Salman Run: Saudi Shuffle as Trump Tweets Trip

By PeraclesPlease on Sun, 11/05/2017 - 12:05am |

Arrests come days after women allowed in spirts events first time.

Chief Saudi investor prince seems to spurn Jared, US stock exchange - is this result, or is Salman setting country on better path, rooting out crooked deals? Or more complicated?

While Saudis & Russians extend oil bromance, MoscoMoscow Times notes new partnership with Iran too

https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/iran-russia-display-strategic-unity-...

URL:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/05/saudi-king-sacks-top-ministers-and-gives-more-power-to-crown-prince

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David D. Kirkpatrick @ NYTmes is sort of suggesting opposite of chaos, consolidating power and conveniently being Trump friendly at the same time:

The sweeping campaign of arrests appears to be the latest move to consolidate the power of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the favorite son and top adviser of King Salman.

At 32, the crown prince is already the dominant voice in Saudi military, foreign, economic and social policies, stirring murmurs of discontent in the royal family that he has amassed too much personal power, and at a remarkably young age.

The king had decreed the creation of a powerful new anti-corruption committee, headed by the crown prince, only hours before the committee ordered the arrests.

Al Arabiya said that the anticorruption committee has the right to investigate, arrest, ban from travel, or freeze the assets of anyone it deems corrupt.

He then points out past Twitter spats between Trump and Prince Alaweed-Talal and notes

As president, Mr. Trump has developed a warm, mutually supportive relationship with the ascendant crown prince, who has rocketed from near obscurity in recent years to taking control of the country’s most important functions.

and at the end sums up with this

The king named Crown Prince Mohammed the minister of defense in 2015. Earlier this year, the king removed Prince Mohammed bin Nayef as head of the interior ministry, placing him under house arrest and extending the crown prince’s influence over the interior ministry’s troops, which act as a second armed force.

Rumors have swirled since then that King Salman and his favorite son would soon move against Prince Mutaib, commander of the third armed force and himself a former contender for the crown.

by artappraiser on Sun, 11/05/2017 - 12:27am

Yes, but why did Jared just fly there twice on the QT, how is connected w Trump's tweets re stock exchange, and how does this tie in with new Russian deals with Saud and Iran? (See updated post). I remain cautiously optimistic, but there's huge room for mischief too, and while Salman thinks he's moving the country one way, he may also be playing into Putin's hands - a huge amount of money and influence at stake, with our own administration working at cross purposes.

by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 11/05/2017 - 12:34am

New York Times' new stuff:

Saudi Crown Prince Upends Traditions in Purge of Rivals

By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK 7:26 PM ET

The move appeared to be the most sweeping shift in governance the kingdom has experienced for more than eight decades.

Crackdown Signals Push for More Open Brand of Islam

By BEN HUBBARD 56 minutes ago

Taming the powerful religious establishment may bring historic change to Saudi Arabia, where the royal family has always governed in consensus with clerics.

Also two other related:

Investors Worldwide Size Up Palace Intrigue in Oil-Rich Kingdom

Saudi-Led Coalition Warns Iran that Yemen Missile Launch Could Be ‘Act of War’

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/06/2017 - 12:34am

Wonder how release of Paradise Papers & all the illegal or quasi-legal tax havens ties in with this. Certainly a ton of corruption in this region - how will its revelations be used? Will MBS try to jumpstart its vision of 2030 on this, or is it more of a "my clan over your clan" purge? Arab Spring 2.0, or just more clamping down on Iran & Yemen and other rivals... Where does that dumb spat with Qatar a few months ago fit in? And what's Jared been flying there for, except maybe to lobby to get in front seat on Aramco's IPO or tie it up for Putin?

And we should remember the dangers of terrorist backlash are huge in Saudi Arabia - I can imagine the need to do something fast and sweeping rather than the risks of incremental change being derailed.

