The Political Environment Might Be Improving For Democrats

By artappraiser on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 4:47am |

By Nate Silver @ FiveThirtyEight.com, JUL. 29, 2022, AT 8:10 AM

As was the case when we launched the forecast a month ago, the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s midterm model still rates the battle for control of the Senate as a “toss-up.” But within that category there’s been modest, but consistent movement toward Democrats. Their chances of winning the Senate now stand at 55 percent. That’s up from 47 percent from forecast launch on June 30. It’s also up from 40 percent in a retroactive forecast dated back to June 1.1 [....]

This is matched by Democrats’ improved position on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they would support in a congressional election. Democrats are now essentially tied with Republicans in our generic ballot polling average, after having trailed by 2 to 3 percentage points over most of the late spring and early summer [....]

URL:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-political-environment-might-be-improving-for-democrats/

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because?

by artappraiser on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 5:51am

Awful: Moderate Democrats may vote for things their voters support https://t.co/NWS19siYbU
— Joe Gabriel Simonson (@SaysSimonson) August 1, 2022

Would I, liberal columnist, trade ending climate change for a border wall? I can't say. I can tell you that this is the most important bill ever, "epoch defining" even, and the thought of giving Republicans anything in exchange for its passage makes me absolutely ill.
— Joe Gabriel Simonson (@SaysSimonson) August 1, 2022

by artappraiser on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 4:35pm

by Orion on Tue, 08/02/2022 - 8:00pm

is this what you meant to post? your comment didn't take but I saw the hashtag on the little "Recent Comments" panel

Dark Brandon does it again #biden #DarkBrandon pic.twitter.com/glMvorruoY
— Sebastian Loreti (@SebastianLoreti) August 1, 2022

by artappraiser on Tue, 08/02/2022 - 9:57pm

For whatever reason - maybe he thinks things have changed? - Ron Johnson has decided to touch the third rail:

Self-serving millionaire Senator Ron Johnson wants to jeopardize your hard-earned Social Security and Medicare. Vote him OUT. #WISen https://t.co/3dBKcVbL8a
— Senate Democrats (@dscc) August 4, 2022

by artappraiser on Thu, 08/04/2022 - 6:17pm

.⁦@geoffgarin⁩: Voters are dealing with the Democratic candidates separately from President Biden…We see the incumbents’ ratings going up even in places where the president’s numbers are going down, which is a very unusual midterm dynamic.”
https://t.co/8Qp1XZU3L7
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) August 6, 2022

by artappraiser on Sat, 08/06/2022 - 5:22pm

Anyone is welcome to steal and repost my dark Brandon memes without crediting me, I am currently only interested in seeing if I can get them to spread across twitter and onto other platforms.
— Tobin Stone (@tobinjstone) August 5, 2022

(Retweeted by Yglesias)

by artappraiser on Sun, 08/07/2022 - 6:31pm

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