The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age
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    Republican Presidential Candidates by the Numbers

    Gallup has a new poll out, ranking Repbulican presidential hopefuls. The list includes three candidates that Articleman and I didn't think to mention in our recent email exhange:

    17% Mitt Romney

    15% Sarah Palin

    10% Rand Paul

    9% New Gingrich

    8% Herman Cain

    6% Tim Pawlenty

    5% Michele Bachmann

    2% John Huntsman

    2% Gary Johnson

    2% Rick Santorum

    Interesting, right? It's too early to mean much, but for comparison's sake, in June 2007, Gallup's polling looked like this:

    28% Rudy Giuliani

    19% Fred Thompson

    18% John McCain

    7% Mitt Romney

    7% Newt Gingrich

    I never took Fred Thompson particularly seriously as a candidate, but at least I knew who he was. Gary Johnson? Also, I kind of love that Rand Paul is polling so high while his father is completely missing from the list. Wouldn't it be fun to be a fly on the wall at those family get-togethers? I honestly can't take any of them seriously at this point. Romney's out in front, but barely. I still say Pawlenty probably has the best shot of any of them, because he seems normal by comparison.

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    "I kind of love that Rand Paul is polling so high while his father is completely missing from the list."

    Well, the Gallup site pretty clearly says Ron Paul not Rand Paul for this poll.....


    That is just a typo, the number is for Ron Paul.  You can check the gallup poll website for the actual numbers (http://www.gallup.com/poll/147806/Romney-Palin-Lead-Reduced-GOP-Field-2012.aspx).


    That's what I get for trusting a report from the source, instead of the source. 

    I'd still like to be a fly on the wall though.


    Heh, Gary Johnson. He was governor of NM when I was in college there. Self made multimillionaire (ironically, doing construction work for the state, but an actually principled Libertarian. During his second term as governor, after being clear he'd not seek another, he came out for marijuana legalization, drawing the ire of the very provincial attitudes that rule he state's social culture. I met him a few times and for what it's worth' like him personally and enjoyed talking with him, even though pot legalization was the only policy thing he had going for him.

    That field is just so laughably weak. You look at it and you have to think the more interesting question is - who is the sleeper independent candidate? Cuz none of these guys and gals is winning the general.

    If the economy goes south and Obama's approvals drift back to 40%, the big money is gonna want somewhere else to go, and it ain't Palin or T-Paw or Rand Paul for pete's sake. I don't know who that candidate is, but remember '92 and that little guy with the big ears who led both big-party candidates before imploding...?


    Of course the "independent" candidate will be a right winger of some kind (like Perot). My basic feeling is that we'll get two Republicans in the general: a "reasonable" Republican like Romney or Pawlenty as the official nominee and then a red-meat red-state Tea Party independent. Unless Palin claws her way to the nomination, when we'll get some token sane "centrist" Republican as an independent (a la Anderson in 1980).


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