The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Bernie or Bust?

    The "Bernie or Bust!" movement asks Sanders supporters to commit to vote for only Bernie in the general election. If he's not on the ballot in November, busters say they won't vote for President or will write in Bernie's name even though this could lead to the election of "il Duce" Donald Trump or Torquemada Ted Cruz. I am not a buster, although I certainly understand the movement's appeal.

    By contrast, I condemned Ralph Nader in 2000 as soon as he indicated he was running as a third-party candidate and continue to revile the man for what he did to our nation.  But there are significant differences between this year's election and Bush v. Gore. Most importantly, Al Gore was almost certainly a better Presidential candidate than Nader. He was also about as liberal a candidate as we could hope to elect at that point. He was more progressive than the Democratic President he served for eight years, refreshingly decent and honest, and an ardent environmentalist.

    Hillary Clinton, by contrast, was the most conservative Democratic Presidential candidate in this election cycle. She is decidedly hawkish, has a well-deserved reputation for dishonesty, and is an economic neo-liberal. She is exactly what this country doesn't need.

    So, I get "Bernie or Bust" which claims up to 1/3 of Sanders supporters. My sense, though, is that most Democratic pundits and insiders don't take them too seriously. After all, say the women and men making rounds on NPR, CNN, MSNBC, Clinton's PUMAs in 2008 ultimately didn't amount to anything at all. Liberal radio host Randi Rhodes who supported Obama ardently in 2008 and never missed an opportunity to slam Hillary - sometimes profanely - may have nailed it when she said "you fall in love during the primaries and you fall in line before the general election."

    Of course, there are important distinctions between the 2008 edition of the Democratic primaries and the 2016 campaign. Eight years ago the top two candidates differed little on the most important issue in that election season. Both promised healthcare reform and their plans were so similar that newspapers had to take pains to identify salient differences.

    I asked a disgruntled Clinton supporter in the summer of 2008 to identify policy differences between Clinton and Barack Obama. She couldn't do it, although she sputtered that nobody could have reasonably thought Obama would be a better President than Clinton so the fact that he won proved his supporters were sexist. It didn't take her long to endorse Obama.

    By contrast, there are broad and obvious differences between Clinton and Sanders both on the issues and in the way they're campaigning. To vote for Clinton, Sanders supporters will have to move quite a distance from the pro-peace, pro-worker, pro-environment, pro-economic justice candidate. So, I get "Bernie or Bust".

    I won't join them.  If Clinton is the Democratic nominee, as expected, I plan to vote for her because the Republican alternative will likely to do much more harm to our nation. Still, "Bernie or Bust" has good reasons to reject Clinton. In order to prevent the national nightmare that a Trump or Cruz Presidency would induce, Clinton must therefore demonstrate that, if elected, she will not govern as the neo-con corporatist Bernie's busters fear.

    How can she do this? She should right now commit to a truly progressive agenda by naming the people she intends to appoint to be her top domestic and foreign policy advisers. Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or Sherrod Brown are all good choices for the domestic job. If she doesn't want to pluck a sitting Democratic Senator from Congress, Robert Reich might be a good choice, although his latest piece at Salon bizarrely questioned whether free trade is really as bad as its detractors claim. Perhaps a labor leader would be the ideal choice.

    Clinton should promise to push hard for a $15 minimum wage, higher top marginal tax rates on the wealthy, not to sign off on any more free trade deals and to renegotiate or renounce the ones currently in effect.

    Clinton should name as her putative top foreign policy adviser a national figure who has bucked the neo-con trend over the past 20 years. Not too many come to mind. Lincoln Chafee might be a good choice. I'd plump for a retired officer like Colonel Ann Wright who has been consistently correct on foreign policy over the past two decades.

    There are other actions Clinton can take to demonstrate she has forsworn the DLC/Third Way Wall Street moderates.  Breaking decisively from allies Rahm Emanuel and Debbie Wasserman Schultz would be a good start as would cutting ties with David "Hitman" Brock' and his "Correct the Record" SuperPac.

    Sanders die-hards may ultimately support Clinton but she must woo them.  Her stated goal Monday of taking America's relationship with Israel to the next level made the task much more difficult.  If Clinton continues to ignore the legitimate concerns of "Sanders or Bust!", if she signals contempt for its adherents as she did at AIPAC, she risks losing a significant number of Sanders supporters in the general election. Should this happen and our nation devolves into fascism or theocracy, Clinton will bear a portion of the responsibility.

