The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    We won today

    By Flavius on Tue, 01/21/2020 - 11:03pm |

    The Democrats had a plan and the Reps had a train to catch..Or something. Maybe read about the Dixie Highway. Or  sing Dixie.Or the Horst Wessel Lied.

    If we started with a 53% chance of winning in November we ended with 53% + something.

    If you skipped it,  the Dems took advantage  of their  month's  preparation to locate their top 50 Impeachment vids  .  The Reps took advantage of it to practice repeating last month's script..

     

    Comments

    The question is why Trump's re-election is still a possibility.


    by rmrd0000 on Tue, 01/21/2020 - 11:17pm

    does look like the fans are currently a minority everywhere:

    Even in battleground states and in swing counties, more people want to see Trump removed from office than approve of the job he's doing as president. https://t.co/K7VeuwY3eY pic.twitter.com/EbLc4SJFJc

    — Philip Bump (@pbump) January 22, 2020

    Warning, however: the impeachment managers are not yet done with boring robotic reading of prepared texts.  Scopes monkey trial high drama this is not. Some of the president's team, on the other hand, seem to know how to orate and emote confidently.


    by artappraiser on Wed, 01/22/2020 - 12:30am

    but oh my goodness, Nadler and Cippolone just got yelled at for getting a teeny bit feisty:

    Chief Justice Roberts "admonishes" both the House impeachment managers and President's counsel following remarks by Nadler and Cipollone: "Those addressing the Senate should remember where they are."

    — Craig Caplan (@CraigCaplan) January 22, 2020

    Chief Justice Roberts is admonishing the House managers and the White House counsel (!)

    "They are addressing the world's greatest deliberative body"

    — Burgess Everett (@burgessev) January 22, 2020

     


    by artappraiser on Wed, 01/22/2020 - 12:59am

    It's a shitshow in a monkey house, very little deliberation going on. But U-S-A! Exceptionalism!


    by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 01/22/2020 - 1:06am

    Dirty tricks tonight:


    by artappraiser on Wed, 01/22/2020 - 12:40am

    Cute. Aside from news stories, "let's do lunch" comments, and (most of the addresses...) But all those names on the rap sheet? Wait for Jason Leopard's further FOIA requests - ain't over til over.


    by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 01/22/2020 - 1:04am

    We won   today  yesterday.

    At my age that's my idea of an original remark. 

    Sort of like the Republicans  yesterday. Whose nearest thing to  stimulation  was shouting at Nadler , which provided a  useful service  in  partially waking up  their die hard (if only) supporters before they fell  off the couch. And the Chief Justice.

    The Democrats'  provided  something of the same service by their interpolation of  month old video clips . If nothing else reminding me to bring the  popcorn today.

    I think it's safe to say that no one who wasn't  already a supporter was converted yesterday by Sekulo??( I'll look it up) whereas one of advantage  of the Dems vids was some increase of credibility by demonstrating that there were real live human beings (not politicians!) who agreed with them.

     

     


    by Flavius on Wed, 01/22/2020 - 8:16am

    Wednesday  afternoon.

    Adam Schiff's   "House Managers' case" was sufficiently convincing  the Republican's -even though they want, and intend , to vote against convicting  Trump -will need an escape hatch.

    Which Trump and McConnell ,having  realized , will  shift to relying on  the Dershowitz ploy ,essentially  that the grounds  for a Presidential Conviction  are  that he has stopped breathing . Short of which ,even ,hypothetically , conceding  the Democrats'  case  conviction would be excessive

    The rest of the Republican defense will be that Gerry Nadler  (D'Amato called him Wadler) is a bad man.

    Along  with which they'll mumble about being  willing to offer a "Witness " deal (provided it included the Bidens) .Which won't fly.

    One way or another  sufficient  citizens will want Donald to  remain in office until   November  that he will after which he'll go back to playing  golf,grabbing crotches and stiffing Melania and there Divorce settelement.


    by Flavius on Wed, 01/22/2020 - 5:48pm

    The story so far

    is the sheer competence of our side. We couldn't have reasonably  expected them to have done better. 

    You mean they were perfect?  Of course not. Are you? I'm not.

    They were/are a bunch of , not average , more than that. Say a bunch of ,on the average, somewhat talented people rising to the occasion.

    Needed to be   because their opponent. Singular . i.e. The Donaldsire. Is as seriously  below average as say Adam is above. 

    The bible says "The  abyss calls out to the abyss."  

