Elusive Trope's picture

    Time to Retreat

    By Elusive Trope on Thu, 01/12/2012 - 9:34pm |

    Run away! Run away! No, not that kind of retreat.

    *

    I was thinking we as a nation needed to take some time to withdraw from the bustle of the day to day and engage in a period of reflection and study...together.  I mean, it seems, regardless of one's socio-political stripes,  everyone is disgruntled with the way things are.  Something's gotta change.  But we also seem as a nation to be divided about where we need to go and how to get there (and where we have been).  A push me-pull you nation, unable to retreat from the scene even if we wanted to.

    So a little notion crossed my mind.  What if we had a little retreat to do some strategic visioning.  Individuals from across the country would be randomly selected to participate in groups of 25 people.  Each group would spend five days in some secluded location and attempt to generate a plan of action for the country.  Afterwards, the groups would meet to fuse the plans together in some fashion.  The question would be, how would I conduct the five-day retreat if I was to facilitate the retreat.

    For the time being I would say that retreat would follow basic guidelines based on the Oregon Model for Community Visioning. 

    The Four Steps of the Oregon Model include:

    • Where Are We Now?  Community Profile: Descriptive Information, Community Values.
    • Where Are We Going? Trend Statement:  Trend Information and Probable Scenario
    • Where Do We Want to Be?  Vision Statement: Possible/Preferred Scenarios, Community Vision
    • How Do We Get There? Action Plan:  Goals, Strategies, Actions; Action Agendas & Priorities.

    In order to answer the question as to how I would approach facilitating such a vision process, I had to know first with whom I was going to be facilitating in the process.  So using Gallup and Census data, I have sketched out the following participants based on the idea that the group of 25 would reflect the percentages in the various characteristics and demographics of the country. 

    Since this is in large part a political question, I will start with people's political affiliation.  According to the latest Gallup survey, it is 40% of American identify themselves as Independent, 31% as Democratic,  and 27% as Republican.  This means my group would consist of:

    10 Independents

    8 Democrats

    7 Republicans

    This tells me something, but not nearly enough.  Next up would be self-identified political ideology with the choices being moderate (M), conservative (C), very conservative (VC), liberal (L) and very liberal (VL).  

    For the Independents, the results were: M 44%, C 27%, VC 8%, L 14%, VL 6%.

    For the Democrats: M 39%, C 18%, VC 5%, L 29%, VL 9%.

    For the Republicans: M 24%, C 50%, VC 21%, L 3%, VL 1%

    We will note that this is self-identified, so the conservative may hold beliefs that would be considered liberal, the liberal may hold beliefs that would be considered conservative (which some would describe me).

    So the current breakdown for my 25 is

    The Moderate 10: 3 Democrats, 5 Independents, and 2 Republicans

    The Conservative 7: 2 Democrats, 2 Independents, and 3 Republicans

    The Very Conservative 3: 1 Independent and 2 Republicans

    The Liberal 3: 2 Democrats and 1 Independent

    The Very Liberal 2: 1 Democrat and 1 Independent

    Already we can begin to see some serious leanings of the group.  Nothing can really get done unless the moderates want to do it, although the conservatives and very conservatives together have a strong influence on the direction of the five days.  Yet if the moderates and the liberals get together...

    But there needs to be some demographic information to help flesh this group out. 

    First up, where are they from.  Based on census data, the regional dispersion of the U.S. is South 37.1%, Midwest 21.7%, Northeast 17.9%, and the West 23.3%.  The group would consist of:

    9 Southerners

    5 Midwesterners

    4 Northeasterners

    6 Westerners

    Furthermore, 83.7% live in metropolitan areas, which consist of population of 50,000 or more, of which there 366 in this country.  10% of the population live in the micropolitan areas, which have population of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000.  Those living in areas of less than 10,000 account for 6.3% of the population.  Using the regional numbers above, the 25 breakout like this.

