MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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On Trump’s To-Do List: Take Back The Suburbs. Court Black Voters. Expand the Electoral Map...
By artappraiser on Sat, 02/08/2020 - 5:44pm |
URL:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/08/us/politics/trump-reelection-campaign.html
- 7811 reads
Comments
by artappraiser on Sat, 02/08/2020 - 5:46pm
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 02/09/2020 - 2:47am
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 02/09/2020 - 2:48am
They still love Trump - or at least his results.
We better figure out what that means, quick.
https://digbysblog.net/2020/02/you-cant-split-the-big-orange-baby/
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 11:21am
I know those people. They like: everybody having jobs and if they have one, their 401K goes up or at least stays the same. They don't like: political correctness and democratic socialism. They could care less about MAGA. Immigrants are fine if they want to work and don't come to take government help. Their great grandpa from Poland didn't take any, came on the boat with $3 in his pocket.
Trump's a real NYC asshole but they don't want to rock a rising boat. Monster is the wrong word. He's too volatile and angry and makes shit up.
They listen to Fox News but don't buy everything on it. They dislike OCD and pals more
They are not angry at anyone, though. They are not angry people and don't like angry people. They prefer the Trump that is not angry, he's tolerable when he makes fun of anger.
They recognize Bernie as that Independent Senator guy and he's intriguing; I suspect many don't realize that Bernie is allied with who they dislike, but they'll eventually will.
It's no small thing to them that the lowest unemployment rate ever for a president is during this administration. For these people it's especially no small thing that that includes jobs for minorities. These people live in white flight land, they fled the lowering property values, high property taxes, bad schools and high crime. They wouldn't go to downtown Milwaukee now if you paid them to, they haven't been there for decades even though it's a 1/2 hr. away and don't know how it's changed.
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 2:41pm
P.S. Joe gets them and they like him for that but he unfortunately is for big Federal government and giving away the store to those who don't want to work.
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 2:38pm
Biden beats Trump
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 9:45pm
We are talking Waukesha, Wisconsin. Not the overall national vote. Not the minority vote, not the urban vote.
You continuously return to commenting as if you don't know how Hillary lost to Trump, while winning the majority vote in the country overall. The Electoral College is the game, not the majority vote. Especially given Trump's steady approval rating, the swings are the game. And they do differ in each crucial area, they are not all the same. They aren't even all white.
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 10:00pm
You said Biden gets them
BTW
If rural whites hate being thought of as forgotten and uneducated, urban blacks take great offense to being labeled lazy and shiftless.
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 10:06pm
They're not rural, they are suburban and they don't feel forgotten or uneducated. They aren't all working class though they come from it.They don't like what urban ghettoes do to a city, they don't like that there is little education going on in the same and the lack of appreciation for education and they think that it leads to high crime and low property values.They don't like having to support urban poor with their tax dollars. So they move away. To Waukesha.
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 10:13pm
Wherever they are,
Needs to stop
Edit to add:
Conversely, a return to higher black turnout could be a key element in toppling Trump next year. In a major study from the Center for American Progress, Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin project that natural demographic trends in the last four years plus a return to 2012 levels of African-American voting would flip four states — Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — and give Democrats a 294-244 majority in the Electoral College. And even if black voting turnout doesn’t quite hit those levels, in many states even marginal changes in turnout and Democratic vote-share could make the difference in a close race.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/11/how-can-democrats-get-the-black-turnout-they-need-in-2020.html
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 10:18pm
WAKEUP: TRUMP DOESN'T NEED A MAJORITY
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 10:22pm
The post is about GOTV where it counts electorally.
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 10:43pm
He doesn't even need a majority where he needs a majority, if that makes sense...
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 9:16am
yes it does. you go further than me, but I think it's a valid opinion.
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 1:04pm
Furthermore, I suspect they really do resent being called racist just because they want a better life than paying a lot for high crime and low quality education. They give up, tied of being blamed for being white.
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 10:16pm
The opioid crisis has increased the white crime rate. That is the result of BigPharma, not Mexicans and blacks.
http://bostonreview.net/forum/donna-murch-how-race-made-opioid-crisis
You didn't address the label of being unwilling to work. Blacks are living through the same economic stressors.
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 10:42pm
An interesting aside on the white flight topic. I was reading up on Liz Warren's background at Wikipedia yesterday. And was surprised to learn that one of her main turning points from Republican fiscal conservative to a Democrat concerned about the middle class was when she went into the study of bankruptcy in the 80's thinking that she was going to prove that most personal bankruptcies were people spending on stupid stuff trying to keep up with the Joneses. And instead found that, contra to her bias going in,rising bankruptcy rates were caused not by profligate consumer spending but by middle-class families' attempts to buy homes in good school districts.[30]
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 1:14pm
OCD?
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 4:30pm
oops, hah, meant AOC.
While I'm here, look here's the fiscal panic over immigrant hordes phenomenon in an economic study:
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 4:37pm
Thinking about when I said above They are not angry at anyone, though. They are not angry people and don't like angry people. Reminded me I had seen this mentioned as of import somewhere else recently.
