The places & demographic groups with the biggest swings for & against Trump

By artappraiser on Wed, 12/16/2020 - 11:12pm |

SUPER DUPER highly recommended overall national election analysis summary from final numbers, in highly readable form with plenty of charts!

by Jed Kolko and Toni Monkovic @ The Upshot @ NYTimes.com. Dec. 7

With most of the slow-to-report votes tallied, we finally have a clearer picture of last month’s presidential results. Despite the high polarization in the country that carried over to the reaction to the results — with 70 percent to 80 percent of Republicans still saying they disbelieve that Joe Biden won — in some respects the vote itself was less polarized than in 2016.

Compared with 2016, in 2020 there was less difference by race or ethnicity, and urban areas and suburban areas voted more alike. But the economic and education partisan divides widened. Mr. Biden gained in well-educated suburbs and exurbs, often in places that have tended to vote Republican in recent decades, like the Atlanta, Dallas and Phoenix areas.

In addition to these broad patterns, some specific shifts reflected local political loyalties.

As of Monday, reporting was complete enough to look closely at nearly all individual counties and metropolitan areas (which consist of one or more counties). Though some important patterns may show up only in more fine-grained precinct or individual survey data, counties make it easy to compare the entire country, over time, though many lenses.

These near-final county totals confirm a few patterns in the 2020 vote [....]

URL:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/upshot/trump-election-vote-shift.html

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and here's an interesting outside-the-box take:

There are more Trump voters in California than Texas, more Biden voters in Texas than NY, more Trump voters in NY than Ohio, more Biden voters in Ohio than Massachusetts, more Trump voters in Massachusetts than Mississippi, and more Biden voters in Mississippi than Vermont.
— Randall Munroe (@xkcd) December 16, 2020

see whole thread for his map and other comments (retweeted by Yglesias)

by artappraiser on Wed, 12/16/2020 - 11:52pm

“Now you’ve got to go from people who are Republicans who voted for Biden to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and spanning that is really hard" --@owasow on the inherent tensions in Dem coalition over issues like defunding police https://t.co/KiuWAknLFC
— Trip Brennan (@tripbrennan) December 16, 2020

article is

What We Know—and Don't Know—About "Defund the Police" and the 2020 Elections

From Joe Biden to AOC, "defund the police" is already at the center of the 2021 Democratic civil war. Does anyone really know if it made a difference?

by Trip Brennan December 16, 2020

by artappraiser on Thu, 12/17/2020 - 1:39am

Trump's Latino gains suggest a key progressive theory of politics is wrong

White backlash or education polarization?

Matthew YglesiasDec 17

[....] And while an initial view saw that as perhaps limited to Cuban-Americans or maybe Cubans and Venezuelans, it’s clear that he in fact did well with Latinos all up and down the state. And in fact, Trump’s gains with Latinos were shockingly widespread across the country. Here are some data points Enten assembled:

Trump did 19 points better in Lawrence, MA.

He did 16 points better in the South Bronx NY-15 House seat.

He did 11 points better in Chicago’s 22nd Ward.

He did 18 points better in Imperial County, California.

These gains are broad and wide. And they suggest that while particular observations about Cuban-American outreach or courting the “Tejano vote” in South Texas are interesting, they don’t really explain the trend. It’s true, as all the Latino politics people say, that the Latino vote is not monolithic. But what’s striking about Trump’s gains is that they appear to be present in Mexican-American and Puerto Rican areas as well as Cuban or South Americans. And they are present in urban communities as well as rural ones.

Perhaps most important of all, the trend is clearly present not just in heavily contested swing states but in deep blue ones too. That’s important because it suggests that the causal factor is not a technical aspect of campaign artistry but broad public response to the messages people were hearing [....]

Post-election there was this talk that Trump only really gained with Hispanics in S. FL and S. TX. Now, we know he made double digit gains in supermajority Hispanic areas in LA, Chicago, New York and even New England. It happened pretty much *everywhere*. https://t.co/uVOpJVhADP
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) December 12, 2020

vaguely related?