When I've noted how we've largely conquered war, the exceptions are a few flareups in the Mideast, partially fomented by Saudi & Iranian religious intolerant ideals, partly through retrograde dictatorships like in Syria & Turkey & formerly Hussein's Iraq or via backwards cultures like the Taliban or ISIS or the internecine Iraqi warfare. With a moderate reform that could take root across the region, we could have an overall peaceful landscape across the Silk Road for the first time in centuries, inch'allah.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 11/06/2017 - 3:35am

I think if the financial world can't figure out what's really going on yet, and they can't, no one can. They are definitely scrambling and trying to, see here @ CNBC, a few more hints:

Here's how the Saudi power players — and Trump — connect to each other

By Everett Rosenfeld, Published 5:02 AM ET Sun, 5 Nov 2017 Updated 8 Hours Ago

Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia arrested a host of powerful officials and businessmen as part of a supposed anti-corruption crackdown
Many see the move as a way for Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman to consolidate power
Donald Trump has connections to both the crown prince and arrested billionaire investor Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal

All I personally got so far is an explanation for Salman friendliness with Trump/Kushner, I think it's ideological, really I do. Surely he knows Trump is basically an idjit but the gut instinctual approach of Trump to Islam (including his spats with Alwaleed) is where he wants S.A. to go. They even got the same taste in decor et. al. , hah. And in women. Maybe not casinos, of course...Probably any young Saudi male with an education is a Trump Jr. or Kushner type. Not only that, lots of the wimmin under those chadors are Melania types. That what he's got to deal with. You've got to think about his population, because that's what he's thinking about. They are a bunch of spoiled brats and they've got to be prepared for the oil money slowly going away.

I don't get the whole Qatar thing because I haven't read that deeply on it, except to intuit from what I have read is that it partly is some kind of strings and mirrors bullshit. Mainly because Qatar hosts largest US military base in Mideast

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/06/2017 - 12:25pm

My guess is the opposite - that MBS is much much smarter than The Donald, but knows bucking the asshole in the White House is a lot harder than stroking his ego. I don't think Aramco will have much trouble fulfilling its IPO - everyone wants a piece, I assume. There is a chance he's on his way to being a good king - the spiel isn't bad, and except for a helicopter that went down (on purpose?) it hasn't been bloody - I think "imprisoned" means holed up in a 7-star hotel. But too little for me to place bets yet.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 11/06/2017 - 12:32pm

But don't forget Syria and Yemen have been more than damn bloody, Syria and its exodus one of the most upsetting things the world has ever seen, while we've been arguing the Trump vs. Hillary and Twitter and Facebook, over there their world threatened to be turned upside down. And Putin was right there, ready for things to be carved up in a new way.

Comes to mind how few threads you see on Israel/Palestine on sites like this for a couple years. Old passions gone. Do Pro-Palestinian passions still rule in Europe? Askin', not presuming, but imagining things have changed there as well...

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/06/2017 - 12:40pm

Syria being just one that we kind of noticed. When a million Afghanis were camped out in Pakistan for a decade, we were none too bothered. And it was simply that these people might resettle next door. (frankly the Germans wouldn't have been thrilled with Italians and the Poles wouldn't have been thrilled with too many French).

But I'm just saying MBS hasn't been too bloody (yet), so maybe it's a smooth if a bit abrupt consolidation. When he announces free elections for president is another matter, but I'm a bit jaded about these elections - Catalonia was complaining about the head of the EU not being elected, but Trask is a lot saner than the heads of UK & US at this point.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 11/06/2017 - 12:46pm

cavaet emptor:

Iran foreign minister says Kushner to blame for Lebanon crisis

In Twitter tirade against Saudi Arabia, Zarif points to recent visit to Riyadh by Trump son-in-law, accuses kingdom of 'regional bullying, destabilizing behavior'

"Staff" piece @ Times of Israel, Nov. 6

Iran’s foreign minister hinted Monday that US President Donald Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner was responsible for the surprise resignation of Lebanon’s prime minister over the weekend, a move that further fueled the regional rivalry between Tehran and Riyadh.

Saad Hariri unexpectedly announced his resignation on Saturday while visiting Riyadh, where he accused Saudi nemesis Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah of having a “grip” on Lebanon. He also said he feared for his life

Iran has said the US and Saudi Arabia were responsible for Hariri’s resignation, saying the move was meant to sow tension in Lebanon and the Middle East.