    Today was the mirror image.


    by Flavius on Wed, 01/22/2020 - 10:27pm

    More on the 40% who approve of Trump comprised of the 33% right-wingnuts who have always been with us and then 7 to 9% we don't know why exactly. By Aaron Blake @ WaPo​ Weds. night in Analysis: A sizable chunk of Trump’s base thinks he has broken the law. Many of those people remain in his corner:

    [....] here’s the thing: Even if Democrats did accuse Trump of a crime and perhaps even if they proved it, it probably wouldn’t be good enough.

    A new Pew Research Center poll shows the barrier Democrats face in removing Trump from office or even in getting GOP senators to vote with them on new witnesses and evidence. The poll shows 32 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning voters say Trump has “definitely” or “probably” done illegal things since he launched his campaign for president. But even among that smaller group of more Trump-critical voters, they strongly oppose removing him from office. Fully 59 percent of those who believe Trump has probably committed crimes say he should not be removed, while just 38 percent say he should.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    The poll question, as with all poll questions, is subject to caveats and nuances. Most of those Republican and GOP-leaning voters, importantly, only say Trump has “probably” committed a crime (23 percent) rather than that he “definitely” has (9 percent). Perhaps they don’t believe you should be removed from office based on something that isn’t completely proved, which is reasonable. Maybe a few of them even have more innocuous crimes in mind, rather than obstruction of justice or public corruption.

    But this is also a sizable portion of Trump’s base — one-third — that volunteered to a pollster that they believe a GOP president has broken the law since he entered politics, and they have come down decisively against removing him from office. And not only have they come down decisively against such a drastic step; they also support him. The same poll shows just 18 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning voters disapprove of Trump.

    In other words, at least around half of GOP-leaning voters and Republicans who think Trump has broken the law still don’t disapprove of him.

    The new poll suggests a growing number of Republicans — and people overall — are entertaining the idea that Trump has broken the law [....]


    by artappraiser on Thu, 01/23/2020 - 12:08am

    Yes, he's rattled. That and two cents will get ya?

    Trump sets record for tweets as president on day House makes impeachment case

    By Brett Samuels @ TheHill.com, Jan. 22 6:31 pm

    President Trump on Wednesday shattered his previous record for most tweets in a day since taking office, tweeting more than 130 times while House Democrats made their opening arguments in his impeachment trial.

    The president had tweeted 132 times as of 6:20 p.m., according to Factbase Feed, a data firm that tracks Trump's tweets, speeches and daily activities. That number tops his previous personal high of 123 tweets in a day.

    Trump also set a personal record for retweets in a day as president with more than 110, according to Factbase [....]

    Really, at this point with first term near ending, rather than him as president, it's more of a major problem that we have a significant minority that hates elites so much that they would rather have a populist criminal in the top office. That's the real problem: what's in the Pew poll, why there are so many that like having someone with top power dissing elites and breaking rules and upsetting applecarts all the time. They know it's against our creed and the rules and they like it still and they don't care if the reason is narcissism, either, they want disruption?


    by artappraiser on Thu, 01/23/2020 - 12:25am

    Or "none of the above". 

    Objection to immigrants, to Blacks,  to abortion , to the intrusion of the "nanny state" , to paying taxes for whatever reason..

    Or  conversely "positive "  motivations.  A  "patriotic"  desire for the US to be seen as  "Great" . For all its citizens. Perhaps as an antidote of personal feeling of insignificance.. Or not, just for its own sake.

    Any one , several or all of the above  may still  be  combined with personal altruism. or compassion.Any deplorable might   come  out to push my car in the snow. Or give me their seat on the #7. 

    Life is complicated,

     

    Read the last 3 pages of the Brothers Karamazov once a year.

     


    by Flavius on Thu, 01/23/2020 - 7:26am

    Fox News' chief legal analyst thinks a case has been made for conviction.

    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trumps-senate-impeachment-trial-judge-andrew-napolitano


    by rmrd0000 on Thu, 01/23/2020 - 8:47am

    Napolitano has long been on the iuts with the rest. A shame Shep Smith left.


    by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 01/23/2020 - 10:09am

    Heard a rumor that Shep may find a spot at MSNBC. Good luck to Chuck Todd.


    by rmrd0000 on Thu, 01/23/2020 - 12:18pm

     

    The next verse, the same as the first pretty much summarizes today's hearings.

    And tonight's Dagblog.

    In Washington it was "once more with feeli  "  not really. ,Rather , once more which differed yesterday only to the extent of  an even more emotional Adam .Schiff wrap up.  Well done,and clearly  sincere. Again.

    If they have time l think they should cash in their chips and let Mitch try to fill 16 hours. 

    We were across the goal line yesterday. Today? Hmn. We'd have been better off if we had just run down the clock..

