Back in the doom-and-gloom days of...um...last week, there were a number of stalwart cheerleaders at TPM Cafe who airily assured us that Obama had everything under control. While I wasn't particularly concerned about the polls--I've seen enough elections not to get my knickers in a twist over weekly fluctuations--I had the sense that at least some of those cheerleaders would insist that all was well up to the moment of crushing defeat. The knowing assurances that Obama's hesitance to attack was part of his rope-a-dope strategy seemed the most suspect. I understand how rope-a-dope pertains to be boxing, but elections? Did these people expect McCain to wear himself out from too many negative attacks. Did they think the Republicans would run out of smears? What exactly was to be gained by holding back early and attacking later?

I've changed my mind. Whether by design or fortune, Obama gained by delaying retaliation. For one thing, McCain's attack ads, from Paris Hilton to kindergarten sex ed, have not been very effective. On July 30th, the day the celebrity ad came out, Obama led McCain in Real Clear Politic's aggregated polls 47/44. Today, Obama leads 52/48. More tellingly, Obama's favorable/unfavorable ratings haven't moved more than a couple of points since July, suggesting that the wild poll swings have had more to do with the conventions and Sarah Palin than McCain's attacks.

That's the rope part. What about the dope? The McCain campaign has obviously not run out of smears, but in running a series of dirty attack ads, they have squandered a valuable asset--moral high ground. At the beginning of the campaign, the two candidates were presented my the media as two honorable guys who run would clean, substantive campaigns. No longer. While Obama has lost some credibility in the mudslinging, it is McCain who has emerged as the bad guy in this fight, as previously fawning journalists have come down hard on his lies. Regardless of how this narrative translates into polls, it offers a clear strategic victory to the Obama campaign. McCain will now face more scrutiny from the press, he will have more trouble convincing voters that he represents a change from politics as usual, and in a mud-fight, he will be more likely to be seen as the instigator. Obama, on the other hand, now has a free hand to attack McCain without risk of tainting his own message of change. Had he attacked harder, earlier, and dirtier, the media would have been far more likely to declare both candidates equally tainted.

I'm not sure whether Obama intentionally suckered McCain into sacrificing his once vaunted credibility or whether he just got lucky, but it's worth noting that this is not the first time that Obama has managed to present himself as the sweet-natured hero reluctantly retaliating against a devious, Machiavellian villain.

And to the cheerleaders, if this is what you meant by rope-a-dope (be honest), kudos to you.