Is John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin really the "game changer" he says it is? Not if Obama's campaign is smart enough to game this out and see where it all leads.

With his choice of Palin, experience fades as McCain's primary leverage against Obama. In its place, McCain now positions himself and Palin as the true agents of Change. Yes, the staunchly pro-life, pro-gun Palin energizes the conservative base. But McCain also is betting that swing voters will be attracted to having a woman vice president and to the GOP's own brand of Change: two nominees known as anti-establishment reformers, keen on increasing domestic oil production and aggressive on using military force.

So the the primary danger and opportunity for both parties boils down to this: In a time of wars and economic upheaval, whoever wears the mantle of Change on Nov. 4 will have the advantage. In an election that is the Democrats' to lose, Obama cannot afford to yield his theme of Change. McCain, on the other hand, must run against the Republican Party as much as against the Democrats to capture that flag.

Lesser points of contention abound. Palin's common touch may help reinforce the charge of elitism against Obama and blunt the "out of touch" countercharge against McCain. As a result, Obama and Biden will have to work extra hard on populist economic messages that tie McCain to Bush and Palin to the interests of Big Oil.

Palin's lack of foreign policy experience and Biden's surplus of the same means the tickets are relatively balanced on the issue of who's ready to be commander-in-chief. Yet McCain, by virtue of his ex-POW status, holds a high card not easily trumped by Obama, particularly because decisions at the voting booth usually come down to the choices for president, not vice president. Most voters will choose between Obama and McCain, not Biden and Palin.

Obama cannot afford to cede the issue of foreign policy and national security to McCain. Which candidate voters see as strongest and most capable will factor heavily in the exit polls. Both parties know this. As a result, Obama will have to push hard on the value of judgment and leadership. He must call into question McCain's positions. He must continue running on his own record of judgments versus McCain's record of support for the Iraq war, rash decisions (including the choice of Palin), and bellicose rhetoric.

What then, is the way forward for Obama in light of the McCain/Palin ticket? To put it bluntly: More of the same. Obama need not change his basic message. He must reinforce it. Because Change and Hope are under attack from false reformers. Because he and Biden represent a combined 40 years of national experience in foreign policy, whereas McCain and Palin's similar experience comes down to McCain's 26 years.

Palin is no game changer. She is a mirror of McCain who energizes the base and reinforces the reformist message that threatens to split the center. Obama's task now is to win the center. His base will remain energized if he is careful in how he keeps Hope and Change alive.