that talking about highly partisan issues like immigration, for example, isn't a winning formula. In fact, most Hispanics wouldn't necessarily put immigration at the top of their list of priorities for reform. Why, then, is the Democratic Party trying so hard to push these messages?
SHOR: It's a great question. You know, I think that there's something that, you know, I've struggled with a lot in my career, and I think there's been a really big change in how Democrats talk that, you know, Democrats historically were seen as this kind of coalition party that, you know, we had this broad mix of conservative Black and Hispanic voters and white liberals, and working-class white people. And, you know, we try to find language that would make everyone happy. But I think with the rise of online donations, with the rise of social media, this has, like, really changed the incentive structure for how a Democratic politician can get ahead. And I think that that's really changed how we talk and how the party is perceived in really fundamental ways.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Well, one party's loss is another's gain. And you've concluded that former President Donald Trump, and by extension Trumpism, has been good for the Republican Party in terms of broadening and diversifying its base [....]
suggestions on how that happened. These talking points help:
The House Republicans have been instructed by leader Kevin McCarthy (informed by the best political advisers money can buy) that these are the top three attacks they should use on Democrats:
The messaging also ascribes "three Ds" to Democrats:
"Defund our police, border patrol, and military."
"Dismantle our social, economic, and political institutions."
"Destroy our small businesses and entrepreneurs with crushing taxes and regulation" — the GOP leader pointed to the destruction of monuments during recent protests.
Those are the negative campaigning recommends, here's the positive:
The plan highlights "three R's" that Republicans should exhaust on the campaign trail this fall.
"Renew the American Dream" (focused on individuals): School choice, workforce training, expanding broadband in rural communities & 5G, protecting individual freedoms.
"Restore our Way of Life" (focused on communities): Defeating the coronavirus, protecting Americans' health, reopening safely and responsibly, ensuring safe neighborhoods.
"Rebuild the Greatest Economy Ever" (a nationwide goal): Tax deregulation, fixing roads & bridges, "America First" and China-critical messaging around trade and supply chains.
some summary clue: they are immigrants who chose to become citizens of this country or of parents who did the same.
contrary to popular left opinion, they are not all anti-Castro Reaganite Cubans in Miami
they aren't into dissing the principles this country was founded on, just the opposite.
they like our police compared to other places.
they like capitalism
they like meritocracy
they don't like white liberals of the type into affirmative action nor Afro-Americans who are into asking for government subsides much less reparations
if Democrats in the statehouses pandered to these folks instead of the elite white woke, Republican efforts to restrict voting would be a big fail:
For the record the negative impact of gerrymandering is ~20X larger than the theoretical upper bound of a massively well funded field program https://t.co/T1LB5OJOkW
Alejandra Gomez was surprised, but pleased, by a flurry of phone calls from the White House in the spring, offering updates on its efforts toward an immigration overhaul. Officials also asked what her Arizona-based advocacy group thought of its work on voting rights and how the pandemic relief package was affecting the state.
“It’s absolutely different than what we’ve seen before,” Ms. Gomez said, comparing the efforts to those of previous Democratic administrations, which typically waited to reach out only during re-election campaigns.
She wasn’t alone. Leaders of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials were taken aback when both the president and vice president committed to speaking at their conference in June, the first time in the event’s decades-long history that the top two White House officials had agreed to speak in a non-election year.
And in Wisconsin, Voces de la Frontera, a group that represents low-wage immigrant workers, was thrilled when the White House reached out to arrange a conversation between their members and Marty Walsh, the secretary of labor, during a swing he made through Milwaukee.
“We had an opportunity for all our members to come listen to him and for him to listen to us,” said Christine Neumann-Ortiz, the executive director of the organization.“That’s a good cue that they haven’t forgotten us after the elections.”
For years, Latino activists and organizers complained that Democratic efforts to woo their community often seemed like an afterthought, a motley collection of Spanish-language advertisements, haphazardly translated campaign literature and a handful of outreach staff members tacked on to campaigns.
Led by a White House that recruited top Latino organizers to high-level staff positions, and with the first lady, Jill Biden, taking a particular interest in reaching out to Latino voters, the new effort bridges the party, encompassing policy, communications and political organizing. The outreach encompasses a broad number of community leaders and social media stars, such as Eugenio Derbez, a Mexican comedian, and meetings with Hispanic faith leaders.