    20 Metropolitan Residents: 7 from the South, 4 Midwest, 4 Northeast, and 5 West.

    3 Micropolitan Residents: 1 from the South, 1 Midwest, and 1 Northeast

    2 Rural Residents: 1 from the South and 1 West.

    If there is a voting block so far it has to be the city folks. This would reflect a common complaint out there in the real world from those who live in rural areas and see their needs and interests as different from the people who dwell in the urban areas.

    As one might imagine the split between male and female is pretty even.  The latest figure is female is 50.9% and male 49.1%.  Since the females have a slight statistical edge the 25 will be composed of 13 females and 12 males.

    Now to ethnicity/race.  Whites compose 72% of the population (which includes those from northern African and the Middle East). Blacks and African American 12%, Other (which is where Hispanics are located in the census data) 6%, Asians 4.8%, two or more races 2.9%.  My 25 would consist of:

    18 Whites, but this would include 1 from Moroccan heritage and 1 from Lebanese heritage.  

    3 Blacks or African Americans

    2 Hispanics

    1 Asian

    1 who is of two races, in this case White and Black/African American which is the highest statistical probability.

    Not all race are represented in the 25.  For instance, there is no representative of Native Americans who make up 0.7% of the population.  This would reflect a reality that exists out there in the "real world" where Native Americans have no voice at the table.

    Our age break out would follow age groups 20-29 19.4%, 30-39 18.1%, 40-49 19.6%,  50-59 18.1%, 60-69 12.4%, 70-79 7.3%, 80-89 4.25%.  There will be no one 90 and over, which like the Native Americans are statistically not likely to be picked. The 25 include

    5: 20 to 29 year olds

    4: 30 to 39 year olds

    5: 40 to 49 year olds

    5: 50 to 59 year olds

    3: 60 to 69 year olds

    2: 70 to 79 year olds

    1: 80 to 89 year old

    It is interesting to note that since older Americans are more likely to vote, the retreat would be much more influenced by the younger generation than the typical election. 

    The last bit of information to be detailed at this time is, yes, income.  We are going to assume that these folks are all part of the 99%, seeing it would be statistically unlikely that someone from the 1% would be randomly chosen (just like the Native Americans and the folks over 90.

    Rather than look at the income of the individual, household income will be considered.  The median income for all households is $49,445.  This would mean that half of the 25 would belong to a household that earned less than that and the other half more. Since I have an odd number, one individual will belong to a household that makes exactly $49,445.  

    If we consider the unemployment rate at 8.5%, then 2 of the individuals in the lower half will be unemployed.  The U-6 rate*, however, is a little over 15%, which would be about 4 individuals.  So we would include another 2 individuals who are not technically "unemployed" under the official rate.

    The broader unemployment rate, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification by the Labor Department...includes everyone in the official rate plus “marginally attached workers” — those who are neither working nor looking for work, but say they want a job and have looked for work recently; and people who are employed part-time for economic reasons, meaning they want full-time work but took a part-time schedule instead because that’s all they could find.

    This would leave 8 individuals who are employed or not employed by choice whose household brings in less than median income.  

    There are some information to be considered, such as marital status, the number of children, and education levels, as well as age and regional location that would influence where the individuals would more likely fall.  This in turn would likely have an influence on their politics (or not).  But I will need to match all of that up at another time. 

    I will end this for now by saying it would be an interesting five days.  Just thinking about how to make for a successful and productive visioning process is enough to make one run away, run away.

    (*sculpture push me pull you by Julian Wild)

    Comments

    I could support the base foundation as to the format.  

    However, can't get on board with the participants (specifically) grouping as to ethnicity and race.  The 'white' segment is way too dominant.  Don't really believe that utilizing this type of ratio would ever be accepted as the best, much less fair, representation of segments of our society.  

    I'm also concerned about the dominance of metropolitan participants.  Just like with the different socio-economic groups having some different needs - rural residents have vastly different challenges.  

