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A disturbing truth, at least for the Republican establishment, has settled in. Donald Trump is for real and Republican voters see him as the same. Writing for Vox, Ezra Klein declared that “the Republican Party doesn't want to believe that its voters agree with Trump. But they do.”

Klein points out that all the begrudging feelings that Republicans had for Trump were aired out during that first debate. Trump was challenged on abortion, his sexist statements toward women, immigration and his support for single payer health care. He didn't backtrack on any of them and the result in polls was Trump at 25%, with the very closest only being Ben Carson at 12%.

The reality is staring right back at us. Republican voters like Donald Trump.

As Klein notes, Trump may simply know the Republican base better than Republican elites do. Elites in centers of Republican power want entitlement cuts. They want the government to work for them, for the wealthy, and to continue with tax breaks, military interventions and for immigration policy that doesn't necessarily guarantee an easy path way to citizenship but an easy way for workers from developing countries to work for little for large corporations.

The enthusiasm for such politics on the part of Republican voters has only come at the point by which an average person could have still benefited from such policies. During times of prosperity, a middle class person may have gotten a good tax break, the military provided a decent career option and easy credit seemed like a possibility that could obscure the need for real financial help, the sort that is usually provided by the state.

These aren't times of prosperity and haven't been for a few years. Even the most conservative individuals may be aware of the reality that they may not have health insurance without a program like Obamacare, they may not have money to pay rent without Social Security and they may not be able to pay for medicine without Medicaid. Klein notes that polls indicate that Republicans don't want cuts to Social Security, Medicare or other entitlement programs but they clearly want those programs working for just them, the ones “entitled” to them, and not perceived outsiders like undocumented immigrants.

A more social way of doing things is what America is demonstrably heading towards. It's not a mistake that Trump on the right and Bernie Sanders on the left are surging forward, while the like of Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush or Scott Walker, establishment candidates long associated with how things have been for a while, languish behind. These are different flavors of what voters clearly want.

The only right wing politics that is going to work with that realization is Trump's version of xenophobia and sexism. Trump has been in the public light and been financially successful for decades – he knows what is going on in Republican minds, possibly more than elites do. When he says he'll improve Obamacare with something better (whatever that is) or saying we “have to help people who can't help themselves” (something he said during the Republican debate), along with comments about deporting undocumented imigrants or a barrage of sexist comments, he is somewhat ingeniously tapping in to raw fears of the most vulnerable in this country.

Undocumented workers from Latin America do have advantages that others in this country do not. The cost of living is not as high in Mexico, so what an undocumented immigrant may make here can be sent home, a place he or she may return to, and provide for them and their families more than an American citizen would ever make. In the mind of an economically vulnerable conservative, a “guest worker” program is actually a bitter insult – if someone is only temporarily working in this country, they are making a greater level of money for a situation they will return to, whereas an American citizen has to work for the exorbitantly expensive lifestyle of the United States.

Immigration is just a part of living in a country, however, and it's been a political hot potato forever and in many different places. It increased as an issue in Europe as decolonization occurred and many people started moving to a European continent much less blessed by the exploitation of its colonies and, likewise, as the American empire falls in to disrepair, it is a resurgent political issue that a man like Trump is effectively exploiting. Trump is much more of a figure from a European right wing party like the National Front in France or Silvio Berlusconi in Italy – nativist, reactionary but pushing the idea of a welfare state for those born in that country. America for Americans. There's a reason why figures like them never made it in American politics. American politics is about big business, especially for the Republican party and being anti-immigrant, especially anti Hispanic immigrants – the largest mass of immigrants to this country, is extremely anti-business. The Republican party, with the leadership of Karl Rove, put a great deal of effort in to courting Hispanics and it worked great for George W. Bush. Without Hispanics, Democrats may maintain the White House.

Meanwhile, we are in an era in which women are experiencing more wealth and influence than ever before. Pew Research Center conducted a poll called “A Gender Reversal on Career Expectations” which indicated that far more women were now saying that “being successful in a high paying career or profession” was important to them.

It's largely an untapped political resource but I am almost certain that Trump is aware that there are a great deal of men bustling with resentment at the success of women. I've been around some men who have loused in to a sad array of cuss words as they've heard “gender inequality” said on the radio. Trump is not a stupid person, even if his message is diluted, and his attacks on Megyn Kelly were not an off the cuff mistake – Kelly is a visibly successful woman and his harsh words toward her certainly resonated with some voters.

Attacks on Trump are falling flat. One of his harshest opponents in his party has been Kentucky senator Rand Paul, who challenged him a great deal during the Republican debates. Only a year ago, Paul was seen a presidential contender – he was at the forefront of the debate over police militarization with a widely acclaimed and daring essay on the topic for Time magazine and was making appearances on shows like Real Time with Bill Maher and in liberal enclaves like Berkeley, California in which he cast himself as a Republican with crossover appeal.

Despite trying to cast himself as “a different kind of Republican,” in the face of Trump, Paul was an elite. He was on that stage thanks to the privilege of being the son of a career politician and he had been bankrolled, along with most libertarians, by the Koch brothers. He had a “hard time” in that Republican debate, as Trump joked to him during it, in the face of a candidate with far more celebrity appeal than he and apparently stronger finger on the pulse of Republican voters.

There is no guarantee that Trump will get the nomination. Despite his high poll numbers, there could be some sort of turn around if elites decide to engage resources in to figures like Scott Walker or Ben Carson. However, nomination or none, Trump is a figure here to stay and whose popular bears an imprint on the Republican party that will leave it looking very different from what it was before.