Iran’s foreign minister hinted Monday that US President Donald Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner was responsible for the surprise resignation of Lebanon’s prime minister over the weekend, a move that further fueled the regional rivalry between Tehran and Riyadh.

Saad Hariri unexpectedly announced his resignation on Saturday while visiting Riyadh, where he accused Saudi nemesis Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah of having a “grip” on Lebanon. He also said he feared for his life.

Iran has said the US and Saudi Arabia were responsible for Hariri’s resignation, saying the move was meant to sow tension in Lebanon and the Middle East.

“Visits by Kushner & Lebanese PM led to [Saad] Hariri’s bizarre resignation while abroad,” Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted. “Of course, Iran is accused of interference.”

Kushner visited Saudi Arabia in October as part of a four-day trip to the region that also included stops in Israel, Jordan and Egypt, Politico reported last week. Hariri traveled to the kingdom twice last week, announcing his resignation on the latter trip.

Zarif did not say how Kushner allegedly helped orchestrate Hariri’s decision to step down.

On Sunday, Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Hezbollah terror group, said the resignation was “imposed” by Saudi Arabia.[....]

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/06/2017 - 10:53pm

Reminder: July 25:

Trump erroneously says Lebanon is ‘on the front lines’ fighting Hezbollah, a partner in the Lebanese government

President Trump shakes hands with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri during a
joint news conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on Tuesday (July 25).
(Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/06/2017 - 10:59pm

uh oh. "heckuva job, Jared"? or all planned kabuki show?

Saudis accuse Iran of possible ‘act of war’ as regional tensions rise

By Kareem Fahim & Karen De Young @ WashingtonPost.com, Nov. 6, 6:04 pm

ISTANBUL — Questions about the aims and temperament of Saudi Arabia’s powerful crown prince came to the fore Monday after his country issued a bellicose warning to Iran, accusing it of carrying out a missile strike on the Saudi capital that may have constituted an “act of war.”

The missile was fired from neighboring Yemen on Saturday by the Houthis, a rebel group with ties to Iran that has been battling a Saudi-led military coalition. The war has spawned countless cross-border attacks — including Houthi ballistic missile launches and thousands of Saudi airstrikes across Yemen — as well as an endless string of recriminations between the Saudi and Iranian governments.

But several factors seemed to make the latest Saudi warning more dire, raising fears of a military escalation between the regional superpowers. Though it caused no casualties, the missile strike was among the deepest yet into Saudi territory during Yemen’s civil war [....]

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/06/2017 - 11:19pm

Digby has less than positive feedback.

by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 11/07/2017 - 4:07pm

I have come to take Ignatius' bead on the Mideast foreign policy & diplo world very seriously over more than a decade of reading him. He has incredible intel connections that few others do. Used to think that about Seymour Hersh, but then Hersh once in awhile fell for passing counter agit-prop. Ignatius is wiser about what he publishes from what he hears and not so ego-driven, and he also does a better job of keeping his own opinion separate.

If true, though, I am surprised at the naivete.

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/08/2017 - 12:05am

Juan Cole 'splainer on Hairiri "resignation" and Nasrallah accusation (the latter obviously influencing Iranian FM.)

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/06/2017 - 11:25pm

M.I.A.: Where’s Saad Hariri? Lebanon Wants to Know

by Anne Barnard for NYTimes, from Beirut, Nov. 7

[...] no one has seen anything quite like the spectacle that has played out over the past few days. Saad Hariri, the prime minister, who had previously shown no signs of planning to quit, unexpectedly flew to Saudi Arabia and announced his resignation from there, to the shock of his own close advisers. He has not been back since, and no one is sure when, or if, he is returning.

Hours after Mr. Hariri’s announcement — televised Saturday on a Saudi-controlled channel — Saudi Arabia’s assertive new crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, presided over the roundup of some 500 people, including 11 princes, on corruption charges.

Lebanon broke out the popcorn.