    Comments

    So "financial businesses" include National Multifamily Housing Council and Commercial Real Estate Women Network ??? WTF? And most of the money was what Bill earned while Hillary was SoS, hardly a position to help Wall Street or real estate companies, no?

    Imports are 1/6 the size of our domestic economy, exports 1/7. If you put high tariffs on, Americans will pay more for everyday products, and other countries will retaliate, lowering our exports. due to higher prices, lowering demand. Increasing labor costs also increases the price of our exports and goods consumed internally, lowering demand and sales and hurting businesses. So companies employ fewer workers and unemployment rises. And our increased wages match the increased cost of goods. Provided we still have jobs. But we already established 40% dont have traditional fulltime jobs, and that most have <$1000 buffer for emergencies and median pay of $12/hour going to $15 minimum may mean $120-$280/week (but then higher taxes). Hope higher prices dont exceed that.

    Now, work is based on productivity and cost, not cost per hour, and that productivity includes industry clusters, infrastructure, training, access to skilled labor, etc. Productivity and pay typically correlate because pay rises to reach productivity-pay parity, though this equilibrium can take time to hit, such as Chinese pay and production only now starting to hit the boundary after 20 years, thanks to the opening of a protected economy and much higher population. So just as we're starting to have less to fear from Chinese competition, we're going to put up walls again. Brilliant.


    Good catch, PP. You really have to go to the links that Hal puts up to prove a point he is trying to make.  When I pointed out that his comment about Hillary being hated was not supported by the link, he said I was posing a "gotcha question."  


    CVille Dem - previously you wrote here when I didn't respond quickly enough to your claim that we couldn't replicate the free European university model because our expenses would be higher since  more Americans go to college:

    I can't help but point out that you never responded to my rejoinders about the link you provided about Hillary being the second-most hated person in this race.  If anyone is interested, I'll just mention that Hal linked to an article that had no objective information about "hate level," but he insisted it was proof because the author used the term "hate" in the first sentence.  It was a completely disingenuous (dishonest) response, and you, Hal, knew it.

    Also, the "free college for everyone" is a completely dishonest claim, which I went into some detail above.

    i guess you just can't bear to respond when you know you're wrong.  That's ok. I knew that already.

    Since then I wholly debunked your claim by noting that Denmark and Sweden which do not charge citizens tuition have a higher percentage of college grads than we do as does France which charges a few paltry hundred dollars in tuition. 

    Still, you haven't acknowledged error.  I guess you just can't bear to respond when you know you're wrong.  That's ok.  I knew that already.

    Oh and PP's supposed gotcha is totally off-base as well as I note in response to his most recent post here.


    ???


    From "Business Insider"  

    http://www.businessinsider.com/how-do-european-countries-afford-free-col...

    An excerpt from "Free College in Europe Really Isn't Free"

    I did not excerpt the part about the level of taxation in each country because it would have been just too much to put here, but is a big issue in terms of being able to deliver free tuition.

    European countries also differ substantively from the US in terms of the percentage of college attendees that their debt free models serve.

    "Germany has a lower percentage of students go on to college than we have here in the US," Mark Huelsman, a senior policy analyst at think tank Demos, told ATTN.

    The World Bank reports tertiary school enrollment by country, and the data supports Huelsman's claim. The World Bank defines tertiary school broadly, and includes universities, colleges, technical training institutes, community colleges, nursing schools, and research laboratories. 

    In 2012, the tertiary enrollment for European countries that offer debt free college, and the US, was as follows:

    Tertiary school enrollmentWorld Bank2012 tertiary school enrollment

     

    The percentage is calculated by taking tertiary enrollment as a percentage of the total population of students who graduated within the last five years. For all countries, with the exception of Finland, the US has a much higher percentage of students who have enrolled in post-high school education. This will likely add a level of complexity to debt-free college plans in the US.

    So, my point was that fewer people would be admitted to colleges, and except in Finland, which is tiny, you can see that is true.  If the percentage of college graduates is what you are arguing, that percentage is based on an already smaller "n" of college students percentage-wise.  Hal, are you really trying to say that Bernie will be able to get "free college for all?"


    As of 2013, we had fallen behind Korea, Belarus, and Finland,  were tied with Australia and Spain at 89% of Americans with some level of "tertiary education," and were barely ahead of Denmark at 82%.  Many Americans attend private colleges which Sanders does not include as part of the free education model.  So we would still have fewer tuition-free students than many of these other countries.  Moreover, in America many fewer students graduate from college so the percentage receiving a tuition-free education at any one time would be less than in European countries.  The percentage of college grads is higher in a number of European countries than it is here because so many American students cannot afford to stay in school or are ill-prepared when they arrive. 


