MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
This is bizarre to say the least?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pew_polls
I have been reading polls daily at TPM & HUFFPO and a number of other sites and I always see PEW Poll.
I do not understand this poll since it has a last date of 9/16/12.
So this poll does not even take into consideration the recent 'video' of death.
Anyway the MSNBC/WJ poll was giving us a five percent margin with the same date?
That is 9/16/12!
I think this is newsworthy whether you believe it or not.
I bring this up because over the last ten days the 'poll average' as far as electoral votes is larger with HUFFPO than TPM.
I have never seen this before.
I mean HUFFPO has been giving Obama like 316 electoral votes vs. TPM which gives him around 280?
Anyway, I thought this was newsworthy.
Comments
Here is the direct link to Pew's poll report (rather than just the Pew home page, which will change in a day or two):
http://www.people-press.org/2012/09/19/obama-ahead-with-stronger-support...
by artappraiser on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 5:48pm
Thanks Art....I just am amazed!
If it changes in a day or two it will eventually hit 9/18/12.
We shall see!
by Richard Day on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 5:57pm
Pollsters use different methodologies, Richard. They have different sampling methods, they have different predictions about what the electorate will look like on election day so they poll different proportions of people. And then there's randomness built right into polling. Hence, "margin of error." A 5% lead means, "If our model is right, Obama is ahead between 2% and 8%. An 8% lead means, "If our model is right, Obama is ahead between 4.5% and 11.5%"
Poll averages and prospective electoral maps also differ, because they include different polls, weight specific polls differently (How much weight to give an everyday tracking poll? How much to give other polls?) and so on. The electoral maps have to decide how far ahead a candidate has to be to move a state's votes out of the "tossup" column.
by Doctor Cleveland on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 6:03pm
Thanks Doctor.
I was hoping for some reaction.
But PEW is so outside the 'normal' that I was astounded, to say it again.
Anyway, I follow this crap like some football gambling beer drinking idiot follows ESPN and gambles in Vegas via the web....
I was just taken by this one poll that was taken before the video epiphany.
We shall see!
by Richard Day on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 6:22pm
by artappraiser on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 8:20pm
I've concluded TPM's PollTracker is far from the gold standard, Richard. In the days immediately following the Democratic convention, it actually showed a big increase in Romney's share of popular voting intention.
This was such an outlier that I thought the site had simply got the Obama and Romney figures reversed. Enough readers wrote in that Josh Marshall wrote an entry trying to explain (unsuccessfully, I think) how different methodologies yield different results over the short term. I don't know how, but I think their model is simply flawed. I'd trust Nate Silver's 538 blog over TPM any day.
by acanuck on Thu, 09/20/2012 - 2:10pm
From Nate's blog today
by Elusive Trope on Thu, 09/20/2012 - 2:29pm
538 rocks!
In 2008 he was so damn close to the results.
Rasmussen and Fox are never to be believed.
With the exception of the results for the last ten days!
Anyway, I have seen nothing comparable to 538 and that geek is a genius!
by Richard Day on Thu, 09/20/2012 - 4:18pm