In a country where political analysis is a near-universal hobby, and where political power is — to oversimplify a bit — divided between Mr. Hariri’s Sunni, Saudi-backed party and the Shiite, Iran-backed Hezbollah, speculation was immediate that Mr. Hariri was also being held against his will. He holds dual Lebanese and Saudi citizenship and has extensive business dealings in the Persian Gulf kingdom.

A front-page headline in Al Akhbar, a newspaper that leans toward Hezbollah, called the Saudi-backed Mr. Hariri a “hostage.” [....]

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/08/2017 - 1:32am

Baffling Events in Lebanon Are Fueling Anxiety in the Mideast

By ANNE BARNARD @ NYTimes.com 5 minutes ago

The case of the missing Lebanese prime minister, who flew to Saudi Arabia to announce his resignation, is threatening to become a flash point in the struggle for power in the Middle East.
The Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah said the Saudis were holding him against his will, while the Saudis have said there was a plot to assassinate him.

by artappraiser on Fri, 11/10/2017 - 1:52pm

What Basquiat used to call SAMO:

The Hottest Social Media Star in the Middle East Is a Radical Saudi Cleric

How Mohammed al-Arefe became the favorite preacher of ISIS recruits—and an ally of the Saudi government.

By HAROON ULLAH @ Politico.com, Nov. 10, 2017

[....] He is also a danger to Saudi society who is inspiring a whole new group of preacher acolytes to spread his extreme views—exactly the sort of rabble-rouser the Saudi royal family should view as a threat to the kingdom’s stability and future success. Yet his soaring popularity insulates him from government pressure. Arefe has strategically positioned himself to speak against “the establishment”—as in, mainstream Saudi religious scholars, who tend to toe the government line—and the West, using rhetoric his followers eat up like hard candy. But he’s also proven useful to the government at times—most recently when he lashed out at Qatar for the ongoing Gulf crisis, which is feuding with Saudi Arabia over its support for the Muslim Brotherhood and friendly relations with Iran. Arefe’s comments won acclaim from Saudi political leaders, who appreciated his remark that protecting the kingdom from geopolitical adversaries like Qatar is a “ religious obligation.”

So, while many princes were swept up in Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s corruption crackdown this past week, Arefe has not been targeted, indicating the power he wields within the kingdom and beyond. The crown prince says he wants to promote moderate Islam and modernize the Saudi economy. But the Bill Gates of Saudi Arabia—entrepreneurial billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal—was arrested, while the Tony Robbins of extremism—Mohammed al-Arefe—remains free to spread his bile across the Middle East [....]

What to figure: is Salman moving two steps forward, one step back or is it two steps forward, two steps back?

by artappraiser on Fri, 11/10/2017 - 9:08pm

Sideways, spin around, hop! All that hustle and bustle, maybe he isn't actually going anywhere. Time will tell - the great copout.

by PeraclesPlease on Sat, 11/11/2017 - 1:03am

Saudi Arabia Comes for Hezbollah

By Mohamad Bazzi @ NYTimes.com, Nov. 10

In its war with Iran, Riyadh has its sights set on Lebanon’s most powerful political force.

Mohamad Bazzi (@bazziNYU), an associate professor of journalism at New York University and the former Middle East bureau chief at Newsday, is writing a book about the proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

by artappraiser on Sat, 11/11/2017 - 10:00am

Basically says everybody is spooked because nobody is sure wassup:

The Upstart Saudi Prince Who’s Throwing Caution to the Winds

By Ben Hubbard & David D. Kirkpatrick @ NYTimes.com, Nov. 14, 2017

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — With the tacit backing of his father, Saudi Arabia’s 32-year-old crown prince has established himself as the most powerful figure in the Arab world, rushing into confrontations on all sides at once [....]

The crown prince has moved so quickly that American officials and others worry that he is destabilizing the region. Signs of potential blowback are growing.

Investors, nervous about his plans, have been moving money out of the kingdom. Prince Mohammed has sought to counter the capital flight by squeezing detainees and others to surrender assets. He has presented the arrests as a campaign against corruption, but his targets call it a shakedown, and he has turned for advice to a former Egyptian security chief who has been pilloried at home for brutality and graft [....]

