Total and Complete Chaos in Iowa

Total and Complete Chaos in Iowa

By Elusive Trope on Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:01am |

Newt is not going away so easily it would seem.

With days to go before the Iowa caucuses, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is surging to a statistical dead heat with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, according to a new Newsmax/InsiderAdvantage poll.

The Iowa contest is now in “total and complete chaos, ” declares Insider Advantage chief pollster Matt Towery, who says this weekend’s final campaign push will be decisive.

The Newsmax/InsiderAdvantage poll shows Gingrich, Romney, and Paul in a statistical tie, with each getting 17 percent support of likely GOP voters in Iowa.

The top three candidates are followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 13 percent support; Rep. Michele Bachmann at 12 percent; Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 11 percent; and former Utah Gov. and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman with 3 percent — statistically tied in last place with an unnamed candidate.

URL:

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/gingrich-tied-romney-paul/2011/12/29/id/422492

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Of course, InsiderAdvantage has consistently been showing Romney with much lower numbers than other pollsters have. He's never cracked 20 in their poll, and they've occasionally shown him as low as 12.

Maybe InsiderAdvantage has it right and the other pollsters don't. But, to play poor man's Nate Silver, we should not that InsiderAdvantage, for whatever reason, has shown a strong anti-Romney lean in Iowa all year.

by Doctor Cleveland on Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:14am

Maybe InsiderAdvantage has it right and the other pollsters don't

I believe that the good Doctor is too kind--note that the partner here is the odious Newsmax.

Case closed.

by jollyroger on Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:27am

I was listening to one reporter in Iowa talk about how difficult it is to poll in Iowa - in a state of over 3 million people, one has to find the roughly 100,000+ who are going to actually participate in the Republican caucus. So who knows. It may just provide another example of the Anti-Romney sentiment among the conservatives.

by Elusive Trope on Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:52am

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