This is the piece I was discussing on Morning Joe with @daveweigel and @jennymedina https://t.co/caeTmGXQCL
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) December 18, 2020

[@mattyglesias voice]

Obama’s consumption of “prestige” television instead of the popular procedurals and reality shows watched by most Americans is revealing about the Democratic Party’s alienation from voters w/o college degrees. https://t.co/AkU4YcTqdn
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) December 18, 2020

Something I’m really interested in pollsters etc interrogating is why so many voters believed that Trump-style corruption wasn’t really corruption bc he was a DC outsider. In 2016, made sense. After four years of doing favors for donors and lobbyists, it was death-defying. https://t.co/NPpTYtrbng
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) December 18, 2020

by artappraiser on Fri, 12/18/2020 - 12:09pm

Oh. You guys didn't know, did you. It's baked into the culture. One of the reasons I'd had problem for decades of people thinking a massive influx of brown-skinned people would make some kind of progressive paradise? Uh, cuz it's well-documented.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caudillo#:~:text=A%20caudillo%20(%2Fk%C9%94%CB%90%CB%88,wielding%20military%20and%20political%20power.

by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 12/18/2020 - 2:52pm

Republicans came just 31,751 votes away from winning the House majority. I take stock of where the GOP fell just short, and also asked whether Democrats suffered an unusually high number of heartbreakers, like IA-2 is shaping up to be.https://t.co/BWzUBxiknS
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) December 17, 2020

by artappraiser on Sun, 12/20/2020 - 12:20am

rut roh, it's them educated urban elite cosmopolitans:

We updated our metro numbers too. Biden metros account for nearly 80% of US GDP.https://t.co/0mOCDyI2QB https://t.co/cJW3y0YsGG
— Richard Florida (@Richard_Florida) December 21, 2020

luckily Joe also knows how to tawk the lingo of Irish workin class

by artappraiser on Mon, 12/21/2020 - 2:20pm

Who knew #DiaperDonald represented the poor unwashed masses rather than the monied elite.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 12/21/2020 - 2:45pm

weird:

Biggest turnout increases (from '16 to '20):

1. Austin, TX (+34%)
2. Honolulu, HI (+34%)
3. Palm Springs, CA (+32.6%)
4. Phoenix, AZ (+31.7%)
5. San Antonio, TX (+29.85%)
6. Salt Lake City, UT (+29%)
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) December 22, 2020

except for Phoenix, that's the only one that makes sense to me

by artappraiser on Tue, 12/22/2020 - 1:37pm

Some college towns plus maybe better outreach to Hispanics. Hawaii liberal, maybe shocked, maybe related to low COVID rates

Then again, may be tied to how Mitch did so well -

https://t.co/VsW2Eswouh?amp=1

by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 12/24/2020 - 5:18am

For completeness. All that GOP activity with the voting machine industry since 2000 and before didn't just disappear. Note, even Ivanka was invested in voting machines. WTF?

America's largest (and arguably most troubled) voting machine vendor is ES&S, not Dominion Voting. Since Republicans seem to conspicuously avoid discussing it, I wrote this. I hope you find it useful. https://t.co/eKjotYTXxD
— Jennifer Cohn (@jennycohn1) December 22, 2020

by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 12/24/2020 - 5:26pm

Another wicked smart @amyewalter piece >https://t.co/zrN5QUj2Y7
— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) December 22, 2020

by artappraiser on Tue, 12/22/2020 - 8:55pm

"Immigrant Neighborhoods Shifted Red as the Country Chose Blue"; not a Greenwald fan but here he's just quoting impt. analysis showing how whitey helped elect Biden and more immigrant "p.o.c." went to Trump:

"Across the US, many areas with large populations of Latinos and residents of Asian descent, including ones with the highest numbers of immigrants, had something in common this election: a surge in turnout and a shift *to the right,* often a sizable one."https://t.co/bQfvQp8wTS
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) December 21, 2020

“In general, it suggests that Democrats’ theory of the case — that their electoral problems were all about race rather than class — was incorrect," said Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress.https://t.co/bQfvQp8wTS
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) December 21, 2020

The data is now clear that this is the story of the election, the reason Biden won:https://t.co/2kXFqzzzTy
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) December 21, 2020

Here is the real magnitude of the shift:

"But Trump performed better in big cities by two points, in Hispanic centers by 3.5 points and in working class-dominant parts of the country by nearly a point."
— Judge Dibs (@October1859) December 21, 2020

by artappraiser on Thu, 12/24/2020 - 4:44am

one chart from the above

by artappraiser on Thu, 12/24/2020 - 11:45am

Median age by Congressional district:

Look at how young the Atlanta Metro is https://t.co/VWWfI0qmi6
— Ryan Campbell (@RyanForSmyrna) December 24, 2020

by artappraiser on Thu, 12/24/2020 - 1:20pm

Democrats do seem to have a religion problem:

I do talk about this a little more here: https://t.co/6fXsC2qbKM

Virtually all religious voting blocks, with the exceptions of Catholics and the non-religious, shifted towards the GOP from 2016 through 2020. Democrats do seem to have a religion problem. pic.twitter.com/t3WO7M2lh7
— Musa al-Gharbi (@Musa_alGharbi) December 24, 2020

by artappraiser on Thu, 12/24/2020 - 5:12pm

That story, simply put, is that black, Hispanic and Asian voters -- whether you talk about them in general terms, or you break down by subgroup (i.e. Cuban, Mexican, Korean, etc.) shifted towards the GOP this cycle while whites shifted towards Democrats.
— Musa al-Gharbi (@Musa_alGharbi) December 24, 2020

by artappraiser on Thu, 12/24/2020 - 5:15pm

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The intra-Palestinian meeting in Moscow has precedent

Russia's hosted such meetings in the past, most recently Feb 2019

Russia has long lamented the US' "monopolization" of the peace process & tried to carve out a niche for itself: mediating among the disunited Palestinians/2
— Hanna Notte (@HannaNotte) February 29, 2024

Read the article at https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1763116222256701787

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Read the article at https://halginsberg.com/vote-for-jill-stein-again/

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submitted by artappraiser 11 months ago

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— Gareth Harris (@garethharr) December 28, 2023

Read the article at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/28/brazil-law-indigenous-land-rights-claim-time-marker?CMP=share_btn_tw

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Security Alert: U.S. Embassy Port-au-Prince, Haiti (...
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submitted by artappraiser 11 months ago

Location: U.S. Embassy and residential compounds

Events: Heavy gunfire is occuring around the area of the U.S. Embassy and residential compounds adjacent to the Trutier area of Tabarre. All Embassy personnel have been instructed to remain indoors and shelter-in-place until further notice. All others should avoid the area.

Actions to take:

Avoid the area;

Avoid demonstrations and any large gatherings of people;

Do not attempt to drive through roadblocks; and

If you encounter a roadblock, turn around and get to a safe area.

Read the article at https://ht.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-port-au-prince-haiti-december-25-2023/

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Pakistan Is Creating the World’s Next Refugee Crisis
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submitted by artappraiser 11 months ago

By The Editorial Board @ Bloomberg.com, December 8, 2023

A mass expulsion of Afghan migrants could destabilize the region and fuel radicalization. The West should pressure Islamabad to change course.

Read the article at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-08/pakistan-s-expulsion-of-afghan-refugees-risks-another-crisis

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submitted by artappraiser 11 months ago

All eyes on #Chad right now
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Read the article at https://x.com/_hudsonc/status/1732891968709992511?s=20

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[Economy] where Joe's success falls short
[Economy] where Joe's success falls short

submitted by PeraclesPlease 11 months ago

Read the article at

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[CRIME News] 3 loss-prevention employees in Macy’s across...
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submitted by artappraiser 11 months ago

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Read the article at https://x.com/KeeleyFox29/status/1731713272942940365?s=20

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Read the article at https://www.huffpost.com/entry/manuel-rocha-ambassador-arrested-cuba_n_656d1e2ae4b028b0f3d07478

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submitted by artappraiser 11 months ago

[Chapter I news is HERE, Oct. 7 til today]

You don’t get it.
It’s not about an UNRWA teacher who held an Israeli kid hostage in his house.
It’s all about how for 75 years you have destroyed the future of generations of Palestinians, including my family.
My cousins in Arab countries are still not citizens - not even the… https://t.co/nv6anubGhc
— George Deek (@GeorgeDeek) December 2, 2023

Note 'Community Notes' attached to UNWRA's statement.

Read the article at https://x.com/GeorgeDeek/status/1731020551328579863?s=20

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submitted by artappraiser 11 months ago

Imperialism for me but not for thee?

It's wild that Venezuela is now holding a vote on whether 2/3 of Guyana actually belongs to them! Analysts suggest that Modoru may want military action to pump up his sinking popularity.

Could we have a war in South America?!?

"The people who live in Essequibo are largely… pic.twitter.com/QvMEjkkgwy

Read the article at https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/03/world/americas/maduro-vote-essequibo-guyana.html

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Read the article at https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/29/divisions-leave-floridas-house-republicans-powerless-00129200

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submitted by artappraiser 12 months ago

@ Reuters, Nov. 29

Read the article at https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/us-health-insurers-humana-cigna-talks-merge-wsj-2023-11-29/

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submitted by artappraiser 12 months ago

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— Cameron Hudson (@_hudsonc) November 28, 2023

Read the article at https://africanarguments.org/2023/11/central-africas-dinosaur-regimes-and-the-art-of-coup-proofing/

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