The efforts reflect how vital Latino voters are to the party’s success, but also the extent of the work needed to win back a group that makes up nearly 20 percent of the population. Democrats have long viewed these voters — a diverse group that includes dozens of countries of origin and a wide range of socioeconomic status — as a mostly monolithic bloc that could be taken for granted, operating as though the most important factor was simply turnout; if Latino voters cast ballots, the reasoning went, they will vote Democratic.
But 2020, with a record 18.7 millions ballots cast by Latino voters, proved just how wrong that theory was. Though roughly 60 percent chose President Biden, the movement toward Donald J. Trump plunged Democrats into a period of soul-searching.
While there has not been a conclusive detailed analysis, exit polling and focus groups from both parties show that Mr. Trump won over Hispanic voters without a college degree who were critical of shutdown orders amid the pandemic and believed the former president would be a better steward of the economy. Republicans also did well with Cubans, Venezuelans and Colombians in South Florida who viewed Democrats as sympathetic to socialism, as well as Mexican Americans in South Texas and other regions who backed his border policies. Evangelicals made up a sizable portion of Latino Trump supporters based on their opposition to abortion.
The Democratic Party is now trying to use data to better understand Latino voters, and to try to develop a more granular understanding of how different national backgrounds, economic status and other factors change voting behavior.
As a candidate and president-elect, Mr. Biden has had uneven success with Hispanic outreach [,,,,]
continues at length with stuff like this
Democrats’ efforts are also geared toward persuading voters to see benefits of the party’s policies, particularly in key places like South Florida and the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, where more defections could cost them congressional seats
The Defund the Police movement,which aims to shift resources from police to other social services, has made some Latino immigrants wary, too, said Gabby Franco, a Venezuelan firearms instructor who has worked with Latinos in many of her classes.
Many come from countries with high crime rates and have firsthand experience with underfunded police, she added. "It's like, 'For me to pursue my dreams, I need to make sure that I stay alive,'" Franco told Axios. That means making the most of the rights they may not have had in their home countries.
from
Heightened violence, including new homicide records, a rise in anti-Asian hate and national attention to police brutality, have pushed more Black, Latino and Asian Americans to seek out firearms as a form of self-protection.
Comments
AGAIN, I refer to Carville in April:
JAMES CARVILLE: “WOKENESS IS A PROBLEM AND WE ALL KNOW IT”
by artappraiser on Tue, 07/20/2021 - 4:36pm
suggestions on how that happened. These talking points help:
much more detail on a this long thread of mine
ASSISTANCE IN UNDERSTANDING THOSE UNWOKE HISPANICS IN PLACES LIKE THE BRONX
By artappraiser on Thu, 03/04/2021 - 5:03pm |
some summary clue: they are immigrants who chose to become citizens of this country or of parents who did the same.
contrary to popular left opinion, they are not all anti-Castro Reaganite Cubans in Miami
they aren't into dissing the principles this country was founded on, just the opposite.
they like our police compared to other places.
they like capitalism
they like meritocracy
they don't like white liberals of the type into affirmative action nor Afro-Americans who are into asking for government subsides much less reparations
by artappraiser on Fri, 07/23/2021 - 7:08pm
As that Arnie message noted, California's economy still exceeds the rest of the world. Wonder how California Hispanics feel.
by PeraclesPlease on Sat, 07/24/2021 - 1:31am
AZ voters howzit goin?
by PeraclesPlease on Sat, 07/24/2021 - 7:05am
if Democrats in the statehouses pandered to these folks instead of the elite white woke, Republican efforts to restrict voting would be a big fail:
by artappraiser on Sat, 07/24/2021 - 2:24pm
I think the Democratic Party might just move wherever the tech industry moves itself to.
by Orion on Sat, 07/24/2021 - 2:30pm
Latino Voters Moved Toward Republicans. Now Biden Wants Them Back.
Did Democrats take the Hispanic vote for granted in 2020? Some in the party think they did, and can’t afford the same mistakes going forward
by Jennifer Medina and Lisa Lerer @ NYTimes.com, July 27, 2021, 3:00 a.m. ET
continues at length with stuff like this
by artappraiser on Tue, 07/27/2021 - 6:47am
from
by artappraiser on Sun, 04/24/2022 - 11:32am