I found it, it's here RADIO FREE TOM'S REALITY CHECK TWITTER LECTURE & PEP TALK
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 10:08pm
I don't know why you are so puzzled by this PP. I think it's long been figured out. The 9% that give him a positive approval rating, above the 33% of the population that have long been right-wing nuts, are like this:
from the WaPo article from NH that I posted on the NH Primary thread.
They tell the pollster that he's doing a good job because it's the economy stupid. These are not MAGA nuts and they don't care about culture wars abstractions. Prove to this guy that higher taxes on the well-off are not going to kill what's been going on. They remember no jobs at all, they don't want to go back to that. Poor paying jobs are better than none. Like it or not, a substantial minority fear Democrats in charge of the economy, including some Democrats. Don't want to hear the tax and spend thing, don't think it works, don't want to be "on the dole" and don't want to pay for others to be "on the dole."
When they go into the voting booth in Nov., these types have to feel trust that the Dem candidate isn't going to fuck the economy up. Or they may nervously backslide into voting for him again.
This is why "how are you going to pay for it?" has been a killer for Warren. As some talking head just pointed out on cable tv, Bernie doesn't get that question because he straight out says he's going to raise taxes, take it or leave it.
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 1:45am
I think there's still sexism involved - Obama didn't get that question very much even as he was cribbing much of Hillary's healthcare plan. I suspect women are considered too pea-brained to manage that big ole "it's the economy, stupid", instead being more at home (that's right) with the grocery list and the house cleaning.
Big tuff men are counted on to just wing it and figure it out - saddle that horse, I'll be back in time for dinner (little lady... hope you have the vittles prepared & kids put to sleep).
That doesn't mean I think any of the female candidates are terribly presidential. In fact, I think almost none of them are. Part of that can be blamed on the Obama-ization of the presidency - that a guy (gal) can start running for President just 2 years into his only federal experience, while having 0 executive experience (i.e. a governor or mayor of NY/LA). Mayor of a town of 100,000? 39 years old for inauguration? a Masters, not a JD? war experience was a desk job with finance + driving a truck? (Teddy Roosevelt was less than 43, but he'd been NYC police commissioner, Governor of NY, led the Rough Riders in Cuba and Vice President of the US. JFK spent 14 years in the House & Senate plus commanded PT boats in the Solomon Islands.) How does Kamala Harris compare? (Harris part of the problem is her positions are *too* attoerney-like for a traditional politician). Klobuchar will have at least 14 years in the Senate. Booker 8 years as Senator plus 8 years mayor of a city of 280,000.
And Bernie's now older than any US President ever (including Trump if he finished a 2nd term), and that's a year before inauguration (and 4 months after his heart attack), about 10 years older than Reagan when he took office as the oldest. How's Trump's cognitive powers & energy holding up? Biden's? Look at Bill Clinton these days, and he's only 73. And imagine Liz Warren running in 8 years, what we'd be saying.
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 8:18am
just on one of your points because I think it pegs her well and is interesting How does Kamala Harris compare? (Harris part of the problem is her positions are *too* attoerney-like for a traditional politician)
Seems like for major executive positions like president and governor, if they are L.D.'s they need to be the more theoretical Constitutional kind, not actual practicing trial and prosecution/defense attorneys who got deep into strident advocacy to the border of lying if not outright lying. Harris types are great attack dogs basically, instead of talented management and manipulation of bureaucracy. (FWIW this definitely argues against someone like Avenatti being appropriate.)
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 1:39pm
Avenatti was never appropriate - his job was to face down Tump and Cohen like a lawyer's lawyer, like Rick Is ilson on steroids, and now he sits in Manhattan jail but fucking lib Dems couldn't make their case stick in impeachment - Avenatti won his. But like with Al Franken, we shoot another of our most effective. Did he cheat these other people? I surely don't know. Do I trust Nike's story? Not at all.
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 2:43pm
Sen. Manchin apparently thinks "fat chance":
...“The people of America and the people of West Virginia want some adults in the room,” he said in an interview, but he said that Mr. Trump was not behaving like one....
Also see @ Fox News from Friday night:
Sen. Joe Manchin rejects claim that West Virginians are mystified by his impeachment trial votes
Feb. 07, 2020 - 5:49 - West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin joined fellow Democratic senators and voted guilty on both articles of impeachment against President Trump.
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 9:31pm
Majority vote for throwing the bum out is as solid as his approval rating. As with 2016, manipulating the Electoral College is the only game?
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 9:35pm
another related cross-link: THE BERNIE VOTERS WHO DEFECTED TO TRUMP, EXPLAINED BY A POLITICAL SCIENTIST
excerpts:
by artappraiser on Mon, 02/10/2020 - 11:17pm
This reminds me of Trump's prescience in attacking "the media". He watches political TV talking heads and the gets involved in what happens there as almost like role play, a game. This woman, on the other side, got mad like he does:
Trump takes it further and includes more professional media that separate news and opinion, as if they were no different.
But I think his main attitude resounds. Many people who are politically active take what is said on MSNBC, CNN and Fox shows personally and get involved in the role play. They don't get that it's happening because money is made out of them getting all het up and they overestimate the power of the talking heads on others not like them.
by artappraiser on Tue, 02/11/2020 - 1:53pm