The peak oil book on Indonesia is that they had to leave OPEC in 1994 when it became clear they had become a net importer of oil. But they do have significant natural gas deposits.

Interesting. Sounds as if a sleeping giant is beginning to awaken.

I read an article a few years back where the USAF sent a couple of squadrons over to India to play some air-to-air wargames. The IAF were one step ahead of the USAF all the way. Seems their pilots took their mission objecives dead serious to the point where they anticipated the USAF posture and neutralized their attack and countered with their own attack. It surprised the hell out of the US pilots...they weren't expecting a determined advasary. Of course, it was only a game and maybe the USAF was playing the IAF is see what tactics they employed...who knows..

Then there's China flexing their military muscle, using their economic accupuncture on the global economy, and consolidating a solid manufacturing base to service their needs without assistance from the outside. And along with them are the smaller Asian countries with natural resources that can add to China's power.

Finally, there's Australia...a huge behemonth of natural resources and talent that has yet to be nurtured, cultured and seasoned as a major global economic leader, but has the capability to respond to shifts in the demands of the global market place when terms are in their favor. Their turn at bat may just be around the corner.

All three have the same thing in common...they've been overlooked for too long. Now that the rest of the world is passing their peaks and exhusting their natural resources, their time may be at hand.

I have to admit I haven't been paying that much attention to politics and economics over here.

Hah!  I know what you mean.  I was reading some discussions about US-German relations recently, and I realized I had no clue about any of it.  I mean, I could you a fair amount about what I've observed about everyday German culture -- and in somewhat less detail about the politics of my local area.  My language skills are only barely at the point were I can read the newspapers!  But it's funny how you can be straddled between two worlds and still miss the big picture on how they connect.

So, that's my take. I'm sure there are other people vastly more qualified than I am to look at all the pieces and make predictions.

Well what you wrote was precisely what I was hoping to get! Maybe even more slong the lines of stream-of-consciousness reactions from the "gal on the street," wasn't looking for a white paper.

Actually, I don't find rigorous debate or "he said, then she said" counterpoint analysis very useful...dichotomies, Manichaeism etc.--bleh, my brain does not work that way, just seems like a waste of time. Give me a relatively good analysis and then lots more input on it, not a courtroom case made by opposing advocates.

Stuff like this is real observations my brain can really do something with: Consumerism in America has NOTHING on consumerism in Indonesia and There are a lot of foreigners making a lot of money here. They are generalizations the expert analysts don't dare blurt out in that way. Of course, I don't put all my trsut in one person's eyes, but taking observations like yours and mixing them with a lot of other things is so helpful! And adding the cavaets, the humility of admitting to not totally having your bearings ala "I might have this wrong, but this is what I am seeing," (like Paige also does in her comment,) that just makes it all the more useful.

Thank you for taking the time to jot down some thoughts on it! I know how it is to be trying to get through each day in a totally different world, I don't know how you find time to blog at all.

Very interesting.  Thanks for writing, Orlando.  Two questions:

4. Consumerism in America has NOTHING on consumerism in Indonesia. While the government might be making noise about military equipment and joint exercises, it's all about trade. Indonesia needs consumer goods for the insatiable appetites of its citizens--clothing, electronics, and whatever else is for sale, Indonesians are buying. The U.S. is going to lose that battle.

Do you mean the battle to get those sales?

5. In my opinion, Indonesia has the building blocks to join the RICE countries in the new economic world order. They have to seriously address the corruption before that can happen--and honestly, I don't know how they will do it. But, if they manage it, the next obstacle is infrastructure. To get public transportation in Jakarta and better roads and clean water countrywide, Indonesia is going to need boatloads of money. The U.S. is going to lose that battle as well.

Which battle do you mean here?  The battle to earn interest off of loans for those infrastructure needs?