The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Sunday Morning - Nate Silver pegs Obama's likelihood of victory at 85% . . . but

    By HSG on Sun, 11/04/2012 - 10:58am | Politics

    I don't read yesterday's (and this morning's polls) as that favorable.  What gives?  Very early Saturday morning (I'm going by east coast time throughout this post), Nate explained that the President's chance of winning was over 80% because of the 22 polls of swing states published Friday, he led in 19 and trailed in only 1.  This seemed sensible.  On Saturday, there were fewer published polls (at least listed at Real Clear Politics) and a couple of these were not positive for Obama.  The most worrisome are a Tampa Bay Times Florida poll that shows Romney +6 and, perhaps even more troubling, a University of New Hampshire poll showing a tie in the Granite State.  The Saturday polls that show Obama ahead were not exceptionally strong for him.  For example, PPP (a firm that sometimes works for Democrats and liberal organizations) has Obama only +3 in Wisconsin.  Despite this apparently more equivocal data, Nate bumped Obama's probability of prevailing from about 81% to the above-mentioned 85%. 

    Early this morning, two firms with a right-leaning bias published polls of Pennsylvania and Michigan.  Susquehanna shows PA tied and Baydoun-Foster shows MI Romney +1.  So, I have two questions: 1) what did Nate's model see in Saturday's published data that moved Obama up and 2) despite Nate's model which has both PA and MI solidly blue and NH a paler shade, are these three states in play?

    Topics: 
    Politics

    Comments

    Nate just explained himself at fivethirtyeight.com.  He views the Susquehanna tie in PA as favorable to Obama since Susquehanna has been biased by up to 5 points towards the Republican candidate and (now I'm speculating as to what's in Silver's model) given that 1) recent polls from Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin show all three solidly blue plus 2) there has really been no good news for Romney in Ohio, the race is starting to slip away from him.  I wish I were as sanguine but Nate, as usual and like Articleman, presents a persuasive case for a good outcome.  One other point: many here are rightly concerned about election fraud but Nate has noted that in recent elections the state polls have very accurately predicted outcomes.  This would not be the case if a significant number of Democratic votes had been suppressed.


    by HSG on Sun, 11/04/2012 - 12:05pm

    A few polls on MSNBC show a 'tightening' race.

    I dunno anymore.

    If something were really happening out there, Nate would nail it!

    I think that Obama is going to see 303+ electoral votes.

    And I think the race will be called by the time Cal closes its polls.

    On Tuesday we must rely on repub manufactured voting machines.

    ha


    by Richard Day on Sun, 11/04/2012 - 1:56pm

    You have to see this!

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/04/ohio-early-voting_n_2073287.html


    by Aunt Sam on Sun, 11/04/2012 - 5:16pm

    The Repubs know that they can't make a legitimate case they'll win Ohio so they throw some other states that none of the pundits have been watching into the mix.  Get some polls to show it is tight in those states and they're able to keep their base hopeful.  It's pretty simple. Romney can possibly lose FL if he can't get turn out in central part of the state.  Any sense of doom will doom them.


    by Elusive Trope on Sun, 11/04/2012 - 2:45pm

    I must not read any more about polls or election day forecasts.  I need to adopt the zen attitude and what will be, will be  -  the die is cast.  Because if I don't I am fearful I will go krazy.

    Florida closed down a early voting  location ahead of schedule because too many people showed up to cast their votes (most couldn't cast their ballots).  Ohio's early voting lines are insane and how many will be turned away, ne'er able to vote?  Something is terribly wrong.


    by Aunt Sam on Sun, 11/04/2012 - 3:11pm

    I know what you mean.  This has driven me over the edge.  I wish I could find a dark whole and stay there until Wednesday morning.  If it wasn't for Nate Silver, I would be in a strait jacket by now. 


    by Bullybaby1 (not verified) on Sun, 11/04/2012 - 11:02pm

    Articleman who posts on the polls provides me with my mellowing out fix and keeps hope alive.  His posts will calm you while they deliver the best analysis anywhere.  I also access Nate's blog, it provides me with a second layer.  Both have kept me from running through the streets screaming, 'Valium, anyone got some valium? OMG help me please.'  It wouldn't be pretty. 

    Hope you hang around, sounds like you'd fit right in here.  Come back and stay awhile.


    by Aunt Sam on Sun, 11/04/2012 - 11:27pm