     


    by Flavius on Thu, 01/23/2020 - 11:34pm

    cause I know you are sometimes a fan, Financial Times reports "boring" is a GOP talking point:

    Democrats delved into allegations of Donald Trump’s abuse of office, while Republicans landed on a new talking point: the impeachment trial is repetitive and boring. Here are the highlights from Day 3: https://t.co/KYnGY8luLx

    — Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) January 24, 2020

    by artappraiser on Fri, 01/24/2020 - 12:05am

    Johnny Cochran? "If you don't pizzazz, you must free his ass"?


    by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 01/24/2020 - 12:11am

    Republicans are falling asleep and leaving the Senate floor. I think that is a literal crime. Republicans don't matter. People are talking about the strength of the case made by the Democrats. Republicans, who are usually loud at work, now only talk to each other and in whispers. Democrats best expectations. Playing testimony was brilliant.


    by rmrd0000 on Fri, 01/24/2020 - 7:44am

    Weds: '21 Empty Seats’: More Than One-Third of GOP Senators Reportedly Left Room During Schiff’s Speech

    by  @ LawandCrime.com,  5:55 pm, January 22nd, 2020

    A large bloc of Republican Senators reportedly skipped large portions of Wednesday’s impeachment trial, flouting Senate rules requiring them to remain in their seats at all times during the proceedings, according to journalist Michael McAuliff [...]


    by artappraiser on Fri, 01/24/2020 - 12:02am

    I was wrong. Happens to the best of people . And me.

    For the  jury that counts- the voters - presumably not over-the-hill has-bins like your correspondent- the portion of trial they heard was orderly and informative. And going to affect voting.

    As for Schiff's occasional emotional set pieces I suppose law schools teach employing them. Wake's up the audience while there's  time to  get a night's sleep.Even accepting  Schiff's sincerity I prefer facts  Johnnie Cochran's right:   boring =s winning.

    I suspect  thoughtful republicans (if not a contradiction in terms) have been convinced but not to the extent of wanting to convict:

    o A bridge too far with respect to delaying the delivery of assistance. It finally got there.

    o With respect to  stone walling the investigation ,  it can't be condoned. For punishment  suspend the Trial  and  order  Administration employees to comply with subpoenas. Which might cause Donald to resign.Please.

     

     


    by Flavius on Fri, 01/24/2020 - 11:32am

    There's two audiences to consider:1)  senators 4) their constituents.

    Senators thinking about what their constituents think rather than throwing that all out and going with their conscience would be one thing.

    Cynical me thinks most of them are not willing to do the conscience thing, is not likely, not looking for the medals of honor in the history book, just looking to stay in the biz, them's that think that "honorable" way have already quit (i.e. Flake. Or Romney types with no skin in the game.) So in that case, it would be how the Schiff act et. al. is playing with the constituents, or not.

    If it's a given that most are thinking of what their constituents think, they have already sold out their principles. It's not much further to ponder what a "your head will be on pike" threat actually might mean. I bet more of the GOP Senators were thinking about what "your head on your pike" actually might mean while they pretended to listen to Adam Schiff. And trying to decide whether they could weather the head on the pike. Get what I am saying?


    by artappraiser on Fri, 01/24/2020 - 8:21pm

    I swear, I wrote the above comment, then got in the car to go to the Rite-Aid and on NPR on the car radio I heard "head on a pike" brought up live on the floor of the Senate. Too weird! Anyhew, now I am home I see on twitter that talking about head on a pike on the Senate floor has caused much commotion. Like this for one example:

    Dems went hard, then pulled back, apparently in hopes of winning the handful of GOP votes they can get.

    And then: pic.twitter.com/yq53RTGeLZ

    — Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) January 25, 2020

     


    by artappraiser on Fri, 01/24/2020 - 9:50pm

    MIssed " your head will be on pike"  in favor of "The Firebird". Means  I'm not qualified to comment.

    So I won't.


    by Flavius on Sat, 01/25/2020 - 10:45am

    what are the ladies up to?

    Caption: A sketch of Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska during the impeachment trial of President Trump. "They seem to be ... following along the arguments very closely," says sketch artist Art Lien.Credit: Kisha Ravi/NPR

    illustration from

    Sketch Artist Captures 'Something Unusual' At Senate Trial  January 24, 20206:27 PM ET Heard on All Things Considered. Several other illustrations at link.


    by artappraiser on Fri, 01/24/2020 - 10:28pm

    an interesting chat on Murkowski:

    :

     


    by artappraiser on Sat, 01/25/2020 - 12:16am

    This begs the question of Flav's post: who is "we"? and "win" what?