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/15/2017 - 1:06am

P.S. Almost seems as if the reporters went out of their way to get this quote just for Peracles:

[....] Both princes appear to have formed a particular bond with Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, who at 36 is a contemporary of the young Saudi prince.

Mr. Trump chose Saudi Arabia for the first foreign trip of his presidency, and Prince Mohammed and Mr. Kushner have built such a strong rapport that other American officials say they are not briefed on what the two discuss.

“Jared is a bit of a black hole,” said one State Department official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss frustration with the White House. “There is no sense of the positions he has advocated. We can only guess, based on what he has done and where he has been.” [.....]

by artappraiser on Wed, 11/15/2017 - 1:11am

Yes, they're consulting with me now for proper spin before they put out these releases. I'll be the Steve Bannon/Breitbart of the left

by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 11/15/2017 - 4:46am

Tom Friedman thinks it's the real deal:

Saudi Arabia’s Arab Spring, at Last; The crown prince has big plans to bring
back a level of tolerance to his society, Nov. 23

. We know he's been fooled before, but older and wiser now?

by artappraiser on Thu, 11/23/2017 - 11:50pm

I'm not completely pessimistic - I'm just not sure. I know it's not in a vacuum - Trump wants his cut, there are other families who'd bring it down, Israel is adamant in its wants, the mullahs can be snakes, then there's ISIS, and I'm not sure I understand why Iran worries all of them so, much, plus Russia is cutting its oil deals as part of expansion/consolidation, and China's global posturing is complex. Perhaps the worst is the likelihood that building a Silicon Valley in the desert to hope they come is as bad an approach as the Japanese pouring concrete a generation ago. But at least the tech approach should create spinoffs and some successes, while Tokyo just got runoff problems and ugly landscape.

I do wish he'd settle that goddamn war in Yemen. It's the biggest, most useless and indefensable black eye in all of this, and the US including Obama isn't innocent.

by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 11/24/2017 - 1:26am

It seems like the plan is the real deal and the prince is serious about wanting to implement it. The oil is going to be less and less valuable for many years as there's a glut of oil and maybe forever as renewables get cheaper and are used for a greater and greater percentage of our energy needs. So these oil producing countries have to use what money oil brings now to build a more diversified economy, or they will end up broke and impoverished. But it's a tough row to hoe with the Wahabi clerics that have been financed for years by the government. They're not going to give up that power without a fight and there's no telling how much power they have with the Saudi population from decades of propagandizing them with fundamentalist Islam.

by ocean-kat on Fri, 11/24/2017 - 1:53am

Yeah, but what does that have to do with imprisoning the west-leaning Saudi Prince who was investing in Apple & Google? The clerics have been fairly docile this year. But the mass arrests (to a 7-star hotel, granted) have been other princes, not Wahabi clerics. So what does that say to our Ouija board?

by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 11/24/2017 - 2:18am

yes, that bothers me, too, only because one could just as easily get many of the arrested people on board with any modernization plan. But then there's that someone accustomed to think monarch rarely thinks democratic in any way shape or form..Which is kind of why some pundits' use of the adjective populist here strikes me as inaccurate. (The "people's princess" model of Diana aside, think you'd have to be a woman to do that.)

by artappraiser on Fri, 11/24/2017 - 2:33pm

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The intra-Palestinian meeting in Moscow has precedent

Russia's hosted such meetings in the past, most recently Feb 2019

Russia has long lamented the US' "monopolization" of the peace process & tried to carve out a niche for itself: mediating among the disunited Palestinians/2
— Hanna Notte (@HannaNotte) February 29, 2024

Read the article at https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1763116222256701787

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Events: Heavy gunfire is occuring around the area of the U.S. Embassy and residential compounds adjacent to the Trutier area of Tabarre. All Embassy personnel have been instructed to remain indoors and shelter-in-place until further notice. All others should avoid the area.

Actions to take:

Avoid the area;

Avoid demonstrations and any large gatherings of people;

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[Chapter I news is HERE, Oct. 7 til today]

You don’t get it.
It’s not about an UNRWA teacher who held an Israeli kid hostage in his house.
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@ Reuters, Nov. 29

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