This is my distillation of what the average American should know about the "debate" transpiring in Washington about the deficit.
I. Government spending over the past 20 years has increased at a lower rate than any of the other factors contributing to GDP.
II. The deficit crisis was created by a combination of events, but mostly by:
a. A global financial crisis precipitated by a combination of factors, not the least of which was a bubble in the real estate market which was used to feed the financial markets collateral to include in financial products which the banksters hawked to their customers, while they in turn placed bets that those products would fail. This is called "financialization". This process was facilitated by deregulation and lax enforcement of existing regulations governing financial markets from the mid/late 1990s onward.
III. The financial crisis reduced government tax collections at all levels.
IV. Individual income tax receipts account for 42% of US tax receipts. Social Security and social insurance taxes account for 40%. Corporate taxes account for 9% of US tax receipts.
V. Once the tax revenue fell off due to the financial crisis, the deficit problem was exacerbated by other legislation of the past 12 years, including:
a. The Bush tax cuts, which favor the wealthy, reduced federal coffers after the surplus of the Clinton years.
b. The launching of a general war on terror/invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan that has helped depleted the national treasury.
c. A defense budget that exceeds the rest of the world combined,
d. But the overwhelming reason for the deficit problem in the US and abroad, is the reduced national revenues due to the financial collapse.
VI. This gap between the US income and its expenditures should be reduced, but doing so should not be done in a way that erodes the economy even further. That is all but impossible to do when private sector spending is decreased as it is now. The Government must spend more at times like these to make up for those missing private expenditures. Europe has been experimenting with deficit reduction techniques through cutting their budgets over the past two years, and those nation's economies have continued to deteriorate as if they had never approached the problem, or worse, they have served to accelerate their nations economic deterioration.
a. Reducing the gap between national income and expenditures can be approached in three ways.
1. By restoring tax rates on corporations and businesses to the higher pre-Bush levels.
2. By cutting government spending. This approach can backfire depending on which areas of the budget are cut, and in an economic downturn will likely worsen the deficit.
3. Improving the economy so that tax revenues increase due to increased commerce. This of course is tied to #2 above.
VII. Reducing the deficit will not increase the amount of money the treasury takes in. Unless public money is invested in venues that increase household consumption, or otherwise stimulate economic growth, deficit reduction will likely decrease the amount of money the government takes in.
VIII. Our political class believes that taxes cannot be raised on the upper tier of American income earners and corporations, who are now enjoying the lowest rates of taxation in over 50 years, and a wealth disparity between the upper 10% of American wealth holders and the lower 80% that rivals that seen during the Great Depression.
IX. Our government has decided that we "all" must share the burden of the reconfiguration of this dynamic, and sacrifice services which average Americans now enjoy, in order to reduce the deficit.
X. That means public services such as Social Security will be reduced. This removes money from the economy in an all ready faltering market, and will contribute to even greater unemployment.
XI. Reducing the deficit will not create more jobs or wealth for the lower 80% of Americans. Reducing the deficit will benefit major financial players by stabilizing their current portfolios.
XII. Reducing the deficit will only make the economy worse, lowering tax revenues and increasing the lines at the unemployment office.
XIII. The federal budget deficit will not come down significantly until the economy improves.
XIV. Nobody in elected public office is interested in addressing the problem of wealth/income for the man on the street, and truly reducing the deficit by improving the economy. Unless you own a bank, you're s@#t-out-o-luck.
XV. You should be very angry.
I'm traveling and won't be around to comment for some time, and f@#k Microsoft Word, and it's auto-formatting too.
Comments
Well done! The Center for Economic And Budgetary Priorities, using CBO numbers, thinks that the recession costs in 2009 and 2010 were $400 billion and will persist at or near that level until the tax base is rebuilt by bringing unemployment down. Those costs are larger, on an annual basis, than either TARP or the stimulus. You cannot balance the budget with 9% unemployment and falling really wages.
by Michael Maiello on Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:14am
Great stuff!
by Dan Kervick on Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:18am
Excellent summary. I'd add a couple of thoughts.
The phrase "deficit crisis" probably doesn't convey what you intend. The actual crisis is a historical confrontation between the extraordinarily wealthy, who believe they are politically strong enough now to manipulate all the levers of power, and the rest of us, who only vote. The deficit is just an excuse. (Krugman and Baker are great on this.)
Second, you might want to move "You should be very angry" to the top of the list.
Here's an interesting post from our old friend Josh Marshall (h/t Brad DeLong).
He's talking about what happens if the debt ceiling isn't raised:
by Red Planet on Tue, 07/12/2011 - 11:35am
Cash Management Bills with zero or negative yields?
Last auction was for $15B for six days at .041% (investment rate) -- really close to zero.
Does not look like they had any problem rounding up bidders either -- almost $83B
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2011/R_20110608_1.pdf
Maybe it is time for Treasury to begin reaping some of the benefits of real negative interest rates.
by EmmaZahn on Tue, 07/12/2011 - 5:23pm
Good idea, Emma. I think the Taylor Rule suggests the current interest rate should be about -4%.
Now, if we could sell enough treasury notes to Pete Peterson at that rate, we'd be up and running quickly.
Seriously though, the problem is that you're being logical again. Everyone knows that this is the time and place to push through cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Just as it took a Republican (Nixon) to open the door to China, it takes a Democrat (Obama) to push the "Entitlements" self-destruct button.
The game's afoot.
by Red Planet on Tue, 07/12/2011 - 7:42pm
In order to persuade those not already persuaded, I would add two more things - (1) what assurances can be given that Congress will stop spending at the increased amount to get the economy going once the economy gets back on its feet; and (2) how are the Republican/conservatives wrong that taxing the "job creators" in order to increase revenue will not result in hurting the economy and thus reducing revenue and creating more unemployment.
by Elusive Trope on Tue, 07/12/2011 - 12:13pm
XVI. The GOP has no intention of doing anything to reduce, eliminate or find a solution for the deficit issue, except to use it as a partisan political prop to exploit for votes and create division.
by NCD on Tue, 07/12/2011 - 4:04pm
Miguelito, as usual you have honed this down to a few paragraphs. I don't know that ANYTHING else needs to be added. Thank you for this. I plan to re-post it all over the place!]
Jan
by CVille Dem on Tue, 07/12/2011 - 9:27pm
Gracias Señor. ¡Muchos gracias!
Shorter Peegalito: There is a class war going on, and we ain't even close to winning it. Time to get out the peetchfokes. I think, like C'Ville, I will repost as mucho es possibul.
Someone is channeling Maxine, that wonderful girl economist. I miss her, but not so much today.
by bwakfat on Tue, 07/12/2011 - 11:39pm