    CNN's Axelrod says impeachment didn't come up until 80 minutes into focus group

    By Joe Concha @ TheHill.com - 01/24/20 10:04 PM EST

    Former Obama chief strategist David Axelrod said he attended a focus group with Democratic voters in Chicago on Friday, describing the gathering as "chilling" because impeachment "didn't come up" until more than an hour into the session despite it taking place amid the Senate trial of President Trump.

    Axelrod, who serves as a political analyst on CNN, shared about his experience during an interview with network anchor Erin Burnett on "OutFront" on Friday night, as Democratic House impeachment managers made their final arguments in the trial before White House lawyers begin their defense of the president on Saturday.

    "I was in a focus group this morning for the Institute for Politics here at the University of Chicago with some Chicago Democratic voters, and it was chilling to hear them talk about this," Axelrod said. "Because impeachment didn’t come up, no one volunteered it, for 80 minutes into the focus group, and we’re right in the middle of the trial."

    "When it came up, they said, you know, it's terrible what he did, the case has been proven, but we know how it's going to turn out," Axelrod continued. "So we're not really that interested, we're ready to move on."

    "And I think that's what Mitch McConnell and the president and the White House are banking on: [....]


    by artappraiser on Sat, 01/25/2020 - 8:10pm

    this says to me there's been a win against Trump's ego, don't know if that's good or bad as far as eventual outcome:


    by artappraiser on Sat, 01/25/2020 - 8:32pm

    That's not surprising. It's how I feel. I'm not watching it on tv nor am I following every detail in the news I read. But that doesn't mean it's good for the president. We've already decided he's guilty, and that means most of the moderate democrats, so what every defense he puts up we won't see. It adds to the burning anger we feel for Trump and his most dedicated followers. People, a majority according to the polls think he's guilty and will express that to friends and acquaintances. And perhaps some of those on the fence will be moved to our side. 


    by ocean-kat on Sat, 01/25/2020 - 9:46pm

    I think Trump managed to taint the entire Republican party. The result could be a Democratic majority in the House and the Senate. Hopefully, it also means possible election of a Democratic President. This time around, I don't think the Democratic majority will be as willing to reach across the aisle as Democrats were in the Obama administration. The Republicans may have jumped the shark.


    by rmrd0000 on Sat, 01/25/2020 - 10:46pm

    While I can hope for that, I had another phone call today that the heartland is still bolstering Trump, praising those jobs he created vs the lack of results and welfare cases from "the other guy". Hopefully the younger demo's turning, but I remain worried.


    by PeraclesPlease on Sat, 01/25/2020 - 11:04pm

    Er some people just gave the contents of the draft of Bolton's "explosive account" about the Ukraine matter for his book to Maggie & Michael Schmidt of the NYTimes​:

    SCOOP on Bolton’s unpublished manuscript:
    Trump told Bolton that he wanted $391 million in aid to Ukraine frozen until officials there helped with investigations into the Bidens, manuscript sayshttps://t.co/rWoNl3qs0B
    By @maggieNYT @nytmike

    — Clifford Levy (@cliffordlevy) January 26, 2020

    excerpt:

    [....] Mr. Bolton’s explosive account of the matter at the center of Mr. Trump’s impeachment trial, the third in American history, was included in drafts of a manuscript he has circulated in recent weeks to close associates. He also sent a draft to the White House for a standard review process for some current and former administration officials who write books.

    Multiple people described Mr. Bolton’s account of the Ukraine affair.

    The book presents an outline of what Mr. Bolton might testify to if he is called as a witness in the Senate impeachment trial, the people said. The White House could use the pre-publication review process, which has no set time frame, to delay or even kill the book’s publication or omit key passages [....]


    by artappraiser on Sun, 01/26/2020 - 6:12pm

    Intriguing point on Bolton book effect that I just ran across at DKos:

    Trump plans victory lap tour after throwing Republican Senators under the bus

    ....The White House sat on this fact long enough that Republican Senators stuck their neck out there and swore loyalty oaths to the President, only now discover the man with the mustache may make them all fools. When US Senators are wondering what happened to them, what exactly should the president be doing? Well, planning a year-long party of sorts, right?...

    More same:

    enlightened made me go back and find something else I just saw, I thought "oh I see, Senator Collins doesn't want to be thrown under the bus" when later conservative constituents who like Bolton types want to know "why didn't you do soemthing about the idiot?"


    by artappraiser on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 12:04pm

    Sen. Angus King of ME sez (he who might communicate with Sen. Collins once in a while?)

     


    by artappraiser on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 10:29pm

    "accompanied by a White House press aide" caught my eye; they just picked up their new talking points?


    by artappraiser on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 12:17pm

    The Drumpf-approved talking points are by Dan Bogino, which may or may not agree with what WH staff plans to do, one never knows:

     


    by artappraiser on Mon, 01/27/2020 - 12:48pm