    Also, IMHO, there would need to be equal representation of blue collar/white collar citizens.

    And after the 'fusing' of the retreat data, then what?


    by Aunt Sam on Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:15pm

    The representation isn't suppose to be fair.  It is based on the percentage as represented in the general population.  If participants are chosen at random, then whites, for instance, who represent nearly three quarters of the population, are going to be selected more often than other races.  Same goes for the metropolitan area residents.

    In this fashion it does represent in a sense how our government functions.  Just doing this little exercise, one can see how government gets skewered.  Even if you take away campaign finance issues, there are certain populations and demographics that will be able to have more influence than others if one looks at from a simple majority approach. 

    This is part of the challenge if one thinks about the facilitator role.  If someone who notices the dominance of the whites, for instance, and believes that various races or ethnicities should have a voice, then how does one deal with this dominance?  The same or similar challenges occur in the real world. 

    Because the outcomes of the retreat - a national vision to put it broadly -would then be used to create a national vision with all of the other retreats. 

    Again, if the retreat represents the percentages out there - then this would be the same mix of people one would face in developing a national movement. 

    So we are looking for common ground.  It isn't so easy in this country.  If one is coming from the "very liberal" position, then it will be difficult to achieve much of one's agenda.  It doesn't mean one can't voice that opinion.  But given the predominance of those coming from other positions, the likelihood of persuading the others may not be in the cards.

    This retreat scenario is just something I am using to entertain myself in essence.  I haven't worked out all the details.  But that is where the fun is at, at least for me.  For instance, would it be simple majority to agree to something or would there need a larger majority.  If one with consensus, there is little chance much would be produced when everyone has to sign off on it. 


    by Elusive Trope on Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:50pm

    I understand the basis for the representation dynamic.

    However, any process beginning with the declaration.....

    'The representation isn't suppose to be fair.'

    seems to me needs to deliver criteria that, at the very least, has a format which enables a process to achieve something that is better than the status quo. Or else, why bother?

    IMHO, leveling the playing field is mandatory if the goal is for this process to be widely embraced as credible, useful and worthy of note. As stated, the configurations will most likely insure skewed results akin to what is already in place. If not in fact, then definitely in perception.


    by Aunt Sam on Fri, 01/13/2012 - 2:03pm

    I guess my point would be the playing field is not level out there - which is why it is an issue.  If one creates a group which has the playing field leveled to begin with, then whatever outcome is generated by the group is not likely to get the buy-in from the groups which are resisting the playing field from being leveled.  The reason that the playing field remains unleveled is that those who are over-represented so to say are able to resist any changes.  Why are they resisting?  Is there some approach and angle we can take that will actually be effective in achieving this outcome?

    So one can have as one of the goals of the retreat: to achieve a level playing field (I'm just throwing that wording out there, but one could come up with something better of course).  The challenge is how to not only get buy-in to the idea through effective meeting facilitation, but also develop actual strategies to achieve this goal back in the "real" world. 

    Another way of looking at it - if one cannot achieve these goals in a retreat with this kind of representation which reflects the current country - then I suppose one has to turn to anyone who is trying to achieve progressive social and environmental change in this country and say "why bother?"

    I would add that as facilitator, one is able to have some influence on the retreat - the initial agenda, how the visioning process happens, etc.  So being from the liberal side of things, one is able to help steer the process in a way that would facilitate a compensation for something like lack of representation.   Of course, one does have to be subtle because if one alienates the conservative wing of the retreat, no much is going to get done.


    by Elusive Trope on Fri, 01/13/2012 - 2:57pm

    Here is one site which provides some general information about the visioning processes that many cities and counties around the country are conducting.

    http://www.nh.gov/oep/resourcelibrary/referencelibrary/m/masterplan/prep...

    (I have to admit I would think about renaming the end product the "Master Plan" for obvious reasons.)


    by Elusive Trope on Fri, 01/13/2012 - 12:55pm

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