[POLLS] Powered by trust on the pandemic, Biden leads by 12 points nationwide

By artappraiser on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 7:41pm |

The new ABC/Post poll finds 9% of registered Republicans are supporting Joe Biden for president.

If this number holds Trump is TOAST. #RepublicansForBiden #CountryOverParty https://t.co/aWvIiPyLeE
— Republicans for Joe Biden (@RepsForBiden) October 11, 2020

URL:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/powered-trust-pandemic-biden-leads-12-points-nationwide/story?id=73528233

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Oct. 6-9 news thread on POLLS is here: [POLLS] BIDEN BOLSTERS LEAD OVER TRUMP IN MICHIGAN AFTER FIRST DEBATE

by artappraiser on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 7:49pm

Florida by local Fox station:

FOX 35 EXCLUSIVE: InsiderAdvantage poll gives Trump 3 point edge over Biden in Florida https://t.co/OVw3o3DLZX
— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) October 11, 2020

fox is touting this poll showing trump +3 with seniors in florida. but this is a poll with gop registration +1, but more importantly, trump won seniors in florida by 17 in 2016. if he's really only +3 there, he'd be in trouble. https://t.co/PXRlUMPad9
— Oliver Willis (@owillis) October 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 7:55pm

Poll: Majority still fears virus exposure as Trump says not to be 'afraid.’
65% of American adults say they are worried that someone in their family will be exposed to the virus, according to new data from the @NBCNews|SurveyMonkey Weekly Tracking Poll.https://t.co/4JMGOkXSHN
— Shomari Stone (@shomaristone) October 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 7:56pm

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's final polling average was Clinton 45.7%, Trump 41.8%. Today, it's Biden 52.2%, Trump 41.9%.

But beyond deficit, even more damning for Trump is the 5.9% undecided/3rd party share - less than half of 12.5% share four years ago. Far fewer late deciders. https://t.co/4dfaurPIKd
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 7:59pm

Nate Silver retweeted this 2 hrs. ago:

Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936. https://t.co/HYqd0z08uR
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 11, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 8:06pm

doh, literally decades of practice, including learning the hard way the wrong ways you can do it:

What if Biden is actually good at this and Twitter, whose cognoscenti insisted for the entire primary that he wasn't, is actually bad at this?

Just a thought. pic.twitter.com/xCJgkuEES2
— (((Yair Rosenberg))) (@Yair_Rosenberg) October 12, 2020

by artappraiser on Mon, 10/12/2020 - 8:34pm

The Upshot on Today’s Polls, Analysis of the day in polls, from now until Election Day by Nate Cohn @ NYTimes.com, 3 hours ago 23 days until Election Day

A 12-point lead, but with questions.

There’s a split in national and state polls.

[....]

Spotting the state-national split. One emerging pattern has been that the president isn’t doing quite as poorly in state polls as he is in national ones, and that trend continued this weekend.

An easy way to see this national/battleground split: Compare the numbers in the far-right column with the other numbers in the tables above; the column shows how the poll findings compare with the 2016 election result. As you can see, in today’s national polls, Joe Biden is running about 10 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s election result, but the battleground state polls are typically shifting several points less than that, which is why you see lots of 6s and 7s in that column above.

That smaller difference qualifies as relatively good news for Mr. Trump. If he’s down by only six points in Michigan, then you can still imagine how a late break his way and another polling error might help him squeak out a win. That’s not so different from what happened four years ago. But if he’s down by 10, as the national polls suggest, he will need something that goes well beyond what happened four years ago.

State of the race. President Trump is running out of time to mount a comeback, so every day that the averages stay where they are is a bad day for him.

[....]

by artappraiser on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 10:59pm

What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020

We took a poll of pollsters (unscientifically) to see what changes they’ve made since 2016 and what they’re worried about in 2020. https://t.co/wA5k8V2aGL
— Geoffrey Skelley (@geoffreyvs) October 13, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/13/2020 - 9:38am

Nate Silver:

On the one hand, I'm still not convinced that state polls are consistent with the 10-11 point Biden lead shown by national polls.

On the other hand, this is still a very robust position for Biden in state polls.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 13, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/13/2020 - 9:39am

Pew-president by religious affiliation:

Pew poll has Biden 70-27 over Trump among Jewish voters https://t.co/LdEhbudmDr
— Jacob Kornbluh (@jacobkornbluh) October 13, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 10/13/2020 - 7:58pm

[POLLS] Powered by trust on the pandemic, Biden leads by 12 points nationwide

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