    I should add that you make a legitimate point about the cost of "tuition-free" schools when you note that more Americans attend college at some point than residents in most other countries.  I don't think it's dispositive but it definitely made me think.  In fact, for some time, I have argued against tuition-free schools.  A higher education provides specific value to its recipient and general value to the populace at large.  Accordingly, those educated at 2 and 4-year schools without charge are receiving a windfall.

    On the other hand, our current system is wholly unworkable as far too many Americans are priced out of a higher education and the remarkably high costs of an elite education which leads directly to the highest-paying jobs help ensconce a permanent American aristocracy. 

    In the end, I support Oregon's experimental "Pay It Forward" plan which duns students after they leave school a small percentage of their annual income for 20 years.


    One more point.  Here's an article from the Atlantic arguing we would save money if we replaced the current hodgepodge of federal education assistance programs with tuition-free state schools.


    I.   The investment banks.

    I originally noted that Clinton " is in the pocket of investment banks to the tune of tens of millions of dollars".  Since you have only heard Clinton has taken millions not tens of millions from Wall Street financiers, you sensed blood in the water pouncing with the question "where did you get the "tens of millions from?"

    My link to an AP story that identified since 2001 $35 million from various financial concerns going into the Clintons' pockets included non-investment bank contributions.  Again, you gloated.  Gleefully you thought I've got him now rather than gee maybe it's not a great idea to put back in the White House people who are so beholden to the most damaging economic actors in our entire economy.  So your reaction is a purely personal technical one that fundamentally ignores the bigger picture.  It's also wrong.

    Read the AP article carefully.  Here are some nuggets that demonstrate clearly what I wrote is accurate:

    During "a nearly 15-year period . . . Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, made at least $35 million by giving 164 speeches to financial services, real estate and insurance companies after leaving the White House in 2001, according to an Associated Press analysis of public disclosure forms and records released by her campaign."

    "From 2009 to 2014, the couple made $26 million from 109 appearances sponsored by banks, insurance companies, hedge funds, private equity firms and real estate businesses, and at those industries' conferences and before their trade organizations."

    "Since her husband left the White House, the family's charity, the Clinton Foundation, has collected millions more from the industry, with companies such as Barclay's, Citigroup, Fidelity, HSBC and Goldman Sachs listed as donating as much as $5 million each."

    If this story isn't enough, here's one from the Washington Post that I did not cite earlier. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/clinton-money/  The Post article examines funds raised by the Clintons over the past 41 years.  Here's a gem:

    "They made historic inroads on Wall Street, pulling in at least $69 million in political contributions from the employees and PACs of banks, insurance companies, and securities and investment firms. Wealthy hedge fund managers S. Donald Sussman and David E. Shaw are among their top campaign supporters, having given more than $1 million each."

    Here's one more story from the Observer last month.  Highlights:

    "Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to Ms. Clinton throughout her career. The Clinton Foundation has received between $1 million and $5 million in donations from Goldman Sachs, Barclays and the Citi Foundation; between $500,000 and $1 million from Bank of America Foundation, Citigroup, HSBC and UBS, and hundreds of thousands from other large banks."

    "A few weeks into Ms. Clinton’s position as Secretary of State in 2009, she helped UBS settle a lawsuit with the IRS, saving them millions of dollars. Shortly after, her husband received $1.5 million in speaking fees from UBS, while donations from UBS to the Clinton Foundation increased exponentially."

    II. Creating jobs

    You worry that tariffs could start a trade war which would hurt our export businesses.  Fine.  We have a massive trade deficit, i.e., we import far more than we export.  Moreover, we tend to import labor-intensive products.  The loss of export sector jobs will always be more than offset by the gain in import sector jobs.

    You worry that a trade war would lead to higher prices for consumers.  You are correct.  This would happen.  But wages for Americans would rise more than prices would since labor costs reflect only a portion of the cost of any particular item.  Other manufacturing costs, like transportation expenses, would actually drop if we produced here.  So working Americans would see an increased standard of living.

    You claim a higher minimum wage would hurt employment.  That is correct if we don't impose tariffs on goods imported from low-wage nations.

    Thus, all signs strongly support imposing tariffs that make the cost of finished imported products more expensive than the cost of domestically-manufactured ones.

     


    I've been through Hillary's speech list before and noted that a reasonably low percent was controversial. No need to repeat.

    Some of the economic issues I address in my latest diary (the Next Revolution)


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