The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age
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    Gaza war fallout: Abbas is toast

    By acanuck on Fri, 01/23/2009 - 9:28pm |
    There are lots of tactical, political, strategic and diplomatic lessons to be drawn from the Gaza "war." 
    But there is one crucial conclusion President Obama must grasp for his Mideast peace efforts to stand any chance of success: Palestinian "President" Mahmoud Abbas is not and can not be part of the solution.
    Over his four years in power, the Separation Wall rose, settlements grew, peace talks languished and conditions in both the West Bank and Gaza worsened. Though democratically elected, Abbas -- unlike Yasser Arafat -- always lacked any emotional connection to the people he claimed to represent. The recent events in Gaza, which saw him parroting Israeli talking points against Hamas while formally denouncing the Israeli assault, have simply confirmed his irrelevance.
    On Wednesday -- three days after Israeli troops began withdrawing! -- Abbas's Fatah faction called for massive protests against the assault. By contrast, during the 22 days Gaza was actually being pummelled, Abbas had banned demonstrations, arresting and beating Hamas organizers.
    Some aren't even dissembling anymore. Yasser Abed Rabbo, one of Abbas's top aides, told Israeli media he had hoped the assault would continue until Hamas was overthrown. "It was a big mistake to end the war this way," he said. "The fact that Hamas is still in power is bad for all."
    So the Palestinian Authority's public demand for a ceasefire was just smoke and mirrors. Who was this spin supposed to fool? Let's be clear: virtually no Palestinian believes any longer that Abbas speaks for their interests or in their defence.
    Obama has at most a few months to figure out a viable course. Not only does Abbas lack popular support, his legitimacy is in question. There are competing legal arguments about whether his term is four years or five; if it's four, he ceased being president Jan. 9. Either way, a new election is due in less than a year. Without massive fraud and coercion, Abbas will lose.
    If Obama really wants a secular, non-Hamas Palestinian presidency, there is just one viable option: prod Israel into releasing Marwan Bargouthi from prison. The popular leader of Fatah's "youth" wing, Bargouthi is probably the one secular leader Hamas respects enough to serve under.
    Israel may already be open to the idea, having signaled renewed interest in a prisoner swap for captured soldier Gilad Shalit. Bargouthi is near the top of Hamas's list of 1,000-plus swapees.
    One more reason to hope Shalit survived the bombardment of Gaza.